Dataset Information

Communicating the uncertainty in estimated greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture.

ABSTRACT: In an effort to mitigate anthropogenic effects on the global climate system, industrialised countries are required to quantify and report, for various economic sectors, the annual emissions of greenhouse gases from their several sources and the absorption of the same in different sinks. These estimates are uncertain, and this uncertainty must be communicated effectively, if government bodies, research scientists or members of the public are to draw sound conclusions. Our interest is in communicating the uncertainty in estimates of greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture to those who might directly use the results from the inventory. We tested six methods of communication. These were: a verbal scale using the IPCC calibrated phrases such as 'likely' and 'very unlikely'; probabilities that emissions are within a defined range of values; confidence intervals for the expected value; histograms; box plots; and shaded arrays that depict the probability density of the uncertain quantity. In a formal trial we used these methods to communicate uncertainty about four specific inferences about greenhouse gas emissions in the UK. Sixty four individuals who use results from the greenhouse gas inventory professionally participated in the trial, and we tested how effectively the uncertainty about these inferences was communicated by means of a questionnaire. Our results showed differences in the efficacy of the methods of communication, and interactions with the nature of the target audience. We found that, although the verbal scale was thought to be a good method of communication it did not convey enough information and was open to misinterpretation. Shaded arrays were similarly criticised for being open to misinterpretation, but proved to give the best impression of uncertainty when participants were asked to interpret results from the greenhouse gas inventory. Box plots were most favoured by our participants largely because they were particularly favoured by those who worked in research or had a stronger mathematical background. We propose a combination of methods should be used to convey uncertainty in emissions and that this combination should be tailored to the professional group.

SUBMITTER: Milne AE

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4521119 | biostudies-literature | 2015 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Communicating the uncertainty in estimated greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture.

Milne Alice E AE Glendining Margaret J MJ Lark R Murray RM Perryman Sarah A M SA Gordon Taylor T Whitmore Andrew P AP

Journal of environmental management 20150716

In an effort to mitigate anthropogenic effects on the global climate system, industrialised countries are required to quantify and report, for various economic sectors, the annual emissions of greenhouse gases from their several sources and the absorption of the same in different sinks. These estimates are uncertain, and this uncertainty must be communicated effectively, if government bodies, research scientists or members of the public are to draw sound conclusions. Our interest is in communica ...[more]

PMID: 26188698

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Project description:BackgroundFood production accounts for 30% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Less environmentally sustainable diets are also often more processed, energy-dense and nutrient-poor. To date, the environmental impact of diets have mostly been based on a limited number of broad food groups.ObjectivesWe link GHG emissions to over 3000 foods, assessing associations between individuals' GHG emissions, their nutrient requirements and their demographic characteristics. We also identify additional information required in dietary assessment to generate more accurate environmental impact data for individual-level diets.MethodsGHG emissions of individual foods, including process stages prior to retail, were added to the UK Composition Of Foods Integrated Dataset (COFID) composition tables and linked to automated online dietary assessment for 212 adults over three 24-hour periods. Variations in GHG emissions were explored by dietary pattern, demographic characteristics and World Health Organization Recommended Nutrient Intakes (RNIs).ResultsGHG emissions estimates were linked to 98% (n = 3233) of food items. Meat explained 32% of diet-related GHG emissions; 15% from drinks; 14% from dairy; and 8% from cakes, biscuits and confectionery. Non-vegetarian diets had GHG emissions 59% (95% CI 18%, 115%) higher than vegetarian. Men had 41% (20%, 64%) higher GHG emissions than women. Individuals meeting RNIs for saturated fats, carbohydrates and sodium had lower GHG emissions compared to those exceeding the RNI.DiscussionPolicies encouraging sustainable diets should focus on plant-based diets. Substituting tea, coffee and alcohol with more sustainable alternatives, whilst reducing less nutritious sweet snacks, presents further opportunities. Healthier diets had lower GHG emissions, demonstrating consistency between planetary and personal health. Further detail could be gained from incorporating brand, production methods, post-retail emissions, country of origin, and additional environmental impact indicators.

Project description:Background and aimColonoscopy is the gold-standard screening test for colorectal cancer. However, it has come under scrutiny for its carbon footprint and contribution to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions compared to other medical procedures. Notwithstanding, screening colonoscopies may have a positive effect on GHG emissions that is unknown. This study estimated the carbon emissions prevented by screening colonoscopies in the U.S.MethodsUsing the reported number of screening colonoscopies performed annually in the U.S. and the absolute risk reduction (ARR) reported in the NorDICC trial, we calculated the expected minimum number of cancer treatment and surveillance visits prevented through screening based on the cancer stage. The average carbon emission averted per mile traveled was computed using the Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) GHG equivalencies calculator. The final estimate of carbon emissions averted over a decade by screening colonoscopies performed in one year was determined.Result6.3 million screening colonoscopies performed in one year prevent 1,134,000 colorectal cancers over a ten-year period. Of these, 38∙3% (434,254) are localized, 38∙8% (440,281) are regional, and 22∙9% (259,465) are metastatic disease. The minimum number of post-diagnosis visits prevented is 11 for stage I, ≥ 21 for stage II, ≥25 for stage III, and ≥ 20 for stage IV disease, comprised of diagnostic, surgical evaluation, chemotherapy, and surveillance visits. The total number of visits prevented by screening is 2,388,397 for stage I, 5,254,421 for stage II, 13,120,369 for stage III, and 9,210,972 for stage IV disease. Approximately 395 million miles of travel and 158,263 metric tons of CO2, equivalent to 177 million pounds of coal burned, 19 billion smartphones charged, or 18 million gallons of gasoline consumed, were saved over ten years through screening.ConclusionColorectal cancer screening decreases cancer-related GHG emissions and minimizes the environmental impact of cancer treatment.

Dataset Information

Communicating the uncertainty in estimated greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture.

Publications

Communicating the uncertainty in estimated greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture.

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