Dataset Information

Application of a Hybrid Forest Growth Model to Evaluate Climate Change Impacts on Productivity, Nutrient Cycling and Mortality in a Montane Forest Ecosystem.

ABSTRACT: Climate change introduces considerable uncertainty in forest management planning and outcomes, potentially undermining efforts at achieving sustainable practices. Here, we describe the development and application of the FORECAST Climate model. Constructed using a hybrid simulation approach, the model includes an explicit representation of the effect of temperature and moisture availability on tree growth and survival, litter decomposition, and nutrient cycling. The model also includes a representation of the impact of increasing atmospheric CO2 on water use efficiency, but no direct CO2 fertilization effect. FORECAST Climate was evaluated for its ability to reproduce the effects of historical climate on Douglas-fir and lodgepole pine growth in a montane forest in southern British Columbia, Canada, as measured using tree ring analysis. The model was subsequently used to project the long-term impacts of alternative future climate change scenarios on forest productivity in young and established stands. There was a close association between predicted sapwood production and measured tree ring chronologies, providing confidence that model is able to predict the relative impact of annual climate variability on tree productivity. Simulations of future climate change suggest a modest increase in productivity in young stands of both species related to an increase in growing season length. In contrast, results showed a negative impact on stemwood biomass production (particularly in the case of lodgepole pine) for established stands due to increased moisture stress mortality.

SUBMITTER: Seely B

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4534035 | biostudies-literature | 2015

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Application of a Hybrid Forest Growth Model to Evaluate Climate Change Impacts on Productivity, Nutrient Cycling and Mortality in a Montane Forest Ecosystem.

Seely Brad B Welham Clive C Scoullar Kim K

PloS one 20150812 8

Climate change introduces considerable uncertainty in forest management planning and outcomes, potentially undermining efforts at achieving sustainable practices. Here, we describe the development and application of the FORECAST Climate model. Constructed using a hybrid simulation approach, the model includes an explicit representation of the effect of temperature and moisture availability on tree growth and survival, litter decomposition, and nutrient cycling. The model also includes a represen ...[more]

PMID: 26267446

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Project description:Wetlands are globally important ecosystems that provide critical services for natural communities and human society. Montane wetland ecosystems are expected to be among the most sensitive to changing climate, as their persistence depends on factors directly influenced by climate (e.g. precipitation, snowpack, evaporation). Despite their importance and climate sensitivity, wetlands tend to be understudied due to a lack of tools and data relative to what is available for other ecosystem types. Here, we develop and demonstrate a new method for projecting climate-induced hydrologic changes in montane wetlands. Using observed wetland water levels and soil moisture simulated by the physically based Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model, we developed site-specific regression models relating soil moisture to observed wetland water levels to simulate the hydrologic behavior of four types of montane wetlands (ephemeral, intermediate, perennial, permanent wetlands) in the U. S. Pacific Northwest. The hybrid models captured observed wetland dynamics in many cases, though were less robust in others. We then used these models to a) hindcast historical wetland behavior in response to observed climate variability (1916-2010 or later) and classify wetland types, and b) project the impacts of climate change on montane wetlands using global climate model scenarios for the 2040s and 2080s (A1B emissions scenario). These future projections show that climate-induced changes to key driving variables (reduced snowpack, higher evapotranspiration, extended summer drought) will result in earlier and faster drawdown in Pacific Northwest montane wetlands, leading to systematic reductions in water levels, shortened wetland hydroperiods, and increased probability of drying. Intermediate hydroperiod wetlands are projected to experience the greatest changes. For the 2080s scenario, widespread conversion of intermediate wetlands to fast-drying ephemeral wetlands will likely reduce wetland habitat availability for many species.

Project description:Despite growing understanding of how rising temperatures affect carbon cycling, the impact of long-term and whole forest warming on the suite of essential and potentially limiting nutrients remains understudied, particularly for elements other than N and P. Whole ecosystem warming experiments are limited, environmental gradients are often confounded by variation in factors other than temperature, and few studies have been conducted in the tropics. We examined litterfall, live foliar nutrient content, foliar nutrient resorption efficiency (NRE), nutrient return, and foliar nutrient use efficiency (NUE) of total litterfall and live foliage of two dominant trees to test hypotheses about how increasing mean annual temperature (MAT) impacts the availability and ecological stoichiometry of C, N, P, K, Ca, Mg, Mn, Fe, Zn, and Cu in tropical montane wet forests located along a 5.2°C gradient in Hawaii. Live foliage responded to increasing MAT with increased N and K concentrations, decreased C and Mn concentrations, and no detectable change in P concentration or in foliar NRE. Increases in MAT increased nutrient return via litterfall for N, K, Mg, and Zn and foliar NUE for Mn and Cu, while decreasing nutrient return for Cu and foliar NUE for K. The N:P of litterfall and live foliage increased with MAT, while there was no detectable effect of MAT on C:P. The ratio of live foliar N or P to base cations and micronutrients was variable across elements and species. Increased MAT resulted in declining N:K and P:K for one species, while only P:K declined for the other. N:Ca and N:Mn increased with MAT for both species, while N:Mg increased for one and P:Mn increased for the other species. Overall, results from this study suggest that rising MAT in tropical montane wet forest: (i) increases plant productivity and the cycling and availability of N, K, Mg, and Zn; (ii) decreases the cycling and availability of Mn and Cu; (iii) has little direct effect on P, Ca or Fe; and (iv) affects ecological stoichiometry in ways that may exacerbate P-as well as other base cation and micronutrient - limitations to tropical montane forest productivity.

Dataset Information

Application of a Hybrid Forest Growth Model to Evaluate Climate Change Impacts on Productivity, Nutrient Cycling and Mortality in a Montane Forest Ecosystem.

Publications

Application of a Hybrid Forest Growth Model to Evaluate Climate Change Impacts on Productivity, Nutrient Cycling and Mortality in a Montane Forest Ecosystem.

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