Forecasting and Analyzing the Disease Burden of Aged Population in China, Based on the 2010 Global Burden of Disease Study.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Bao C
PROVIDER: S-EPMC4515648 | biostudies-literature | 2015 Jun
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Forecasting and Analyzing the Disease Burden of Aged Population in China, Based on the 2010 Global Burden of Disease Study.
Bao Chengzhen C Mayila Mamat M Ye Zhenhua Z Wang Jianbing J Jin Mingjuan M He Wenjiong W Chen Kun K
International journal of environmental research and public health 20150625 7
<h4>Background</h4>Forecasting the disease burden of the elderly will contribute to make a comprehensive assessment about physical and mental status of the elderly in China and provide a basis for reducing the negative consequences of aging society to a minimum.<h4>Methods</h4>This study collected data from a public database online provided by Global Burden of Disease Study 2010. Grey model GM (1, 1) was used to forecast all-cause and disease-specific rates of disability adjusted life years (DAL ...[more]
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Project description:Vitamin A deficiency (VAD) is considered as one of the most serious public health concerns in developing countriesand the leading cause of mortality in under-five-year-old children.A large number of young children and pregnant women especially in low-income, non-industrialized communities are more susceptible to VAD. This study aims to report the burden of disease (BOD) attributable to VAD in Iranian population aged less than 5 years by using data of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study 2010.The GBD 2010 study calculated the proportion of deaths, years of life lost (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) attributable to VAD by using the comparative risk assessment (CRA). VAD defined as low serum retinol concentrations (plasma retinol concentration < 0.70 umole/L) among children aged less than five. The VAD outcomes consisted of mortality due to diarrhea, measles, malaria, neglected infectious diseases, morbidity due to malaria (children < 5 years), low birth weight and other perinatal conditions. Uncertainty in the estimates is presented as 95% uncertainty interval (UI).In 1990, there were 371 (95% UI: 166,665) DALYs due to VAD per 100,000 under five-year-old Iranian children in both sexes. The DALYs rate had a downward trend throughout the following years and reached to 76 (95% UI: 33-139)in 2010.The DALYs in children aged under 5 years was 378 (95% UI: 153-747) years for boys and 363 (95% UI: 148-692) years for girls in 1990 which fell to 79 (95% UI: 32-149) and 73 (95% UI: 29-138) in boys and girls in 2010, respectively. The rates of YLDs attributable to VAD changed in both sexes from 87(95% UI: 34-162) in 1990 to 46 (95% UI: 17-69) in 2010. The highest rate of YLDs attributed to VAD was observed in children aged 1-4. On the other hand, the YLLs were mostly in the 0-1-year-oldchildren in all years except 2010.It was found that DALYs attributable to VAD in 1990, followed by a considerable reduction rate after a period of two decades, in 2010. Additional studies on the burden of diseases particularly at sub-national level with more accurate data are recommended.
| S-EPMC5550944 | biostudies-other
Project description:BackgroundChina has undergone rapid demographic and epidemiological changes in the past few decades, including striking declines in fertility and child mortality and increases in life expectancy at birth. Popular discontent with the health system has led to major reforms. To help inform these reforms, we did a comprehensive assessment of disease burden in China, how it changed between 1990 and 2010, and how China's health burden compares with other nations.MethodsWe used results of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2010 (GBD 2010) for 1990 and 2010 for China and 18 other countries in the G20 to assess rates and trends in mortality, causes of death, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE). We present results for 231 diseases and injuries and for 67 risk factors or clusters of risk factors relevant to China. We assessed relative performance of China against G20 countries (significantly better, worse, or indistinguishable from the G20 mean) with age-standardised rates and 95% uncertainty intervals.FindingsThe leading causes of death in China in 2010 were stroke (1·7 million deaths, 95% UI 1·5-1·8 million), ischaemic heart disease (948,700 deaths, 774,500-1,024,600), and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (934,000 deaths, 846,600-1,032,300). Age-standardised YLLs in China were lower in 2010 than all emerging economies in the