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Should Never-Smokers at Increased Risk for Lung Cancer Be Screened?

ABSTRACT: Lung cancer in never-smokers ranks among the 10 most common causes of death due to cancer worldwide and in the United States. However, it is unknown whether never-smokers at elevated risk for developing lung cancer may benefit from lung cancer screening.The MIcrosimulation SCreening ANalysis (MISCAN)-Lung microsimulation model was used to assess the effects of lung cancer screening for simulated cohorts of never-smokers at different levels of relative risk (RR) for lung cancer compared with never-smokers at average risk. The benefits and harms of screening were estimated for each cohort and compared with those of a cohort of ever-smokers eligible for lung cancer screening according to the United States Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) criteria.The relative lung cancer mortality reduction in never-smokers was higher than the USPSTF eligible cohort (37% compared with 32%). However, the number of life-years gained per lung cancer death averted was lower (10.4 compared with 11.9) and the proportion of overdiagnosed cancers was higher (9.6% compared with 8.4%) for never-smokers compared with the USPSTF eligible cohort, as never-smokers are diagnosed at a later age. The estimated number of screens per lung cancer death averted ranged from 6162 for never-smokers at average risk to 151 for never-smokers with an RR of 35 compared with 353 for the USPSTF eligible cohort.Never-smokers with RRs of 15 to 35 have similar to better trade-offs between benefits and harms compared with ever-smokers recommended for lung cancer screening by the USPSTF guidelines. For most never-smokers, lung cancer screening is not beneficial.

SUBMITTER: Ten Haaf K

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4549205 | biostudies-literature | 2015 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Should Never-Smokers at Increased Risk for Lung Cancer Be Screened?

Ten Haaf Kevin K de Koning Harry J HJ

Journal of thoracic oncology : official publication of the International Association for the Study of Lung Cancer 20150901 9

<h4>Introduction</h4>Lung cancer in never-smokers ranks among the 10 most common causes of death due to cancer worldwide and in the United States. However, it is unknown whether never-smokers at elevated risk for developing lung cancer may benefit from lung cancer screening.<h4>Methods</h4>The MIcrosimulation SCreening ANalysis (MISCAN)-Lung microsimulation model was used to assess the effects of lung cancer screening for simulated cohorts of never-smokers at different levels of relative risk (R ...[more]

PMID: 26287320

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Project description:BackgroundMost lung cancer risk prediction models were developed in European and North-American cohorts of smokers aged ≥ 55 years, while less is known about risk profiles in Asia, especially for never smokers or individuals aged < 50 years. Hence, we aimed to develop and validate a lung cancer risk estimate tool for ever and never smokers across a wide age range.MethodsBased on the China Kadoorie Biobank cohort, we first systematically selected the predictors and explored the nonlinear association of predictors with lung cancer risk using restricted cubic splines. Then, we separately developed risk prediction models to construct a lung cancer risk score (LCRS) in 159,715 ever smokers and 336,526 never smokers. The LCRS was further validated in an independent cohort over a median follow-up of 13.6 years, consisting of 14,153 never smokers and 5,890 ever smokers.ResultsA total of 13 and 9 routinely available predictors were identified for ever and never smokers, respectively. Of these predictors, cigarettes per day and quit years showed nonlinear associations with lung cancer risk (Pnon-linear < 0.001). The curve of lung cancer incidence increased rapidly above 20 cigarettes per day and then was relatively flat until approximately 30 cigarettes per day. We also observed that lung cancer risk declined sharply within the first 5 years of quitting, and then continued to decrease but at a slower rate in the subsequent years. The 6-year area under the receiver operating curve for the ever and never smokers' models were respectively 0.778 and 0.733 in the derivation cohort, and 0.774 and 0.759 in the validation cohort. In the validation cohort, the 10-year cumulative incidence of lung cancer was 0.39% and 2.57% for ever smokers with low (< 166.2) and intermediate-high LCRS (≥ 166.2), respectively. Never smokers with a high LCRS (≥ 21.2) had a higher 10-year cumulative incidence rate than those with a low LCRS (< 21.2; 1.05% vs. 0.22%). An online risk evaluation tool (LCKEY; http://ccra.njmu.edu.cn/lckey/web) was developed to facilitate the use of LCRS.ConclusionsThe LCRS can be an effective risk assessment tool designed for ever and never smokers aged 30 to 80 years.

Project description:Although obesity has been directly linked to the development of many cancers, many epidemiological studies have found that body mass index (BMI)--a surrogate marker of obesity--is inversely associated with the risk of lung cancer. These studies are difficult to interpret because of potential confounding by cigarette smoking, a major risk factor for lung cancer that is associated with lower BMI.We prospectively examined the association between BMI and the risk of lung cancer among 448?732 men and women aged 50-71 years who were recruited during 1995-1996 for the National Institutes of Health-AARP Diet and Health Study. BMI was calculated based on the participant's self-reported height and weight on the baseline questionnaire. We identified 9437 incident lung carcinomas (including 415 in never smokers) during a mean follow-up of 9.7 years through 2006. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) with adjustment for lung cancer risk factors, including smoking status. To address potential bias due to preexisting undiagnosed disease, we excluded potentially unhealthy participants in sensitivity analyses. All statistical tests were two-sided.The crude incidence rate of lung cancer over the study follow-up period was 233 per 100?000 person-years among men and 192 per 100?000 person-years among women. BMI was inversely associated with the risk of lung cancer among both men and women (BMI ?35 vs 22.5-24.99 kg/m(2): HR = 0.81, 95% CI = 0.70 to 0.94 and HR = 0.73, 95% CI = 0.61 to 0.87, respectively). The inverse association was restricted to current and former smokers and was stronger after adjustment for smoking. Among smokers, the inverse association persisted even after finely stratifying on smoking status, time since quitting smoking, and number of cigarettes smoked per day. Sensitivity analyses did not support the possibility that the inverse association was due to prevalent undiagnosed disease.Our results suggest that a higher BMI is associated with a reduced risk of lung cancer in current and former smokers. Our inability to attribute the inverse association between BMI and the risk of lung cancer to residual confounding by smoking or to bias suggests the need for considering other explanations.

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Should Never-Smokers at Increased Risk for Lung Cancer Be Screened?

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Should Never-Smokers at Increased Risk for Lung Cancer Be Screened?

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