Dataset Information

Modelling the Northward Expansion of Culicoides sonorensis (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) under Future Climate Scenarios.

ABSTRACT: Climate change is affecting the distribution of pathogens and their arthropod vectors worldwide, particularly at northern latitudes. The distribution of Culicoides sonorensis (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) plays a key role in affecting the emergence and spread of significant vector borne diseases such as Bluetongue (BT) and Epizootic Hemorrhagic Disease (EHD) at the border between USA and Canada. We used 50 presence points for C. sonorensis collected in Montana (USA) and south-central Alberta (Canada) between 2002 and 2012, together with monthly climatic and environmental predictors to develop a series of alternative maximum entropy distribution models. The best distribution model under current climatic conditions was selected through the Akaike Information Criterion, and included four predictors: Vapour Pressure Deficit of July, standard deviation of Elevation, Land Cover and mean Precipitation of May. This model was then projected into three climate change scenarios adopted by the IPCC in its 5th assessment report and defined as Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5. Climate change data for each predictor and each RCP were calculated for two time points pooling decadal data around each one of them: 2030 (2021-2040) and 2050 (2041-2060). Our projections showed that the areas predicted to be at moderate-high probability of C. sonorensis occurrence would increase from the baseline scenario to 2030 and from 2030 to 2050 for each RCP. The projection also indicated that the current northern limit of C. sonorensis distribution is expected to move northwards to above 53°N. This may indicate an increased risk of Culicoides-borne diseases occurrence over the next decades, particularly at the USA-Canada border, as a result of changes which favor C. sonorensis presence when associated to other factors (i.e. host and pathogen factors). Recent observations of EHD outbreaks in northern Montana and southern Alberta supported our projections and considerations. The results of this study can inform the development of cost effective surveillance programs, targeting areas within the predicted limits of C. sonorensis geographical occurrence under current and future climatic conditions.

SUBMITTER: Zuliani A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4547716 | biostudies-literature | 2015

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Modelling the Northward Expansion of Culicoides sonorensis (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) under Future Climate Scenarios.

Zuliani Anna A Massolo Alessandro A Lysyk Timothy T Johnson Gregory G Marshall Shawn S Berger Kathryn K Cork Susan Catherine SC

PloS one 20150824 8

Climate change is affecting the distribution of pathogens and their arthropod vectors worldwide, particularly at northern latitudes. The distribution of Culicoides sonorensis (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) plays a key role in affecting the emergence and spread of significant vector borne diseases such as Bluetongue (BT) and Epizootic Hemorrhagic Disease (EHD) at the border between USA and Canada. We used 50 presence points for C. sonorensis collected in Montana (USA) and south-central Alberta (Canad ...[more]

PMID: 26301509

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Project description:BackgroundFemale Culicoides sonorensis midges (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) are vectors of pathogens that impact livestock and wildlife in the United States. Little is known about their biology on a molecular-genetic level, including components of their immune system. Because the insect immune response is involved with important processes such as gut microbial homeostasis and vector competence, our aims were to identify components of the midge innate immune system and examine their expression profiles in response to diet across time.MethodsIn our previous work, we de novo sequenced and analyzed the transcriptional landscape of female midges under several feeding states including teneral (unfed) and early and late time points after blood and sucrose. Here, those transcriptomes were further analyzed to identify insect innate immune orthologs, particularly humoral immune response elements. Additionally, we examined immune gene expression profiles in response to diet over time, on both a transcriptome-wide, whole-midge level and more specifically via qRTPCR analysis of antimicrobial peptide (AMP) expression in the alimentary canal.ResultsWe identified functional units comprising the immune deficiency (Imd), Toll and JAK/STAT pathways, including humoral factors, transmembrane receptors, signaling components, transcription factors/regulators and effectors such as AMPs. Feeding altered the expression of receptors, regulators, AMPs, prophenoloxidase and thioester-containing proteins, where blood had a greater effect than sucrose on the expression profiles of most innate immune components. qRTPCR of AMP genes showed that all five were significantly upregulated in the alimentary canal after blood feeding, possibly in response to proliferating populations of gut bacteria.ConclusionsIdentification and functional insight of humoral/innate immune components in female C. sonorensis updates our knowledge of the molecular biology of this important vector. Because diet alone influenced the expression of immune pathway components, including their effectors, subsequent study of the role of innate immunity in biological processes such as gut homeostasis and life history are being pursued. Furthermore, since the humoral response is a key contributor in gut immunity, manipulating immune gene expression will help in uncovering genetic components of vector competence, including midgut barriers to infection. The results of such studies will serve as a platform for designing novel transmission-blocking strategies.

