Dataset Information

Climatic controls on ecosystem resilience: Postfire regeneration in the Cape Floristic Region of South Africa.

ABSTRACT: Conservation of biodiversity and natural resources in a changing climate requires understanding what controls ecosystem resilience to disturbance. This understanding is especially important in the fire-prone Mediterranean systems of the world. The fire frequency in these systems is sensitive to climate, and recent climate change has resulted in more frequent fires over the last few decades. However, the sensitivity of postfire recovery and biomass/fuel load accumulation to climate is less well understood than fire frequency despite its importance in driving the fire regime. In this study, we develop a hierarchical statistical framework to model postfire ecosystem recovery using satellite-derived observations of vegetation as a function of stand age, topography, and climate. In the Cape Floristic Region (CFR) of South Africa, a fire-prone biodiversity hotspot, we found strong postfire recovery gradients associated with climate resulting in faster recovery in regions with higher soil fertility, minimum July (winter) temperature, and mean January (summer) precipitation. Projections using an ensemble of 11 downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) general circulation models (GCMs) suggest that warmer winter temperatures in 2080-2100 will encourage faster postfire recovery across the region, which could further increase fire frequency due to faster fuel accumulation. However, some models project decreasing precipitation in the western CFR, which would slow recovery rates there, likely reducing fire frequency through lack of fuel and potentially driving local biome shifts from fynbos shrubland to nonburning semidesert vegetation. This simple yet powerful approach to making inferences from large, remotely sensed datasets has potential for wide application to modeling ecosystem resilience in disturbance-prone ecosystems globally.

SUBMITTER: Wilson AM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4517208 | biostudies-literature | 2015 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Climatic controls on ecosystem resilience: Postfire regeneration in the Cape Floristic Region of South Africa.

Wilson Adam M AM Latimer Andrew M AM Silander John A JA

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 20150706 29

Conservation of biodiversity and natural resources in a changing climate requires understanding what controls ecosystem resilience to disturbance. This understanding is especially important in the fire-prone Mediterranean systems of the world. The fire frequency in these systems is sensitive to climate, and recent climate change has resulted in more frequent fires over the last few decades. However, the sensitivity of postfire recovery and biomass/fuel load accumulation to climate is less well u ...[more]

PMID: 26150521

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Project description:Aim:The evolutionary forces that gave rise to the exceptional plant species richness of the Cape Floristic Region (CFR) have also likely played a role at the intraspecific level (i.e. plant populations)-and thereby generating shared phylogeographic patterns among taxa. Here we test whether plant populations in the CFR exhibit phylogeographic breaks across the boundaries between Centres of Endemism (CoEs). The boundaries between CoEs (derived from the distribution ranges of endemic taxa and currently mapped at a coarse, Quarter Degree Square scale) represent a spatial proxy for the evolutionary diversifying drivers acting on plant taxa in the CFR. Location:The CFR, located along the southern Cape of South Africa. Methods:Published phylogeographic literature were compiled and spatial patterns of genetic divergence re-analysed to assess the frequency at which CFR plant taxa exhibit phylogeographic breaks either (1) across or (2) within CoE boundaries. Population pairs from each study were compared across and within CoEs and scored as either exhibiting a phylogeographic break or not. Results:Phylogeographic breaks in Cape plants were found to occur across the boundaries of CoEs more often than not. Significantly more population pairs exhibited phylogeographic breaks across CoE boundaries (506 of the 540, ?2 = 886, p < 0.001) and fewer breaks within CoEs (94 of 619, ?2 = 300, p < 0.001) than would be expected if there was equal probability of a genetic break occurring across CoE boundaries. Main conclusions:The evolutionary forces that have produced and maintained the exceptional plant diversity in the CFR appear to have operated at the population level, producing similar patterns of phylogeographic structuring of plant lineages regardless of life history or taxonomy. This tendency for Cape plants to exhibit shared patterns of spatially structured genetic diversity that match the distribution of endemic taxa may assist CFR phylogeographers to streamline sampling efforts and test novel hypotheses pertaining to the distribution of genetic diversity among CFR plant taxa. Additionally, the resolution at which CoEs are mapped should be refined, which may provide a valuable tool for future conservation planning and the development of precautionary guidelines for the translocation of genetic material during species reintroductions and commercial cultivation of Cape endemic crops. Thus, to answer the question 'Do Centres of Endemism provide a spatial context for predicting and preserving plant phylogeographic patterns in the Cape Floristic Region, South Africa?'-yes, CoEs do appear to be an important tool for Cape phylogeographers. However, the data is limited and more plant phylogeography work is needed in the CFR.

Dataset Information

Climatic controls on ecosystem resilience: Postfire regeneration in the Cape Floristic Region of South Africa.

Publications

Climatic controls on ecosystem resilience: Postfire regeneration in the Cape Floristic Region of South Africa.

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