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Meteorologically Driven Simulations of Dengue Epidemics in San Juan, PR.

ABSTRACT: Meteorological factors influence dengue virus ecology by modulating vector mosquito population dynamics, viral replication, and transmission. Dynamic modeling techniques can be used to examine how interactions among meteorological variables, vectors and the dengue virus influence transmission. We developed a dengue fever simulation model by coupling a dynamic simulation model for Aedes aegypti, the primary mosquito vector for dengue, with a basic epidemiological Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model. Employing a Monte Carlo approach, we simulated dengue transmission during the period of 2010-2013 in San Juan, PR, where dengue fever is endemic. The results of 9600 simulations using varied model parameters were evaluated by statistical comparison (r2) with surveillance data of dengue cases reported to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. To identify the most influential parameters associated with dengue virus transmission for each period the top 1% of best-fit model simulations were retained and compared. Using the top simulations, dengue cases were simulated well for 2010 (r2 = 0.90, p = 0.03), 2011 (r2 = 0.83, p = 0.05), and 2012 (r2 = 0.94, p = 0.01); however, simulations were weaker for 2013 (r2 = 0.25, p = 0.25) and the entire four-year period (r2 = 0.44, p = 0.002). Analysis of parameter values from retained simulations revealed that rain dependent container habitats were more prevalent in best-fitting simulations during the wetter 2010 and 2011 years, while human managed (i.e. manually filled) container habitats were more prevalent in best-fitting simulations during the drier 2012 and 2013 years. The simulations further indicate that rainfall strongly modulates the timing of dengue (e.g., epidemics occurred earlier during rainy years) while temperature modulates the annual number of dengue fever cases. Our results suggest that meteorological factors have a time-variable influence on dengue transmission relative to other important environmental and human factors.

SUBMITTER: Morin CW

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4537107 | biostudies-literature | 2015 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Meteorologically Driven Simulations of Dengue Epidemics in San Juan, PR.

Morin Cory W CW Monaghan Andrew J AJ Hayden Mary H MH Barrera Roberto R Ernst Kacey K

PLoS neglected tropical diseases 20150814 8

Meteorological factors influence dengue virus ecology by modulating vector mosquito population dynamics, viral replication, and transmission. Dynamic modeling techniques can be used to examine how interactions among meteorological variables, vectors and the dengue virus influence transmission. We developed a dengue fever simulation model by coupling a dynamic simulation model for Aedes aegypti, the primary mosquito vector for dengue, with a basic epidemiological Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Re ...[more]

PMID: 26275146

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Project description:BackgroundPredictive models can serve as early warning systems and can be used to forecast future risk of various infectious diseases. Conventionally, regression and time series models are used to forecast dengue incidence, using dengue surveillance (e.g., case counts) and weather data. However, these models may be limited in terms of model assumptions and the number of predictors that can be included. Machine learning (ML) methods are designed to work with a large number of predictors and thus offer an appealing alternative. Here, we compared the performance of ML algorithms with that of regression models in predicting dengue cases and outbreaks from 4 to up to 12 weeks in advance. Many countries lack sufficient health surveillance infrastructure, as such we evaluated the contribution of dengue surveillance and weather data on the predictive power of these models.MethodsWe developed ML, regression, and time series models to forecast weekly dengue case counts and outbreaks in Iquitos, Peru; San Juan, Puerto Rico; and Singapore from 1990-2016. Forecasts were generated using available weekly dengue surveillance, and weather data. We evaluated the agreement between model forecasts and actual dengue observations using Mean Absolute Error and Matthew's Correlation Coefficient (MCC).ResultsFor near term predictions of weekly case counts and when using surveillance data, ML models had 21% and 33% less error than regression and time series models respectively. However, using weather data only, ML models did not demonstrate a practical advantage. When forecasting weekly dengue outbreaks 12 weeks in advance, ML models achieved a maximum MCC of 0.61.ConclusionsOur results identified 2 scenarios when ML models are advantageous over regression model: 1) predicting dengue weekly case counts 4 weeks ahead when dengue surveillance data are available and 2) predicting weekly dengue outbreaks 12 weeks ahead when dengue surveillance data are unavailable. Given the advantages of ML models, dengue early warning systems may be improved by the inclusion of these models.

Project description:This study attempted to assess whether conspecific or congeneric sponges around San Juan Island, Washington, harbor specific bacterial communities. We used a combination of culture-independent DNA fingerprinting techniques (terminal restriction fragment length polymorphism and denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis [DGGE]) and culture-dependent approaches. The results indicated that the bacterial communities in the water column consisted of more diverse bacterial ribotypes than and were drastically different from those associated with the sponges. High levels of similarity in sponge-associated bacterial communities were found only in Myxilla incrustans and Haliclona rufescens, while the bacterial communities in Halichondria panicea varied substantially among sites. Certain terminal restriction fragments or DGGE bands were consistently obtained for different individuals of M. incrustans and H. rufescens collected from different sites, suggesting that there are stable or even specific associations of certain bacteria in these two sponges. However, no specific bacterial associations were found for H. panicea or for any one sponge genus. Sequencing of nine DGGE bands resulted in recovery of seven sequences that best matched the sequences of uncultured Proteobacteria. Three of these sequences fell into the sponge-specific sequence clusters previously suggested. An uncultured alphaproteobacterium and a culturable Bacillus sp. were found exclusively in all M. incrustans sponges, while an uncultured gammaproteobacterium was unique to H. rufescens. In contrast, the cultivation approach indicated that sponges contained a large proportion of Firmicutes, especially Bacillus, and revealed large variations in the culturable bacterial communities associated with congeneric and conspecific sponges. This study revealed sponge species-specific but not genus- or site-specific associations between sponges and bacterial communities and emphasized the importance of using a combination of techniques for studying microbial communities.

Dataset Information

Meteorologically Driven Simulations of Dengue Epidemics in San Juan, PR.

Publications

Meteorologically Driven Simulations of Dengue Epidemics in San Juan, PR.

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