G20, and only slightly higher than noted in the USA. China had the lowest age-standardised YLD rate in the G20 in 2010. China also ranked tenth (95% UI eighth to tenth) for HALE and 12th (11th to 13th) for life expectancy. YLLs from neonatal causes, infectious diseases, and injuries in children declined substantially between 1990 and 2010. Mental and behavioural disorders, substance use disorders, and musculoskeletal disorders were responsible for almost half of all YLDs. The fraction of DALYs from YLDs rose from 28·1% (95% UI 24·2-32·5) in 1990 to 39·4% (34·9-43·8) in 2010. Leading causes of DALYs in 2010 were cardiovascular diseases (stroke and ischaemic heart disease), cancers (lung and liver cancer), low back pain, and depression. Dietary risk factors, high blood pressure, and tobacco exposure are the risk factors that constituted the largest number of attributable DALYs in China. Ambient air pollution ranked fourth (third to fifth; the second highest in the G20) and household air pollution ranked fifth (fourth to sixth; the third highest in the G20) in terms of the age-standardised DALY rate in 2010.InterpretationThe rapid rise of non-communicable diseases driven by urbanisation, rising incomes, and ageing poses major challenges for China's health system, as does a shift to chronic disability. Reduction of population exposures from poor diet, high blood pressure, tobacco use, cholesterol, and fasting blood glucose are public policy priorities for China, as are the control of ambient and household air pollution. These changes will require an integrated government response to improve primary care and undertake required multisectoral action to tackle key risks. Analyses of disease burden provide a useful framework to guide policy responses to the changing disease spectrum in China.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Project description:BackgroundIschemic heart disease (IHD) burden consists of years of life lost from IHD deaths and years of disability lived with 3 nonfatal IHD sequelae: nonfatal acute myocardial infarction, angina pectoris, and ischemic heart failure. Our aim was to estimate the global and regional burden of IHD in 1990 and 2010.Methods and resultsGlobal and regional estimates of acute myocardial infarction incidence and angina and heart failure prevalence by age, sex, and world region in 1990 and 2010 were estimated based on data from a systematic review and nonlinear mixed-effects meta-regression methods. Age-standardized acute myocardial infarction incidence and angina prevalence decreased globally between 1990 and 2010; ischemic heart failure prevalence increased slightly. The global burden of IHD increased by 29 million disability-adjusted life-years (29% increase) between 1990 and 2010. About 32.4% of the growth in global IHD disability-adjusted life-years between 1990 and 2010 was attributable to aging of the world population, 22.1% was attributable to population growth, and total disability-adjusted life-years were attenuated by a 25.3% decrease in per capita IHD burden (decreased rate). The number of people living with nonfatal IHD increased more than the number of IHD deaths since 1990, but >90% of IHD disability-adjusted life-years in 2010 were attributable to IHD deaths.ConclusionsGlobally, age-standardized acute myocardial infarction incidence and angina prevalence have decreased, and ischemic heart failure prevalence has increased since 1990. Despite decreased age-standardized fatal and nonfatal IHD in most regions since 1990, population growth and aging led to a higher global burden of IHD in 2010.
| S-EPMC4181601 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Nontyphoidal Salmonella is a major cause of bloodstream infections worldwide, and HIV-infected persons and malaria-infected children are at increased risk for the disease. We conducted a systematic literature review to obtain age group-specific, population-based invasive nontyphoidal Salmonella (iNTS) incidence data. Data were categorized by HIV and malaria prevalence and then extrapolated by using 2010 population data. The case-fatality ratio (CFR) was determined by expert opinion consensus. We estimated that 3.4 (range 2.1-6.5) million cases of iNTS disease occur annually (overall incidence 49 cases [range 30-94] per 100,000 population). Africa, where infants, young children, and young adults are most affected, has the highest incidence (227 cases [range 152-341] per 100,000 population) and number of cases (1.9 [range 1.3-2.9] million cases). An iNTS CFR of 20% yielded 681,316 (range 415,164-1,301,520) deaths annually. iNTS disease is a major cause of illness and death globally, particularly in Africa. Improved understanding of the epidemiology of iNTS is needed.
| S-EPMC4451910 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Animal source foods (ASF) such as dairy, eggs, fish and meat are an important source of high-quality nutrients. Lack of ASF in diets can result in developmental disorders including stunting, anemia, poor cognitive and motor development. ASF are more effective in preventing stunting than other foods and promoting ASF consumption in low- and middle-income countries could help improve health, particularly among pregnant women and young children. Production and consumption of ASF are, however, also associated with potential food safety risks. Strengthening of food control systems, informed by quantitative assessments of the disease burden associated with ASF is necessary to meet global nutrition goals. We present the human disease burden associated with 13 pathogens (bacteria and parasites) in ASF, based on an analysis of global burden of foodborne disease (FBD) estimates of the WHO Foodborne Disease Burden Epidemiology Reference Group (FERG). The FBD burden of these pathogens was combined with estimates of the proportion of disease transmitted by eight main groups of ASF. Uncertainty in all estimates was accounted for by Monte Carlo simulation. In 2010, the global burden of ASF was 168 (95% uncertainty interval (UI 137-219) Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) per 100,000 population, which is approximately 35% of the estimated total burden of FBD. Main pathogens contributing to this burden included non-typhoidal Salmonella enterica, Taenia solium, and Campylobacter spp. The proportion of FBD burden associated with ASF varied considerably between subregions and between countries within subregions. Likewise, the contribution of different pathogens and ASF groups varied strongly between subregions. Pathogens with a localized distribution included T. solium and fishborne trematodes. Pathogens with a global distribution included non-typhoidal S. enterica, Campylobacter spp., Toxoplasma gondii, and Mycobacterium bovis. Control methods exist for many hazards associated with ASF, and their implementation is linked to economic development and effective food safety systems.
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| S-EPMC4824529 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The global burden of atrial fibrillation (AF) is unknown.We systematically reviewed population-based studies of AF published from 1980 to 2010 from the 21 Global Burden of Disease regions to estimate global/regional prevalence, incidence, and morbidity and mortality related to AF (DisModMR software). Of 377 potential studies identified, 184 met prespecified eligibility criteria. The estimated number of individuals with AF globally in 2010 was 33.5 million (20.9 million men [95% uncertainty interval (UI), 19.5-22.2 million] and 12.6 million women [95% UI, 12.0-13.7 million]). Burden associated with AF, measured as disability-adjusted life-years, increased by 18.8% (95% UI, 15.8-19.3) in men and 18.9% (95% UI, 15.8-23.5) in women from 1990 to 2010. In 1990, the estimated age-adjusted prevalence rates of AF (per 100 000 population) were 569.5 in men (95% UI, 532.8-612.7) and 359.9 in women (95% UI, 334.7-392.6); the estimated age-adjusted incidence rates were 60.7 per 100 000 person-years in men (95% UI, 49.2-78.5) and 43.8 in women (95% UI, 35.9-55.0). In 2010, the prevalence rates increased to 596.2 (95% UI, 558.4-636.7) in men and 373.1 (95% UI, 347.9-402.2) in women; the incidence rates increased to 77.5 (95% UI, 65.2-95.4) in men and 59.5 (95% UI, 49.9-74.9) in women. Mortality associated with AF was higher in women and increased by 2-fold (95% UI, 2.0-2.2) and 1.9-fold (95% UI, 1.8-2.0) in men and women, respectively, from 1990 to 2010. There was evidence of significant regional heterogeneity in AF estimations and availability of population-based data.These findings provide evidence of progressive increases in overall burden, incidence, prevalence, and AF-associated mortality between 1990 and 2010, with significant public health implications. Systematic, regional surveillance of AF is required to better direct prevention and treatment strategies.
