Dataset Information

The Impact of a One-Dose versus Two-Dose Oral Cholera Vaccine Regimen in Outbreak Settings: A Modeling Study.

ABSTRACT:

Background

In 2013, a stockpile of oral cholera vaccine (OCV) was created for use in outbreak response, but vaccine availability remains severely limited. Innovative strategies are needed to maximize the health impact and minimize the logistical barriers to using available vaccine. Here we ask under what conditions the use of one dose rather than the internationally licensed two-dose protocol may do both.

Methods and findings

Using mathematical models we determined the minimum relative single-dose efficacy (MRSE) at which single-dose reactive campaigns are expected to be as or more effective than two-dose campaigns with the same amount of vaccine. Average one- and two-dose OCV effectiveness was estimated from published literature and compared to the MRSE. Results were applied to recent outbreaks in Haiti, Zimbabwe, and Guinea using stochastic simulations to illustrate the potential impact of one- and two-dose campaigns. At the start of an epidemic, a single dose must be 35%-56% as efficacious as two doses to avert the same number of cases with a fixed amount of vaccine (i.e., MRSE between 35% and 56%). This threshold decreases as vaccination is delayed. Short-term OCV effectiveness is estimated to be 77% (95% CI 57%-88%) for two doses and 44% (95% CI -27% to 76%) for one dose. This results in a one-dose relative efficacy estimate of 57% (interquartile range 13%-88%), which is above conservative MRSE estimates. Using our best estimates of one- and two-dose efficacy, we projected that a single-dose reactive campaign could have prevented 70,584 (95% prediction interval [PI] 55,943-86,205) cases in Zimbabwe, 78,317 (95% PI 57,435-100,150) in Port-au-Prince, Haiti, and 2,826 (95% PI 2,490-3,170) cases in Conakry, Guinea: 1.1 to 1.2 times as many as a two-dose campaign. While extensive sensitivity analyses were performed, our projections of cases averted in past epidemics are based on severely limited single-dose efficacy data and may not fully capture uncertainty due to imperfect surveillance data and uncertainty about the transmission dynamics of cholera in each setting.

Conclusions

Reactive vaccination campaigns using a single dose of OCV may avert more cases and deaths than a standard two-dose campaign when vaccine supplies are limited, while at the same time reducing logistical complexity. These findings should motivate consideration of the trade-offs between one- and two-dose campaigns in resource-constrained settings, though further field efficacy data are needed and should be a priority in any one-dose campaign.

SUBMITTER: Azman AS

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4549326 | biostudies-literature | 2015 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

The Impact of a One-Dose versus Two-Dose Oral Cholera Vaccine Regimen in Outbreak Settings: A Modeling Study.

Azman Andrew S AS Luquero Francisco J FJ Ciglenecki Iza I Grais Rebecca F RF Sack David A DA Lessler Justin J

PLoS medicine 20150825 8

<h4>Background</h4>In 2013, a stockpile of oral cholera vaccine (OCV) was created for use in outbreak response, but vaccine availability remains severely limited. Innovative strategies are needed to maximize the health impact and minimize the logistical barriers to using available vaccine. Here we ask under what conditions the use of one dose rather than the internationally licensed two-dose protocol may do both.<h4>Methods and findings</h4>Using mathematical models we determined the minimum rel ...[more]

PMID: 26305226

Similar Datasets

Project description:Controlling cholera remains a significant challenge in Sub-Saharan Africa. In areas where access to safe water and sanitation are limited, oral cholera vaccine (OCV) can save lives. Establishment of a global stockpile for OCV reflects increasing priority for use of cholera vaccines in endemic settings. Community acceptance of vaccines, however, is critical and sociocultural features of acceptance require attention for effective implementation. This study identifies and compares sociocultural determinants of anticipated OCV acceptance across populations in Southeastern Democratic Republic of Congo, Western Kenya and Zanzibar.Cross-sectional studies were conducted using similar but locally-adapted semistructured interviews among 1095 respondents in three African settings. Logistic regression models identified sociocultural determinants of OCV acceptance from these studies in endemic areas of Southeastern Democratic Republic of Congo (SE-DRC), Western Kenya (W-Kenya) and Zanzibar. Meta-analytic techniques highlighted common and distinctive determinants in the three settings.Anticipated OCV acceptance was high in all settings. More than 93% of community respondents overall indicated interest in a no-cost vaccine. Higher anticipated acceptance was observed in areas with less access to public health facilities. In all settings awareness of cholera prevention methods (safe food consumption and garbage disposal) and relating ingestion to cholera causation were associated with greater acceptance. Higher age, larger households, lack of education, social vulnerability and knowledge of oral rehydration solution for self-treatment were negatively associated with anticipated OCV acceptance. Setting-specific determinants of acceptance included reporting a reliable income (W-Kenya and Zanzibar, not SE-DRC). In SE-DRC, intention to purchase an OCV appeared unrelated to ability to pay. Rural residents were less likely than urban counterparts to accept an OCV in W-Kenya, but more likely in Zanzibar. Prayer as a form of self-treatment was associated with vaccine acceptance in SE-DRC and W-Kenya, but not in Zanzibar.These cholera-endemic African communities are especially interested in no-cost OCVs. Health education and attention to local social and cultural features of cholera and vaccines would likely increase vaccine coverage. High demand and absence of insurmountable sociocultural barriers to vaccination with OCVs indicate potential for mass vaccination in planning for comprehensive control or elimination.

Project description:Cholera is both an endemic and epidemic disease in many low and middle-income countries (LMICs). Strategies for cholera control include improving water, sanitation, and hygiene; providing early and effective treatment; and deploying oral cholera vaccine (OCV). This last strategy is relatively new, and countries considering its introduction are interested in knowing the potential cost not only of the vaccine, but also the cost of introduction. This paper describes the costing of OCV introduction in LMICs using a publicly available Excel-based tool known as the CholTool. It includes estimates of delivery cost categories which cover not only the service delivery costs (e.g. vaccine procurement, handling, storage, and transport; vaccination administration, monitoring supervision, and field support), but also the programmatic costs associated with introducing a new vaccine (i.e. microplanning, communication and training materials development, sensitization/social mobilization, and personnel training) to ensure that a comprehensive estimate is provided with health payer perspective. CholTool takes the user through a structured sequence of interlinked modules containing input parameter cells (assumptions), decision cells (variable selections), and formulas (calculations) to produce customized cost estimates based on standardized methods. The tool provides both financial and economic cost estimates, to ensure that both costs are available for consideration. Four examples of applications of CholTool are presented in three countries- one in Ethiopia, two in Malawi and one in Nepal. The estimates of economic delivery cost per dose (including service delivery and programmatic costs) were (in USD 2016): $2.89 in Ethiopia, $3.04 in Malawi1, $3.35 in Malawi2 and $3.06 in Nepal. A cost projection conducted before the campaign using the tool and a retrospective costing using the tool in Nepal resulted in no significant difference between economic delivery costs per dose.

Project description:BackgroundDespite World Health Organization (WHO) prequalification of two safe and effective oral cholera vaccines (OCV), concerns about the acceptability, potential diversion of resources, cost and feasibility of implementing timely campaigns has discouraged their use. In 2012, the Ministry of Health of Guinea, with the support of Médecins Sans Frontières organized the first mass vaccination campaign using a two-dose OCV (Shanchol) as an additional control measure to respond to the on-going nationwide epidemic. Overall, 316,250 vaccines were delivered. Here, we present the results of vaccination coverage, acceptability and surveillance of adverse events.Methodology/principal findingsWe performed a cross-sectional cluster survey and implemented adverse event surveillance. The study population included individuals older than 12 months, eligible for vaccination, and residing in the areas targeted for vaccination (Forécariah and Boffa, Guinea). Data sources were household interviews with verification by vaccination card and notifications of adverse events from surveillance at vaccination posts and health centres. In total 5,248 people were included in the survey, 3,993 in Boffa and 1,255 in Forécariah. Overall, 89.4% [95%CI:86.4-91.8%] and 87.7% [95%CI:84.2-90.6%] were vaccinated during the first round and 79.8% [95%CI:75.6-83.4%] and 82.9% [95%CI:76.6-87.7%] during the second round in Boffa and Forécariah respectively. The two dose vaccine coverage (including card and oral reporting) was 75.8% [95%CI: 71.2-75.9%] in Boffa and 75.9% [95%CI: 69.8-80.9%] in Forécariah respectively. Vaccination coverage was higher in children. The main reason for non-vaccination was absence. No severe adverse events were notified.Conclusions/significanceThe well-accepted mass vaccination campaign reached high coverage in a remote area with a mobile population. Although OCV should not be foreseen as the long-term solution for global cholera control, they should be integrated as an additional tool into the response.

Dataset Information

The Impact of a One-Dose versus Two-Dose Oral Cholera Vaccine Regimen in Outbreak Settings: A Modeling Study.

Background

Methods and findings

Conclusions

Publications

The Impact of a One-Dose versus Two-Dose Oral Cholera Vaccine Regimen in Outbreak Settings: A Modeling Study.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets