Improving Accuracy of Influenza-Associated Hospitalization Rate Estimates.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Millman AJ
PROVIDER: S-EPMC4550134 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:Advances in artificial intelligence have inspired a paradigm shift in human neuroscience, yielding large-scale functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) datasets that provide high-resolution brain responses to thousands of naturalistic visual stimuli. Because such experiments necessarily involve brief stimulus durations and few repetitions of each stimulus, achieving sufficient signal-to-noise ratio can be a major challenge. We address this challenge by introducing GLMsingle, a scalable, user-friendly toolbox available in MATLAB and Python that enables accurate estimation of single-trial fMRI responses (glmsingle.org). Requiring only fMRI time-series data and a design matrix as inputs, GLMsingle integrates three techniques for improving the accuracy of trial-wise general linear model (GLM) beta estimates. First, for each voxel, a custom hemodynamic response function (HRF) is identified from a library of candidate functions. Second, cross-validation is used to derive a set of noise regressors from voxels unrelated to the experiment. Third, to improve the stability of beta estimates for closely spaced trials, betas are regularized on a voxel-wise basis using ridge regression. Applying GLMsingle to the Natural Scenes Dataset and BOLD5000, we find that GLMsingle substantially improves the reliability of beta estimates across visually-responsive cortex in all subjects. Comparable improvements in reliability are also observed in a smaller-scale auditory dataset from the StudyForrest experiment. These improvements translate into tangible benefits for higher-level analyses relevant to systems and cognitive neuroscience. We demonstrate that GLMsingle: (i) helps decorrelate response estimates between trials nearby in time; (ii) enhances representational similarity between subjects within and across datasets; and (iii) boosts one-versus-many decoding of visual stimuli. GLMsingle is a publicly available tool that can significantly improve the quality of past, present, and future neuroimaging datasets sampling brain activity across many experimental conditions.
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Project description:BackgroundThe impact of influenza on morbidity and hospitalization in the tropics and subtropics is poorly quantified. Uniquely, the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region has computerized hospital discharge diagnoses on 95% of total bed days, allowing disease burden for a well-defined population to be accurately assessed.Methods and findingsInfluenza-associated morbidity and hospitalization was assessed by Poisson regression models for weekly counts of hospitalizations in Hong Kong during 1996 to 2000, using proportions of positive influenza types A (H1N1 and H3N2) and B isolations in specimens sent for laboratory diagnosis as measures of influenza virus circulation. We adjusted for annual trend, seasonality, temperature, and relative humidity, as well as respiratory syncytial virus circulation. We found that influenza was significantly associated with hospitalization for acute respiratory disease (International Classification of Diseases version 9 codes [ICD9] 460-466 and 480-487) and its subcategory pneumonia and influenza (ICD9 480-487) for all age groups. The annual rates of excess hospitalization per 100,000 population for acute respiratory diseases for the age groups 0-14, 15-39, 40-64, 65-74, and 75+ were 163.3 (95% confidence interval [CI], 135-190), 6.0 (95% CI, 2.7-8.9), 14.9 (95% CI, 10.7-18.8), 83.8 (95% CI, 61.2-104.2), and 266 (95% CI, 198.7-330.2), respectively. Influenza was also associated with hospitalization for cerebrovascular disease (ICD9 430-438) for those aged over 75 y (55.4; 95% CI, 23.1-87.8); ischemic heart disease (ICD9 410-414) for the age group 40-64 y (5.3; 95% CI, 0.5-9.5) and over 75 y (56.4; 95% CI, 21.1-93.4); and diabetes mellitus (ICD9 250) for all age groups older than 40 y.ConclusionsInfluenza has a major impact on hospitalization due to cardio-respiratory diseases as well as on cerebrovascular disease, ischemic heart disease, and diabetes mellitus in the tropics and subtropics. Better utilization of influenza vaccine during annual epidemics in the tropics will enhance global vaccine production capacity and allow for better preparedness to meet the surge in demand that is inevitable in confronting a pandemic.
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Project description:The recommended method for measuring respiratory rate (RR) is counting breaths for 60 s using a timer. This method is not efficient in a busy clinical setting. There is an urgent need for a robust, low-cost method that can help front-line health care workers to measure RR quickly and accurately. Our aim was to develop a more efficient RR assessment method. RR was estimated by measuring the median time interval between breaths obtained from tapping on the touch screen of a mobile device. The estimation was continuously validated by measuring consistency (% deviation from the median) of each interval. Data from 30 subjects estimating RR from 10 standard videos with a mobile phone application were collected. A sensitivity analysis and an optimization experiment were performed to verify that a RR could be obtained in less than 60 s; that the accuracy improves when more taps are included into the calculation; and that accuracy improves when inconsistent taps are excluded. The sensitivity analysis showed that excluding inconsistent tapping and increasing the number of tap intervals improved the RR estimation. Efficiency (time to complete measurement) was significantly improved compared to traditional methods that require counting for 60 s. There was a trade-off between accuracy and efficiency. The most balanced optimization result provided a mean efficiency of 9.9 s and a normalized root mean square error of 5.6%, corresponding to 2.2 breaths/min at a respiratory rate of 40 breaths/min. The obtained 6-fold increase in mean efficiency combined with a clinically acceptable error makes this approach a viable solution for further clinical testing. The sensitivity analysis illustrating the trade-off between accuracy and efficiency will be a useful tool to define a target product profile for any novel RR estimation device.
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Project description:Route taken and distance travelled are important parameters for studies of animal locomotion. They are often measured using a collar equipped with GPS. Collar weight restrictions limit battery size, which leads to a compromise between collar operating life and GPS fix rate. In studies that rely on linear interpolation between intermittent GPS fixes, path tortuosity will often lead to inaccurate path and distance travelled estimates. Here, we investigate whether GPS-corrected dead reckoning can improve the accuracy of localization and distance travelled estimates while maximizing collar operating life. Custom-built tracking collars were deployed on nine freely exercising domestic dogs to collect high fix rate GPS data. Simulations were carried out to measure the extent to which combining accelerometer-based speed and magnetometer heading estimates (dead reckoning) with low fix rate GPS drift correction could improve the accuracy of path and distance travelled estimates. In our study, median 2-dimensional root-mean-squared (2D-RMS) position error was between 158 and 463 m (median path length 16.43 km) and distance travelled was underestimated by between 30% and 64% when a GPS position fix was taken every 5 min. Dead reckoning with GPS drift correction (1 GPS fix every 5 min) reduced 2D-RMS position error to between 15 and 38 m and distance travelled to between an underestimation of 2% and an overestimation of 5%. Achieving this accuracy from GPS alone would require approximately 12 fixes every minute and result in a battery life of approximately 11 days; dead reckoning reduces the number of fixes required, enabling a collar life of approximately 10 months. Our results are generally applicable to GPS-based tracking studies of quadrupedal animals and could be applied to studies of energetics, behavioral ecology, and locomotion. This low-cost approach overcomes the limitation of low fix rate GPS and enables the long-term deployment of lightweight GPS collars.
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Project description:BackgroundThe performance of previously published glomerular filtration rate (GFR) estimation equations degrades when directly used in Chinese population. We incorporated more independent variables and using complicated non-linear modeling technology (artificial neural network, ANN) to develop a more accurate GFR estimation model for Chinese population.MethodsThe enrolled participants came from the Third Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University, China from Jan 2012 to Jun 2016. Participants with age < 18, unstable kidney function, taking trimethoprim or cimetidine, or receiving dialysis were excluded. Among the finally enrolled 1952 participants, 1075 participants (55.07%) from Jan 2012 to Dec 2014 were assigned as the development data whereas 877 participants (44.93%) from Jan 2015 to Jun 2016 as the internal validation data. We in total developed 3 GFR estimation models: a 4-variable revised CKD-EPI (chronic kidney disease epidemiology collaboration) equation (standardized serum creatinine and cystatin C, age and gender), a 9-variable revised CKD-EPI equation (additional auxiliary variables: body mass index, blood urea nitrogen, albumin, uric acid and hemoglobin), and a 9-variable ANN model.ResultsCompared with the 4-variable equation, the 9-variable equation could not achieve superior performance in the internal validation data (mean of difference: 5.00 [3.82, 6.54] vs 4.67 [3.55, 5.90], P = 0.5; interquartile range (IQR) of difference: 18.91 [17.43, 20.48] vs 20.11 [18.46, 21.80], P = 0.05; P30: 76.6% [73.7%, 79.5%] vs 75.8% [72.9%, 78.6%], P = 0.4), but the 9-variable ANN model significantly improve bias and P30 accuracy (mean of difference: 2.77 [1.82, 4.10], P = 0.007; IQR: 19.33 [17.77, 21.17], P = 0.3; P30: 80.0% [77.4%, 82.7%], P < 0.001).ConclusionsIt is suggested that using complicated non-linear models like ANN could fully utilize the predictive ability of the independent variables, and then finally achieve a superior GFR estimation model.
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Project description:Reliable forecasts of influenza-associated hospitalizations during seasonal outbreaks can help health systems better prepare for patient surges. Within the USA, public health surveillance systems collect and distribute near real-time weekly hospitalization rates, a key observational metric that makes real-time forecast of this outcome possible. In this paper, we describe a method to forecast hospitalization rates using a population level transmission model in combination with a data assimilation technique. Using this method, we generated retrospective forecasts of hospitalization rates for five age groups and the overall population during five seasons in the USA and quantified forecast accuracy for both near-term and seasonal targets. Additionally, we describe methods to correct for under-reporting of hospitalization rates (backcast) and to estimate hospitalization rates from publicly available online search trends data (nowcast). Forecasts based on surveillance rates alone were reasonably accurate in predicting peak hospitalization rates (within ± 25% of the actual peak rate, three weeks before peak). The error in predicting rates one to four weeks ahead, remained constant for the duration of the seasons, even during periods of increased influenza incidence. An improvement in forecast quality across all age groups, seasons and targets was observed when backcasts and nowcasts supplemented surveillance data. These results suggest that the model-inference framework can provide reasonably accurate real-time forecasts of influenza hospitalizations; backcasts and nowcasts offer a way to improve system tolerance to observational errors.
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Project description:BACKGROUND:Influenza B is one of the major etiologies for acute respiratory infections (ARI) among children worldwide; however, its clinical-epidemiological information is limited. We aimed to investigate the hospitalization incidence and clinical-epidemiological characteristics of influenza B-associated paediatric ARIs in central Vietnam. METHODS:We collected clinical-epidemiological information and nasopharyngeal swabs from ARI children hospitalized at Khanh Hoa General Hospital, Nha Trang, Vietnam from February 2007 through June 2013. Nasopharyngeal samples were screened for 13 respiratory viruses using Multiplex-PCRs. Influenza B-confirmed cases were genotyped by Haemagglutinin gene sequencing. We analyzed the clinical-epidemiological characteristics of influenza B Lineages (Victoria/Yamagata) and WHO Groups. RESULTS:In the pre-A/H1N1pdm09 period, influenza B-associated ARI hospitalization incidence among children under five was low, ranging between 14.7 and 80.7 per 100 000 population. The incidence increased to between 51.4 and 330 in the post-A/H1N1pdm09. Influenza B ARI cases were slightly older with milder symptoms. Both Victoria and Yamagata lineages were detected before the A/H1N1pdm09 outbreak; however, Victoria lineage became predominant in 2010-2013 (84% Victoria vs 16% Yamagata). Victoria and Yamagata lineages did not differ in demographic and clinical characteristics. In Victoria lineage, Group1 ARI cases were clinically more severe compared to Group5, presenting a greater proportion of wheeze, tachypnea, and lower respiratory tract infection. CONCLUSIONS:The current results highlight the increased incidence of influenza B-related ARI hospitalization among children in central Vietnam in the post-A/H1N1pdm09 era. Furthermore, the difference in clinical severity between Victoria lineage Group1 and 5 implies the importance of influenza B genetic variation on clinical presentation.
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Project description:BackgroundA wide range of methods have been used for estimating influenza-associated deaths in temperate countries. Direct comparisons of estimates produced by using different models with US mortality data have not been published.ObjectiveCompare estimates of US influenza-associated deaths made by using four models and summarize strengths and weaknesses of each model.MethodsUS mortality data from the 1972-1973 through 2002-2003 respiratory seasons and World Health Organization influenza surveillance data were used to estimate influenza-associated respiratory and circulatory deaths. Four models were used: (i) rate-difference (using peri-season or summer-season baselines), (ii) Serfling least squares cyclical regression, (iii) Serfling-Poisson regression, (iv) and autoregressive integrated moving average models.ResultsAnnual estimates of influenza-associated deaths made using each model were similar and positively correlated, except for estimates from the summer-season rate-difference model, which were consistently higher. From the 1976/1977 through the 2002/2003 seasons the, the Poisson regression models estimated that an annual average of 25,470 [95% confidence interval (CI) 19,781-31,159] influenza-associated respiratory and circulatory deaths [9.9 deaths per 100,000 (95% CI 7.9-11.9)], while peri-season rate-difference models using a 15% threshold estimated an annual average of 22,454 (95% CI 16,189-28,719) deaths [8.6 deaths per 100,000 (95% CI 6.4-10.9)].ConclusionsEstimates of influenza-associated mortality were of similar magnitude. Poisson regression models permit the estimation of deaths associated with influenza A and B, but require robust viral surveillance data. By contrast, simple peri-season rate-difference models may prove useful for estimating mortality in countries with sparse viral surveillance data or complex influenza seasonality.
