Dataset Information

Mathematical Modeling of Hepatitis C Prevalence Reduction with Antiviral Treatment Scale-Up in Persons Who Inject Drugs in Metropolitan Chicago.

ABSTRACT:

Background/aim

New direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) provide an opportunity to combat hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in persons who inject drugs (PWID). Here we use a mathematical model to predict the impact of a DAA-treatment scale-up on HCV prevalence among PWID and the estimated cost in metropolitan Chicago.

Methods

To estimate the HCV antibody and HCV-RNA (chronic infection) prevalence among the metropolitan Chicago PWID population, we used empirical data from three large epidemiological studies. Cost of DAAs is assumed $50,000 per person.

Results

Approximately 32,000 PWID reside in metropolitan Chicago with an estimated HCV-RNA prevalence of 47% or 15,040 cases. Approximately 22,000 PWID (69% of the total PWID population) attend harm reduction (HR) programs, such as syringe exchange programs, and have an estimated HCV-RNA prevalence of 30%. There are about 11,000 young PWID (<30 years old) with an estimated HCV-RNA prevalence of 10% (PWID in these two subpopulations overlap). The model suggests that the following treatment scale-up is needed to reduce the baseline HCV-RNA prevalence by one-half over 10 years of treatment [cost per year, min-max in millions]: 35 per 1,000 [$50-$77] in the overall PWID population, 19 per 1,000 [$20-$26] for persons in HR programs, and 5 per 1,000 [$3-$4] for young PWID.

Conclusions

Treatment scale-up could dramatically reduce the prevalence of chronic HCV infection among PWID in Chicago, who are the main reservoir for on-going HCV transmission. Focusing treatment on PWID attending HR programs and/or young PWID could have a significant impact on HCV prevalence in these subpopulations at an attainable cost.

SUBMITTER: Echevarria D

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4546683 | biostudies-literature | 2015

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Mathematical Modeling of Hepatitis C Prevalence Reduction with Antiviral Treatment Scale-Up in Persons Who Inject Drugs in Metropolitan Chicago.

Echevarria Desarae D Gutfraind Alexander A Boodram Basmattee B Major Marian M Del Valle Sara S Cotler Scott J SJ Dahari Harel H

PloS one 20150821 8

<h4>Background/aim</h4>New direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) provide an opportunity to combat hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in persons who inject drugs (PWID). Here we use a mathematical model to predict the impact of a DAA-treatment scale-up on HCV prevalence among PWID and the estimated cost in metropolitan Chicago.<h4>Methods</h4>To estimate the HCV antibody and HCV-RNA (chronic infection) prevalence among the metropolitan Chicago PWID population, we used empirical data from three large epi ...[more]

PMID: 26295805

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Project description:BACKGROUND AND AIMS:Persons who inject drugs (PWID) are at highest risk for acquiring and transmitting hepatitis C (HCV) infection. The recent availability of oral direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapy with reported cure rates >90% can prevent HCV transmission, making HCV elimination an attainable goal among PWID. The World Health Organization (WHO) recently proposed a 90% reduction in HCV incidence as a key objective. However, given barriers to the use of DAAs in PWID, including cost, restricted access to DAAs, and risk of reinfection, combination strategies including the availability of effective vaccines are needed to eradicate HCV as a public health threat. This study aims to model the cost and efficacy of a dual modality approach using HCV vaccines combined with DAAs to reduce HCV incidence by 90% and prevalence by 50% in PWID populations. METHODS:We developed a mathematical model that represents the HCV epidemic among PWID and calibrated it to empirical data from metropolitan Chicago, Illinois. Four medical interventions were considered: vaccination of HCV naive PWID, DAA treatment, DAA treatment followed by vaccination, and, a combination of vaccination and DAA treatment. RESULTS:The combination of vaccination and DAAs is the lowest cost-expensive intervention for achieving the WHO target of 90% incidence reduction. The use of DAAs without a vaccine is much less cost-effective with the additional risk of reinfection after treatment. Vaccination of naïve PWID alone, even when scaled-up to all reachable PWID, cannot achieve 90% reduction of incidence in high-prevalence populations due to infections occurring before vaccination. Similarly, the lowest cost-expensive way to halve prevalence in 15?years is through the combination of vaccination and DAAs. CONCLUSIONS:The modeling results underscore the importance of developing an effective HCV vaccine and augmenting DAAs with vaccines in HCV intervention strategies in order to achieve efficient reductions in incidence and prevalence.

Project description:BackgroundHistorically, hepatitis C virus (HCV) pretreatment evaluation has required multiple visits, frequently resulting in loss to follow-up and a delayed initiation of treatment. New technologies can accelerate this process. We investigated the feasibility of a single-day evaluation program and its impact on evaluation completion, treatment eligibility awareness, and treatment initiation among people who inject drugs (PWIDs).MethodsHCV-infected PWID who were unaware if they were eligible for treatment were recruited in a prospective evaluation of an accelerated model of care between 2017 and 2019 and compared to a historical cohort. The patients underwent a medical evaluation, rapid HCV viral load testing, and transient elastography during a single visit, at the end of which they were informed whether they were eligible for treatment. A historical cohort of patients fulfilling the same inclusion criteria and evaluated with the usual standard of care spanning several visits who were examined at the addiction medicine clinic from 2014 to 2016 served as the comparison group.ResultsThe accelerated and historical cohorts included 99 and 76 patients, respectively. The cohorts did not differ significantly by age and gender, but more patients in the historical cohort were undergoing opioid agonist therapy, while more patients in the accelerated cohort injected drugs in the last month. An accelerated evaluation resulted in a higher rate of evaluation completion (100% vs 67.1%; P < .001). Among those eligible for treatment, the proportion of those initiating treatment was similar between the groups (51/64 (79.7%) vs. 26/37 (70.3%); P = .28). The delay in the initiation of treatment was shorter in the accelerated cohort than in the historical cohort (69 (IQR: 49-106) days vs. 219 (IQR: 141-416) days; P < .001).ConclusionsAccelerated evaluation enhanced the awareness of eligibility and reduced the time to initiation among eligible patients.Trial registrationThis study is registered on www.clinicaltrials.gov (NCT02755402).

Dataset Information

Mathematical Modeling of Hepatitis C Prevalence Reduction with Antiviral Treatment Scale-Up in Persons Who Inject Drugs in Metropolitan Chicago.

Background/aim

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Mathematical Modeling of Hepatitis C Prevalence Reduction with Antiviral Treatment Scale-Up in Persons Who Inject Drugs in Metropolitan Chicago.

Similar Datasets

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