| S-EPMC4151302 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundFalls in older people have become a major public health concern worldwide, but a comprehensive assessment of the burden of falls for older people in mainland China has not been done. We aimed to investigate the burden of falls among older people at the national and subnational level in mainland China, and explore the trends from 1990 to 2019, using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019.MethodUsing data from GBD 2019, we estimated the burden of falls among people aged 60 years and older by sex and age group in terms of incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) rates and assessed these indicators at the subnational level in 31 geographical units (hereafter called provinces). We investigated the overall trend in the burden of falls across these 31 provinces from 1990 to 2019, and assessed the change in the burden of falls by sex, age group (60-64, 65-69, 70-74, 75-79, and ≥80 years), and province between 1990 and 2019.FindingsIn 2019, in mainland China, the incidence rate of falls among people aged 60 years and older was 3799·4 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3062·4-4645·0) new falls per 100 000 population, and 39·2 deaths (21·8-48·8) per 100 000 population and 1238·9 DALYs (920·5-1553·2) per 100 000 population were due to falls. We found no significant difference in the burden of falls between males and females. The incidence, mortality, and DALY rates of falls for people aged 80 years and older were significantly higher than those in the other age groups, except for incidence rate, which was non-significantly different between the age 75-79 years group and the oldest age group. Large variations in the incidence and DALY rates of falls were observed across 31 provinces. Although between 1990 and 2019 we found no significant changes in overall mortality due to falls in all provinces and in DALY rates for 23 provinces (DALY rates significantly decreased in two provinces and increased in six provinces), we found large increases in the incidence rate of falls in both males (percentage change between 1990 and 2019: 82·9% [67·4-100]) and females (77·0% [63·3-91·8]). The percentage change in incidence rate of falls between 1990 and 2019 varied from 50·0% (42·2-59·5) for people aged 60-64 years to 123·8% (105·4-141·9) for people aged 80 years and older. All provinces had significant increases in the incidence rate of falls between 1990 and 2019, with Sichuan having the greatest increase (148·5% [125·5-171·4]) and Jilin the smallest increase (14·7% [3·6-26·1]).InterpretationBetween 1990 and 2019, the incidence rate of falls increased substantially in older adults across mainland China, whereas the rates of mortality and DALY of falls among older people remained relatively stable, suggesting improvements in outcomes of falls. Nevertheless, falls remain an ongoing health burden for older people in mainland China, and there is an urgent need to introduce system-wide, integrated, and cost-effective measures to protect and support older people to minimise their risks and combat an increasing absolute burden as the population continues ageing.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
| S-EPMC8646839 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundIschemic heart disease (IHD) is the leading cause of death worldwide. The Global Burden of Diseases, Risk Factors and Injuries 2010 Study estimated global and regional IHD mortality from 1980 to 2010.Methods and resultsSources for IHD mortality estimates were country-level surveillance, verbal autopsy, and vital registration data. Regional income, metabolic and nutritional risk factors, and other covariates were estimated from surveys and a systematic review. An estimation and validation process led to an ensemble model of IHD mortality for 21 world regions. Globally, age-standardized IHD mortality has declined since the 1980s, and high-income regions (especially Australasia, Western Europe, and North America) experienced the most remarkable declines. Age-standardized IHD mortality increased in former Soviet Union countries and South Asia in the 1990s and attenuated after 2000. In 2010, Eastern Europe and Central Asia had the highest age-standardized IHD mortality rates. More IHD deaths occurred in South Asia in 2010 than in any other region. On average, IHD deaths in South Asia, North Africa and the Middle East, and sub-Saharan Africa occurred at younger ages in comparison with most other regions.ConclusionsIn most world regions, particularly in high-income regions, age-standardized IHD mortality rates have declined significantly since 1980. High age-standardized IHD mortality in Eastern Europe, Central Asia, and South Asia point to the need to prevent and control established risk factors in those regions and to research the unique behavioral and environmental determinants of higher IHD mortality.
| S-EPMC4181359 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundNeck pain has become very common in China and has greatly affected individuals, families, and society in general. In this study, we aimed to report on the rates and trends of the prevalence, incidence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) caused by neck pain in the general population of China from 1990 to 2019.MethodsWe used data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 (GBD 2019) study to estimate the number and age standardised rates per 100 000 population of neck pain point prevalence, annual incidence, and YLDs in 33 provinces/municipalities/autonomous regions of China, stratified by age, sex, and sociodemographic index (SDI) from 1990 to 2019. We then compared these estimates with other G20 countries.ResultsThere were 6.80 × 107 patients with neck pain in 2019, presenting an increase from 3.79 × 107 in 1990. Likewise, the national age-standardised point prevalence increased slightly from 3.53% in 1990 to 3.57% in 2019. The YLDs increased by 78.08%, from 3814 × 103 in 1990 to 6792 × 103 in 2019. The age-standardised YLDs rate increased 1.50% from 352.84 in 1990 to 358.10 in 2019. The point prevalence of neck pain in 2019 was higher in females compared with males. These estimates were all above the global average level and increased more rapidly among G20 countries from 1990 to 2019. We generally observed a positive association between age-standardised YLD rates for neck pain and SDI, suggesting the burden is higher at higher sociodemographic indices.ConclusionsNeck pain is a serious public health problem in the general population in China, especially in its central and western regions, with an overall increasing trend in the last three decades. This is possibly related to changes of people's lifestyles and work patterns due to improvements in societal well-being and technology. Raising awareness of risk factors for neck pain in the general population and establishing effective preventive and treatment strategies could help reduce the future burden of neck disorders.
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