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Clinical Prediction Models for Cardiovascular Disease: Tufts Predictive Analytics and Comparative Effectiveness Clinical Prediction Model Database.

ABSTRACT: Clinical prediction models (CPMs) estimate the probability of clinical outcomes and hold the potential to improve decision making and individualize care. For patients with cardiovascular disease, there are numerous CPMs available although the extent of this literature is not well described.We conducted a systematic review for articles containing CPMs for cardiovascular disease published between January 1990 and May 2012. Cardiovascular disease includes coronary heart disease, heart failure, arrhythmias, stroke, venous thromboembolism, and peripheral vascular disease. We created a novel database and characterized CPMs based on the stage of development, population under study, performance, covariates, and predicted outcomes. There are 796 models included in this database. The number of CPMs published each year is increasing steadily over time. Seven hundred seventeen (90%) are de novo CPMs, 21 (3%) are CPM recalibrations, and 58 (7%) are CPM adaptations. This database contains CPMs for 31 index conditions, including 215 CPMs for patients with coronary artery disease, 168 CPMs for population samples, and 79 models for patients with heart failure. There are 77 distinct index/outcome pairings. Of the de novo models in this database, 450 (63%) report a c-statistic and 259 (36%) report some information on calibration.There is an abundance of CPMs available for a wide assortment of cardiovascular disease conditions, with substantial redundancy in the literature. The comparative performance of these models, the consistency of effects and risk estimates across models and the actual and potential clinical impact of this body of literature is poorly understood.

SUBMITTER: Wessler BS

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4512876 | biostudies-literature | 2015 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Clinical Prediction Models for Cardiovascular Disease: Tufts Predictive Analytics and Comparative Effectiveness Clinical Prediction Model Database.

Wessler Benjamin S BS Lai Yh Lana L Kramer Whitney W Cangelosi Michael M Raman Gowri G Lutz Jennifer S JS Kent David M DM

Circulation. Cardiovascular quality and outcomes 20150707 4

<h4>Background</h4>Clinical prediction models (CPMs) estimate the probability of clinical outcomes and hold the potential to improve decision making and individualize care. For patients with cardiovascular disease, there are numerous CPMs available although the extent of this literature is not well described.<h4>Methods and results</h4>We conducted a systematic review for articles containing CPMs for cardiovascular disease published between January 1990 and May 2012. Cardiovascular disease inclu ...[more]

PMID: 26152680

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Project description:BackgroundClinical predictive models (CPMs) estimate the probability of clinical outcomes and hold the potential to improve decision-making and individualize care. The Tufts Predictive Analytics and Comparative Effectiveness (PACE) CPM Registry is a comprehensive database of cardiovascular disease (CVD) CPMs. The Registry was last updated in 2012, and there continues to be substantial growth in the number of available CPMs.MethodsWe updated a systematic review of CPMs for CVD to include articles published from January 1990 to March 2015. CVD includes coronary artery disease (CAD), congestive heart failure (CHF), arrhythmias, stroke, venous thromboembolism (VTE), and peripheral vascular disease (PVD). The updated Registry characterizes CPMs based on population under study, model performance, covariates, and predicted outcomes.ResultsThe Registry includes 747 articles presenting 1083 models, including both prognostic (n = 1060) and diagnostic (n = 23) CPMs representing 183 distinct index condition/outcome pairs. There was a threefold increase in the number of CPMs published between 2005 and 2014, compared to the prior 10-year interval from 1995 to 2004. The majority of CPMs were derived from either North American (n = 455, 42%) or European (n = 344, 32%) populations. The database contains 265 CPMs predicting outcomes for patients with coronary artery disease, 196 CPMs for population samples at risk for incident CVD, and 158 models for patients with stroke. Approximately two thirds (n = 701, 65%) of CPMs report a c-statistic, with a median reported c-statistic of 0.77 (IQR, 0.05). Of the CPMs reporting validations, only 333 (57%) report some measure of model calibration. Reporting of discrimination but not calibration is improving over time (p for trend < 0.0001 and 0.39 respectively).ConclusionsThere is substantial redundancy of CPMs for a wide spectrum of CVD conditions. While the number of CPMs continues to increase, model performance is often inadequately reported and calibration is infrequently assessed. More work is needed to understand the potential impact of this literature.

