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Using published data in Mendelian randomization: a blueprint for efficient identification of causal risk factors.

ABSTRACT: Finding individual-level data for adequately-powered Mendelian randomization analyses may be problematic. As publicly-available summarized data on genetic associations with disease outcomes from large consortia are becoming more abundant, use of published data is an attractive analysis strategy for obtaining precise estimates of the causal effects of risk factors on outcomes. We detail the necessary steps for conducting Mendelian randomization investigations using published data, and present novel statistical methods for combining data on the associations of multiple (correlated or uncorrelated) genetic variants with the risk factor and outcome into a single causal effect estimate. A two-sample analysis strategy may be employed, in which evidence on the gene-risk factor and gene-outcome associations are taken from different data sources. These approaches allow the efficient identification of risk factors that are suitable targets for clinical intervention from published data, although the ability to assess the assumptions necessary for causal inference is diminished. Methods and guidance are illustrated using the example of the causal effect of serum calcium levels on fasting glucose concentrations. The estimated causal effect of a 1 standard deviation (0.13 mmol/L) increase in calcium levels on fasting glucose (mM) using a single lead variant from the CASR gene region is 0.044 (95 % credible interval -0.002, 0.100). In contrast, using our method to account for the correlation between variants, the corresponding estimate using 17 genetic variants is 0.022 (95 % credible interval 0.009, 0.035), a more clearly positive causal effect.

SUBMITTER: Burgess S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4516908 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundThe pathogenesis of pancreatitis involves diverse environmental risk factors, some of which have not yet been clearly elucidated. This study systematically investigated the causal effects of genetically predicted modifiable risk factors on pancreatitis using the Mendelian randomization (MR) approach.MethodsGenetic variants associated with 30 exposure factors were obtained from genome-wide association studies. Summary-level statistical data for acute pancreatitis (AP), chronic pancreatitis (CP), alcohol-induced AP (AAP) and alcohol-induced CP (ACP) were obtained from FinnGen consortia. Univariable and multivariable MR analyses were performed to identify causal risk factors for pancreatitis.ResultsGenetic predisposition to smoking (OR = 1.314, P = 0.021), cholelithiasis (OR = 1.365, P = 1.307E-19) and inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) (OR = 1.063, P = 0.008) as well as higher triglycerides (OR = 1.189, P = 0.016), body mass index (BMI) (OR = 1.335, P = 3.077E-04), whole body fat mass (OR = 1.291, P = 0.004) and waist circumference (OR = 1.466, P = 0.011) were associated with increased risk of AP. The effect of obesity traits on AP was attenuated after correcting for cholelithiasis. Genetically-driven smoking (OR = 1.595, P = 0.005), alcohol consumption (OR = 3.142, P = 0.020), cholelithiasis (OR = 1.180, P = 0.001), autoimmune diseases (OR = 1.123, P = 0.008), IBD (OR = 1.066, P = 0.042), type 2 diabetes (OR = 1.121, P = 0.029), and higher serum calcium (OR = 1.933, P = 0.018), triglycerides (OR = 1.222, P = 0.021) and waist-to-hip ratio (OR = 1.632, P = 0.023) increased the risk of CP. Cholelithiasis, triglycerides and the waist-to-hip ratio remained significant predictors in the multivariable MR. Genetically predicted alcohol drinking was associated with increased risk of AAP (OR = 15.045, P = 0.001) and ACP (OR = 6.042, P = 0.014). After adjustment of alcohol drinking, genetic liability to IBD had a similar significant causal effect on AAP (OR = 1.137, P = 0.049), while testosterone (OR = 0.270, P = 0.002) a triglyceride (OR = 1.610, P = 0.001) and hip circumference (OR = 0.648, P = 0.040) were significantly associated with ACP. Genetically predicted higher education and household income levels could lower the risk of pancreatitis.ConclusionsThis MR study provides evidence of complex causal associations between modifiable risk factors and pancreatitis. These findings provide new insights into potential therapeutic and prevention strategies.