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Project description:BackgroundNational estimates of influenza burden may not reflect state-level influenza activity, and local surveillance may not capture the full burden of influenza.MethodsTo provide state-level information about influenza burden, we estimated excess pneumonia and influenza (P&I) and respiratory and circulatory (R&C) hospitalizations and deaths in Colorado from local hospital discharge records, death certificates, and influenza virus surveillance using negative binomial models.ResultsFrom July 2007 to June 2016, influenza was associated with an excess of 17 911 P&I hospitalizations (95%CI: 15 227, 20 354), 30 811 R&C hospitalizations (95%CI: 24 344, 37 176), 1,064 P&I deaths (95%CI: 757, 1298), and 3828 R&C deaths (95%CI: 2060, 5433). There was a large burden of influenza A(H1N1) among persons aged 0-64 years, with high median seasonal rates of excess hospitalization among persons aged 0-4 years. Persons aged ≥65 years experienced the largest numbers and highest median seasonal rates of excess hospitalization and death associated with influenza A (H3N2). The burden of influenza B was generally lower, with elevated median seasonal rates of excess hospitalization among persons aged 0-4 years and ≥65 years.ConclusionsThese findings complement existing influenza surveillance. Periodic state-level estimates of influenza disease burden may be useful for setting state public health priorities and planning prevention and control initiatives.
| S-EPMC7040963 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundEstimates of influenza-associated mortality are important for national and international decision making on public health priorities. Previous estimates of 250 000-500 000 annual influenza deaths are outdated. We updated the estimated number of global annual influenza-associated respiratory deaths using country-specific influenza-associated excess respiratory mortality estimates from 1999-2015.MethodsWe estimated country-specific influenza-associated respiratory excess mortality rates (EMR) for 33 countries using time series log-linear regression models with vital death records and influenza surveillance data. To extrapolate estimates to countries without data, we divided countries into three analytic divisions for three age groups (<65 years, 65-74 years, and ≥75 years) using WHO Global Health Estimate (GHE) respiratory infection mortality rates. We calculated mortality rate ratios (MRR) to account for differences in risk of influenza death across countries by comparing GHE respiratory infection mortality rates from countries without EMR estimates with those with estimates. To calculate death estimates for individual countries within each age-specific analytic division, we multiplied randomly selected mean annual EMRs by the country's MRR and population. Global 95% credible interval (CrI) estimates were obtained from the posterior distribution of the sum of country-specific estimates to represent the range of possible influenza-associated deaths in a season or year. We calculated influenza-associated deaths for children younger than 5 years for 92 countries with high rates of mortality due to respiratory infection using the same methods.FindingsEMR-contributing countries represented 57% of the global population. The estimated mean annual influenza-associated respiratory EMR ranged from 0·1 to 6·4 per 100 000 individuals for people younger than 65 years, 2·9 to 44·0 per 100 000 individuals for people aged between 65 and 74 years, and 17·9 to 223·5 per 100 000 for people older than 75 years. We estimated that 291 243-645 832 seasonal influenza-associated respiratory deaths (4·0-8·8 per 100 000 individuals) occur annually. The highest mortality rates were estimated in sub-Saharan Africa (2·8-16·5 per 100 000 individuals), southeast Asia (3·5-9·2 per 100 000 individuals), and among people aged 75 years or older (51·3-99·4 per 100 000 individuals). For 92 countries, we estimated that among children younger than 5 years, 9243-105 690 influenza-associated respiratory deaths occur annually.InterpretationThese global influenza-associated respiratory mortality estimates are higher than previously reported, suggesting that previous estimates might have underestimated disease burden. The contribution of non-respiratory causes of death to global influenza-associated mortality should be investigated.FundingNone.
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