Project description:BackgroundOnline pharmacies have grown significantly in recent years, from US $29.35 billion in 2014 to an expected US $128 billion in 2023 worldwide. Although legitimate online pharmacies (LOPs) provide a channel of convenience and potentially lower costs for patients, illicit online pharmacies (IOPs) open the doors to unfettered access to prescription drugs, controlled substances (eg, opioids), and potentially counterfeits, posing a dramatic risk to the drug supply chain and the health of the patient. Unfortunately, we know little about IOPs, and even identifying and monitoring IOPs is challenging because of the large number of online pharmacies (at least 30,000-35,000) and the dynamic nature of the online channel (online pharmacies open and shut down easily).ObjectiveThis study aims to increase our understanding of IOPs through web data traffic analysis and propose a novel framework using referral links to predict and identify IOPs, the first step in fighting IOPs.MethodsWe first collected web traffic and engagement data to study and compare how consumers access and engage with LOPs and IOPs. We then proposed a simple but novel framework for predicting the status of online pharmacies (legitimate or illicit) through the referral links between websites. Under this framework, we developed 2 prediction models, the reference rating prediction method (RRPM) and the reference-based K-nearest neighbor.ResultsWe found that direct (typing URL), search, and referral are the 3 major traffic sources, representing more than 95% traffic to both LOPs and IOPs. It is alarming to see that direct represents the second-highest traffic source (34.32%) to IOPs. When tested on a data set with 763 online pharmacies, both RRPM and R2NN performed well, achieving an accuracy above 95% in their predictions of the status for the online pharmacies. R2NN outperformed RRPM in full performance metrics (accuracy, kappa, specificity, and sensitivity). On implementing the 2 models on Google search results for popular drugs (Xanax [alprazolam], OxyContin, and opioids), they produced an error rate of only 7.96% (R2NN) and 6.20% (RRPM).ConclusionsOur prediction models use what we know (referral links) to tackle the many unknown aspects of IOPs. They have many potential applications for patients, search engines, social media, payment companies, policy makers or government agencies, and drug manufacturers to help fight IOPs. With scarce work in this area, we hope to help address the current opioid crisis from this perspective and inspire future research in the critical area of drug safety.

Project description:Heart failure is the most common cause of death in both males and females around the world. Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), in particular, are the main cause of death worldwide, accounting for 30% of all fatalities in the United States and 45% in Europe. Artificial intelligence (AI) approaches such as machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) models are playing an important role in the advancement of heart failure therapy. The main objective of this study was to perform a network meta-analysis of patients with heart failure, stroke, hypertension, and diabetes by comparing the ML and DL models. A comprehensive search of five electronic databases was performed using ScienceDirect, EMBASE, PubMed, Web of Science, and IEEE Xplore. The search strategy was performed according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) statement. The methodological quality of studies was assessed by following the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies 2 (QUADAS-2) guidelines. The random-effects network meta-analysis forest plot with categorical data was used, as were subgroups testing for all four types of treatments and calculating odds ratio (OR) with a 95% confidence interval (CI). Pooled network forest, funnel plots, and the league table, which show the best algorithms for each outcome, were analyzed. Seventeen studies, with a total of 285,213 patients with CVDs, were included in the network meta-analysis. The statistical evidence indicated that the DL algorithms performed well in the prediction of heart failure with AUC of 0.843 and CI [0.840-0.845], while in the ML algorithm, the gradient boosting machine (GBM) achieved an average accuracy of 91.10% in predicting heart failure. An artificial neural network (ANN) performed well in the prediction of diabetes with an OR and CI of 0.0905 [0.0489; 0.1673]. Support vector machine (SVM) performed better for the prediction of stroke with OR and CI of 25.0801 [11.4824; 54.7803]. Random forest (RF) results performed well in the prediction of hypertension with OR and CI of 10.8527 [4.7434; 24.8305]. The findings of this work suggest that the DL models can effectively advance the prediction of and knowledge about heart failure, but there is a lack of literature regarding DL methods in the field of CVDs. As a result, more DL models should be applied in this field. To confirm our findings, more meta-analysis (e.g., Bayesian network) and thorough research with a larger number of patients are encouraged.

