Dataset Information

Nationwide variation in the effects of temperature on infectious gastroenteritis incidence in Japan.

ABSTRACT: Although several studies have investigated the effects of temperature on the incidence of infectious gastrointestinal disease in a single city or region, few have investigated variations in this association using nationwide data. We obtained weekly data, gathered between 2000 and 2012, pertaining to infectious gastroenteritis cases and weather variability in all 47 Japanese prefectures. A two-stage analysis was used to assess the nonlinear and delayed relationship between temperature and morbidity. In the first stage, a Poisson regression allowing for overdispersion in a distributed lag nonlinear model was used to estimate the prefecture-specific effects of temperature on morbidity. In the second stage, a multivariate meta-analysis was applied to pool estimates at the national level. The pooled overall relative risk (RR) was highest in the 59.9(th) percentile of temperature (RR, 1.08; 95% CI: 1.01, 1.15). Meta-analysis results also indicated that the estimated pooled RR at lower temperatures (25(th) percentile) began immediately but did not persist, whereas an identical estimate at a higher temperature (75(th) percentile) was delayed but persisted for several weeks. Our results suggest that public health strategies aimed at controlling temperature-related infectious gastroenteritis may be more effective when tailored according to region-specific weather conditions.

SUBMITTER: Onozuka D

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4530438 | biostudies-literature | 2015 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Nationwide variation in the effects of temperature on infectious gastroenteritis incidence in Japan.

Onozuka Daisuke D Hagihara Akihito A

Scientific reports 20150810

Although several studies have investigated the effects of temperature on the incidence of infectious gastrointestinal disease in a single city or region, few have investigated variations in this association using nationwide data. We obtained weekly data, gathered between 2000 and 2012, pertaining to infectious gastroenteritis cases and weather variability in all 47 Japanese prefectures. A two-stage analysis was used to assess the nonlinear and delayed relationship between temperature and morbidi ...[more]

PMID: 26255569

Similar Datasets

Project description:BackgroundClimate change has marked implications for the burden of infectious diseases. However, no studies have estimated future projections of climate change–related excess morbidity due to diarrhea according to climate change scenarios.ObjectivesWe aimed to examine temperature-infectious gastroenteritis associations throughout Japan and project temperature-related morbidity concomitant with climate change for the 2090s.MethodsWeekly time series of average temperature and morbidity for infectious gastroenteritis cases in the period 2005-2015 were collated from the 47 Japanese prefectures. A two-stage time-series analysis was adopted to estimate temperature-infectious gastroenteritis relationships. Time series of present and future average daily temperature fluctuations were projected for the four climate change scenarios of representative concentration pathways (RCPs) according to five general circulation models. Excess morbidity for high and low temperatures and the net change in the period 1990–2099 were projected for each climate change scenario by assuming the absence of adaptation and population alterations.ResultsIn the period 2005–2015, 11,529,833 infectious gastroenteritis cases were reported. There were net reductions in temperature-induced excess morbidity under higher emission scenarios. The net change in the projection period 2090-2099 in comparison with 2010–2019 was [Formula: see text] (95% empirical confidence interval [eCI]: [Formula: see text], 0.5) for RCP2.6, [Formula: see text] (95% eCI: [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text]) for RCP4.5, [Formula: see text] (95% eCI: [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text]) for RCP6.0, and [Formula: see text] (95% eCI: [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text]) for RCP8.5, and the higher the emissions scenario, the larger the estimates reductions. Spatial heterogeneity in the temperature-morbidity relationship was observed among prefectures (Cochran Q test, [Formula: see text]; [Formula: see text]).ConclusionsJapan may experience a net reduction in temperature-related excess morbidity due to infectious gastroenteritis in higher emission scenarios. These results might be because the majority of temperature-related diarrhea cases in Japan are attributable to viral infections during the winter season. Further projections of specific pathogen-induced infectious gastroenteritis due to climate change are warranted. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP4731.

Project description:Recent reports indicate that respiratory infectious diseases were suppressed during the novel coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. COVID-19 led to behavioral changes aimed to control droplet transmission or contact transmission. In this study, we examined the incidence of common infectious diseases in Japan during the COVID-19 pandemic. COVID-19 data were extracted from the national data based on the National Epidemiological Surveillance of Infectious Diseases (NESID). Common infectious diseases were selected from notifiable infectious diseases under the NESID. The epidemic activity of the diseases during 2015-2020 was evaluated based on the Infectious Disease Weekly Reports published by the National Institute of Infectious Diseases. Each disease was then categorized according to the route of transmission. Many Japanese people had adopted hygienic activities, such as wearing masks and hand washing, even before the COVID-19 pandemic. We examined the correlation between the time-series of disease counts of common infectious diseases and COVID-19 over time using cross-correlation analysis. The weekly number of cases of measles, rotavirus, and several infections transmitted by droplet spread, was negatively correlated with the weekly number of cases of COVID-19 for up to 20 weeks in the past. According to the difference-in-differences analysis, the activity of influenza and rubella was significantly lower starting from the second week in 2020 than that in 2015-2019. Only legionellosis was more frequent throughout the year than in 2015-2019. Lower activity was also observed in some contact transmitted, airborne-transmitted, and fecal-oral transmitted diseases. However, carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae, exanthema subitum, showed the same trend as that over the previous 5 years. In conclusion, our study shows that public health interventions for the COVID-19 pandemic may have effectively prevented the transmission of most droplet-transmitted diseases and those transmitted through other routes.

Project description:BackgroundThe impact of temperature on morbidity remains largely unknown. Moreover, extensive evidence indicates contrasting patterns between temperature-mortality and temperature-morbidity associations. A nationwide comparison of the impact of temperature on mortality and morbidity in more specific subgroups is necessary to strengthen understanding and help explore underlying mechanisms by identifying susceptible populations.ObjectiveWe performed this study to quantify and compare the impact of temperature on mortality and morbidity in 47 prefectures in Japan.MethodsWe applied a two-stage time-series design with distributed lag nonlinear models and mixed-effect multivariate meta-analysis to assess the association of temperature with mortality and morbidity by causes (all-cause, circulatory, and respiratory) at prefecture and country levels between 2015 and 2019. Subgroup analysis was conducted by sex, age, and regions.ResultsThe patterns and magnitudes of temperature impacts on morbidity and mortality differed. For all-cause outcomes, cold exhibited larger effects on mortality, and heat showed larger effects on morbidity. At specific temperature percentiles, cold (first percentile) was associated with a higher relative risk (RR) of mortality [1.45; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.39, 1.52] than morbidity (1.33; 95% CI: 1.26, 1.40), as compared to the minimum mortality/morbidity temperature. Heat (99th percentile) was associated with a higher risk of morbidity (1.30; 95% CI: 1.28, 1.33) than mortality (1.04; 95% CI: 1.02, 1.06). For cause-specific diseases, mortality due to circulatory diseases was more susceptible to heat and cold than morbidity. However, for respiratory diseases, both cold and heat showed higher risks for morbidity than mortality. Subgroup analyses suggested varied associations depending on specific outcomes.DiscussionDistinct patterns were observed for the association of temperature with mortality and morbidity, underlying different mechanisms of temperature on different end points, and the differences in population susceptibility are possible explanations. Future mitigation policies and preventive measures against nonoptimal temperatures should be specific to disease outcomes and targeted at susceptible populations. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP12854.

Dataset Information

Nationwide variation in the effects of temperature on infectious gastroenteritis incidence in Japan.

Publications

Nationwide variation in the effects of temperature on infectious gastroenteritis incidence in Japan.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets