Dataset Information

Common carotid intima-media thickness measurements do not improve cardiovascular risk prediction in individuals with elevated blood pressure: the USE-IMT collaboration.

ABSTRACT: Carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT) is a marker of cardiovascular risk. It is unclear whether measurement of mean common CIMT improves 10-year risk prediction of first-time myocardial infarction or stroke in individuals with elevated blood pressure. We performed an analysis among individuals with elevated blood pressure (i.e., a systolic blood pressure ?140 mm Hg and a diastolic blood pressure ? 90 mm Hg) in USE-IMT, a large ongoing individual participant data meta-analysis. We refitted the risk factors of the Framingham Risk Score on asymptomatic individuals (baseline model) and expanded this model with mean common CIMT (CIMT model) measurements. From both models, 10-year risks to develop a myocardial infarction or stroke were estimated. In individuals with elevated blood pressure, we compared discrimination and calibration of the 2 models and calculated the net reclassification improvement (NRI). We included 17 254 individuals with elevated blood pressure from 16 studies. During a median follow-up of 9.9 years, 2014 first-time myocardial infarctions or strokes occurred. The C-statistics of the baseline and CIMT models were similar (0.73). NRI with the addition of mean common CIMT was small and not significant (1.4%; 95% confidence intervals, -1.1 to 3.7). In those at intermediate risk (n=5008, 10-year absolute risk of 10% to 20%), the NRI was 5.6% (95% confidence intervals, 1.6-10.4). There is no added value of measurement of mean common CIMT in individuals with elevated blood pressure for improving cardiovascular risk prediction. For those at intermediate risk, the addition of mean common CIMT to an existing cardiovascular risk score is small but statistically significant.

SUBMITTER: Bots ML

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4523133 | biostudies-literature | 2014 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Common carotid intima-media thickness measurements do not improve cardiovascular risk prediction in individuals with elevated blood pressure: the USE-IMT collaboration.

Bots Michiel L ML Groenewegen Karlijn A KA Anderson Todd J TJ Britton Annie R AR Dekker Jacqueline M JM Engström Gunnar G Evans Greg W GW de Graaf Jacqueline J Grobbee Diederick E DE Hedblad Bo B Hofman Albert A Holewijn Suzanne S Ikeda Ai A Kavousi Maryam M Kitagawa Kazuo K Kitamura Akihiko A Ikram M Arfan MA Lonn Eva M EM Lorenz Matthias W MW Mathiesen Ellisiv B EB Nijpels Giel G Okazaki Shuhei S O'Leary Daniel H DH Polak Joseph F JF Price Jacqueline F JF Robertson Christine C Rembold Christopher M CM Rosvall Maria M Rundek Tatjana T Salonen Jukka T JT Sitzer Matthias M Stehouwer Coen D A CD Franco Oscar H OH Peters Sanne A E SA den Ruijter Hester M HM

Hypertension (Dallas, Tex. : 1979) 20140310 6

Carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT) is a marker of cardiovascular risk. It is unclear whether measurement of mean common CIMT improves 10-year risk prediction of first-time myocardial infarction or stroke in individuals with elevated blood pressure. We performed an analysis among individuals with elevated blood pressure (i.e., a systolic blood pressure ≥140 mm Hg and a diastolic blood pressure ≥ 90 mm Hg) in USE-IMT, a large ongoing individual participant data meta-analysis. We refitted the ri ...[more]

PMID: 24614213

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Project description:BackgroundIntima-media thickness of the walls of the common carotid artery and internal carotid artery may add to the Framingham risk score for predicting cardiovascular events.MethodsWe measured the mean intima-media thickness of the common carotid artery and the maximum intima-media thickness of the internal carotid artery in 2965 members of the Framingham Offspring Study cohort. Cardiovascular-disease outcomes were evaluated for an average follow-up of 7.2 years. Multivariable Cox proportional-hazards models were generated for intima-media thickness and risk factors. We evaluated the reclassification of cardiovascular disease on the basis of the 8-year Framingham risk score category (low, intermediate, or high) after adding intima-media thickness values.ResultsA total of 296 participants had a cardiovascular event. The risk factors of the Framingham risk score predicted these events, with a C statistic of 0.748 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.719 to 0.776). The adjusted hazard ratio for cardiovascular disease with a 1-SD increase in the mean intima-media thickness of the common carotid artery was 1.13 (95% CI, 1.02 to 1.24), with a nonsignificant change in the C statistic of 0.003 (95% CI, 0.000 to 0.007); the corresponding hazard ratio for the maximum intima-media thickness of the internal carotid artery was 1.21 (95% CI, 1.13 to 1.29), with a modest increase in the C statistic of 0.009 (95% CI, 0.003 to 0.016). The net reclassification index increased significantly after addition of intima-media thickness of the internal carotid artery (7.6%, P<0.001) but not intima-media thickness of the common carotid artery (0.0%, P=0.99). With the presence of plaque, defined as intima-media thickness of the internal carotid artery of more than 1.5 mm, the net reclassification index was 7.3% (P=0.01), with an increase in the C statistic of 0.014 (95% CI, 0.003 to 0.025).ConclusionsThe maximum internal and mean common carotid-artery intima-media thicknesses both predict cardiovascular outcomes, but only the maximum intima-media thickness of (and presence of plaque in) the internal carotid artery significantly (albeit modestly) improves the classification of risk of cardiovascular disease in the Framingham Offspring Study cohort. (Funded by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute.).

Dataset Information

Common carotid intima-media thickness measurements do not improve cardiovascular risk prediction in individuals with elevated blood pressure: the USE-IMT collaboration.

Publications

Common carotid intima-media thickness measurements do not improve cardiovascular risk prediction in individuals with elevated blood pressure: the USE-IMT collaboration.

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