Project description:BackgroundClinical risk prediction models (CRPMs) use patient characteristics to estimate the probability of having or developing a particular disease and/or outcome. While CRPMs are gaining in popularity, they have yet to be widely adopted in clinical practice. The lack of explainability and interpretability has limited their utility. Explainability is the extent of which a model's prediction process can be described. Interpretability is the degree to which a user can understand the predictions made by a model.MethodsThe study aimed to demonstrate utility of patient similarity analytics in developing an explainable and interpretable CRPM. Data was extracted from the electronic medical records of patients with type-2 diabetes mellitus, hypertension and dyslipidaemia in a Singapore public primary care clinic. We used modified K-nearest neighbour which incorporated expert input, to develop a patient similarity model on this real-world training dataset (n = 7,041) and validated it on a testing dataset (n = 3,018). The results were compared using logistic regression, random forest (RF) and support vector machine (SVM) models from the same dataset. The patient similarity model was then implemented in a prototype system to demonstrate the identification, explainability and interpretability of similar patients and the prediction process.ResultsThe patient similarity model (AUROC = 0.718) was comparable to the logistic regression (AUROC = 0.695), RF (AUROC = 0.764) and SVM models (AUROC = 0.766). We packaged the patient similarity model in a prototype web application. A proof of concept demonstrated how the application provided both quantitative and qualitative information, in the form of patient narratives. This information was used to better inform and influence clinical decision-making, such as getting a patient to agree to start insulin therapy.ConclusionsPatient similarity analytics is a feasible approach to develop an explainable and interpretable CRPM. While the approach is generalizable, it can be used to develop locally relevant information, based on the database it searches. Ultimately, such an approach can generate a more informative CRPMs which can be deployed as part of clinical decision support tools to better facilitate shared decision-making in clinical practice.

Project description:BackgroundAcute kidney injury (AKI) is a common complication after surgery that is associated with increased morbidity and mortality. The majority of existing perioperative AKI risk prediction models are limited in their generalizability and do not fully utilize intraoperative physiological time-series data. Thus, there is a need for intelligent, accurate, and robust systems to leverage new information as it becomes available to predict the risk of developing postoperative AKI.MethodsA retrospective single-center cohort of 2,911 adults who underwent surgery at the University of Florida Health between 2000 and 2010 was utilized for this study. Machine learning and statistical analysis techniques were used to develop perioperative models to predict the risk of developing AKI during the first three days after surgery, first seven days after surgery, and overall (after surgery during the index hospitalization). The improvement in risk prediction was examined by incorporating intraoperative physiological time-series variables. Our proposed model enriched a preoperative model that produced a probabilistic AKI risk score by integrating intraoperative statistical features through a machine learning stacking approach inside a random forest classifier. Model performance was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), accuracy, and Net Reclassification Improvement (NRI).ResultsThe predictive performance of the proposed model is better than the preoperative data only model. The proposed model had an AUC of 0.86 (accuracy of 0.78) for the seven-day AKI outcome, while the preoperative model had an AUC of 0.84 (accuracy of 0.76). Furthermore, by integrating intraoperative features, the algorithm was able to reclassify 40% of the false negative patients from the preoperative model. The NRI for each outcome was AKI at three days (8%), seven days (7%), and overall (4%).ConclusionsPostoperative AKI prediction was improved with high sensitivity and specificity through a machine learning approach that dynamically incorporated intraoperative data.

Dataset Information

Clinical Prediction Models for Cardiovascular Disease: Tufts Predictive Analytics and Comparative Effectiveness Clinical Prediction Model Database.

Publications

Clinical Prediction Models for Cardiovascular Disease: Tufts Predictive Analytics and Comparative Effectiveness Clinical Prediction Model Database.

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