Project description:BackgroundReunion Island regularly faces outbreaks of bluetongue and epizootic hemorrhagic diseases, two insect-borne orbiviral diseases of ruminants. Hematophagous midges of the genus Culicoides (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) are the vectors of bluetongue (BTV) and epizootic hemorrhagic disease (EHDV) viruses. In a previous study, statistical models based on environmental and meteorological data were developed for the five Culicoides species present in the island to provide a better understanding of their ecology and predict their presence and abundance. The purpose of this study was to couple these statistical models with a Geographic Information System (GIS) to produce dynamic maps of the distribution of Culicoides throughout the island.MethodsBased on meteorological data from ground weather stations and satellite-derived environmental data, the abundance of each of the five Culicoides species was estimated for the 2214 husbandry locations on the island for the period ranging from February 2016 to June 2018. A large-scale Culicoides sampling campaign including 100 farms was carried out in March 2018 to validate the model.ResultsAccording to the model predictions, no husbandry location was free of Culicoides throughout the study period. The five Culicoides species were present on average in 57.0% of the husbandry locations for C. bolitinos Meiswinkel, 40.7% for C. enderleini Cornet & Brunhes, 26.5% for C. grahamii Austen, 87.1% for C. imicola Kieffer and 91.8% for C. kibatiensis Goetghebuer. The models also showed high seasonal variations in their distribution. During the validation process, predictions were acceptable for C. bolitinos, C. enderleini and C. kibatiensis, with normalized root mean square errors (NRMSE) of 15.4%, 13.6% and 16.5%, respectively. The NRMSE was 27.4% for C. grahamii. For C. imicola, the NRMSE was acceptable (11.9%) considering all husbandry locations except in two specific areas, the Cirque de Salazie-an inner mountainous part of the island-and the sea edge, where the model overestimated its abundance.ConclusionsOur model provides, for the first time to our knowledge, an operational tool to better understand and predict the distribution of Culicoides in Reunion Island. As it predicts a wide spatial distribution of the five Culicoides species throughout the year and taking into consideration their vector competence, our results suggest that BTV and EHDV can circulate continuously on the island. As further actions, our model could be coupled with an epidemiological model of BTV and EHDV transmission to improve risk assessment of Culicoides-borne diseases on the island.

Project description:In Senegal, considerable mortality in the equine population and hence major economic losses were caused by the African horse sickness (AHS) epizootic in 2007. Culicoides oxystoma and Culicoides imicola, known or suspected of being vectors of bluetongue and AHS viruses are two predominant species in the vicinity of horses and are present all year-round in Niayes area, Senegal. The aim of this study was to better understand the environmental and climatic drivers of the dynamics of these two species. Culicoides collections were obtained using OVI (Onderstepoort Veterinary Institute) light traps at each of the 5 sites for three nights of consecutive collection per month over one year. Cross Correlation Map analysis was performed to determine the time-lags for which environmental variables and abundance data were the most correlated. C. oxystoma and C. imicola count data were highly variable and overdispersed. Despite modelling large Culicoides counts (over 220,000 Culicoides captured in 354 night-traps), using on-site climate measures, overdispersion persisted in Poisson, negative binomial, Poisson regression mixed-effect with random effect at the site of capture models. The only model able to take into account overdispersion was the Poisson regression mixed-effect model with nested random effects at the site and date of capture levels. According to this model, meteorological variables that contribute to explaining the dynamics of C. oxystoma and C. imicola abundances were: mean temperature and relative humidity of the capture day, mean humidity between 21 and 19 days prior a capture event, density of ruminants, percentage cover of water bodies within a 2 km radius and interaction between temperature and humidity for C. oxystoma; mean rainfall and NDVI of the capture day and percentage cover of water bodies for C. imicola. Other variables such as soil moisture, wind speed, degree days, land cover or landscape metrics could be tested to improve the models. Further work should also assess whether other trapping methods such as host-baited traps help reduce overdispersion.

Dataset Information

Modelling the Northward Expansion of Culicoides sonorensis (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) under Future Climate Scenarios.

Publications

Modelling the Northward Expansion of Culicoides sonorensis (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) under Future Climate Scenarios.

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