Project description:The question of whether variable risk factors and various nutrients are causally related to inflammatory bowel diseases (IBDs) has remained unanswered so far. Thus, this study investigated whether genetically predicted risk factors and nutrients play a function in the occurrence of inflammatory bowel diseases, including ulcerative colitis (UC), non-infective colitis (NIC), and Crohn's disease (CD), using Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis. Utilizing the data of genome-wide association studies (GWASs) with 37 exposure factors, we ran Mendelian randomization analyses based on up to 458,109 participants. Univariable and multivariable MR analyses were conducted to determine causal risk factors for IBD diseases. Genetic predisposition to smoking and appendectomy as well as vegetable and fruit intake, breastfeeding, n-3 PUFAs, n-6 PUFAs, vitamin D, total cholesterol, whole-body fat mass, and physical activity were related to the risk of UC (p < 0.05). The effect of lifestyle behaviors on UC was attenuated after correcting for appendectomy. Genetically driven smoking, alcohol consumption, appendectomy, tonsillectomy, blood calcium, tea intake, autoimmune diseases, type 2 diabetes, cesarean delivery, vitamin D deficiency, and antibiotic exposure increased the risk of CD (p < 0.05), while vegetable and fruit intake, breastfeeding, physical activity, blood zinc, and n-3 PUFAs decreased the risk of CD (p < 0.05). Appendectomy, antibiotics, physical activity, blood zinc, n-3 PUFAs, and vegetable fruit intake remained significant predictors in multivariable MR (p < 0.05). Besides smoking, breastfeeding, alcoholic drinks, vegetable and fruit intake, vitamin D, appendectomy, and n-3 PUFAs were associated with NIC (p < 0.05). Smoking, alcoholic drinks, vegetable and fruit intake, vitamin D, appendectomy, and n-3 PUFAs remained significant predictors in multivariable MR (p < 0.05). Our results provide new and comprehensive evidence demonstrating that there are approving causal effects of various risk factors on IBDs. These findings also supply some suggestions for the treatment and prevention of these diseases.

Project description:BACKGROUND: Vitamin D deficiency is associated with increased cardiovascular disease risk in observational studies. Whether these associations are causal is not clear. Loss-of-function mutations in the filaggrin gene result in up to 10% higher serum vitamin D concentrations, supposedly due to a decreased UV-protection of the keratinocytes. We used a Mendelian randomization approach to estimate the causal effect of vitamin D status on serum lipids, blood pressure, body mass index, waist circumference, and the metabolic syndrome. METHODS: Three population based studies were included, Monica10 (2,656 individuals aged 40-71 years), Inter99 (6,784 individuals aged 30-60 years), and Health2006 (3,471 individuals aged 18-69 years) conducted in 1993-94, 1999-2001, and 2006-2008, respectively. Participants were genotyped for the two most common filaggrin gene mutations in European descendants R501X and 2282del4, in all three studies and further for the R2447X mutation in the Inter99 and Health2006 studies. Filaggrin genotype was used as instrumental variable for vitamin D status. Baseline measurements of serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D were performed in all three studies. RESULTS: Instrumental variable analyses showed a 23.8% (95% confidence interval, CI 3.0, 48.6) higher HDL cholesterol level and a 30.5% (95% CI: 0.8, 51.3) lower serum level of triglycerides per doubling of vitamin D. These associations were, however, not statistically significant when applying the Bonferroni adjusted significance level. The remaining lipids showed non-significant changes in a favorable direction. Doubling of vitamin D gave a non-significantly lower odds ratio = 0.26 (95% CI: 0.06, 1.17) of the metabolic syndrome. There were no statistically significant causal effects of vitamin D status on blood pressure, body mass index, or waist circumference. CONCLUSION: Our results support a causal effect of higher vitamin D status on a more favorable lipid profile, although more studies in other populations are needed to confirm our results.

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Using published data in Mendelian randomization: a blueprint for efficient identification of causal risk factors.

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