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Predicting Survival with Good Neurological Outcome Within 24 Hours Following Out of Hospital Cardiac Arrest:The Application and Validation of a Novel Clinical Score.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Despite 50 years of research, prognostication post cardiac arrest traditionally occurs at 72 hours. We tested the accuracy of a novel bedside score within 24 hours of hospital admission, in predicting neurologically intact survival. METHODS:We studied 192 adults following non-traumatic out-of-hospital cardiac arrest. In a 50% random modeling sample, a model for survival to discharge with good neurological outcome was developed using univariate analysis and stepwise multivariate logistic regression for predictor selection. The diagnostic efficiency of this modeled score was assessed in the remaining 50% sample using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. RESULTS:In this study, 20% of patients survived to discharge with good neurological outcome. The final logistic regression model in the modeling sample retained three predictors: initial rhythm Ventricular Fibrillation, Return of Spontaneous Circulation ? 20 minutes from collapse, and Brainstem Reflex Score ? 3 within 24 hours. These variables were used to develop a three-point Out of Hospital Cardiac Arrest score. The area under the (ROC) curve was 0.84 [95% CI, 0.75-0.93] in the modeling sample and 0.92 [95% CI, 0.87-0.98] in the validation sample. A score ? 2 predicted good neurological outcome with a sensitivity of 79%, a specificity of 92%, and a negative predictive value of 93%. A score ?1 had a sensitivity of 100% and a negative predictive value of 100%; however, the specificity was only 55%. CONCLUSION:This study demonstrates that a score based on clinical and easily accessible variables within 24 hours can predict neurologically intact survival following cardiac arrest.

SUBMITTER: Albaeni A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4550201 | biostudies-literature | 2014

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Predicting Survival with Good Neurological Outcome Within 24 Hours Following Out of Hospital Cardiac Arrest:The Application and Validation of a Novel Clinical Score.

Albaeni Aiham A Eid Shaker M SM Vaidya Dhananjay D Chandra-Strobos Nisha N

Journal of neurology & translational neuroscience 20140101 1

<h4>Background</h4>Despite 50 years of research, prognostication post cardiac arrest traditionally occurs at 72 hours. We tested the accuracy of a novel bedside score within 24 hours of hospital admission, in predicting neurologically intact survival.<h4>Methods</h4>We studied 192 adults following non-traumatic out-of-hospital cardiac arrest. In a 50% random modeling sample, a model for survival to discharge with good neurological outcome was developed using univariate analysis and stepwise mult ...[more]

PMID: 26322336

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Project description:ImportanceInternational resuscitation guidelines recommend targeted temperature management (TTM) at 33°C to 36°C in unconscious patients with out-of-hospital cardiac arrest for at least 24 hours, but the optimal duration of TTM is uncertain.ObjectiveTo determine whether TTM at 33°C for 48 hours results in better neurologic outcomes compared with currently recommended, standard, 24-hour TTM.Design, setting, and participantsThis was an international, investigator-initiated, blinded-outcome-assessor, parallel, pragmatic, multicenter, randomized clinical superiority trial in 10 intensive care units (ICUs) at 10 university hospitals in 6 European countries. Three hundred fifty-five adult, unconscious patients with out-of-hospital cardiac arrest were enrolled from February 16, 2013, to June 1, 2016, with final follow-up on December 27, 2016.InterventionsPatients were randomized to TTM (33 ± 1°C) for 48 hours (n = 176) or 24 hours (n = 179), followed by gradual rewarming of 0.5°C per hour until reaching 37°C.Main outcomes and measuresThe primary outcome was 6-month neurologic outcome, with a Cerebral Performance Categories (CPC) score of 1 or 2 used to define favorable outcome. Secondary outcomes included 6-month mortality, including time to death, the occurrence of adverse events, and intensive care unit resource use.ResultsIn 355 patients who were randomized (mean age, 60 years; 295 [83%] men), 351 (99%) completed the trial. Of these patients, 69% (120/175) in the 48-hour group had a favorable outcome at 6 months compared with 64% (112/176) in the 24-hour group (difference, 4.9%; 95% CI, -5% to 14.8%; relative risk [RR], 1.08; 95% CI, 0.93-1.25; P = .33). Six-month mortality was 27% (48/175) in the 48-hour group and 34% (60/177) in the 24-hour group (difference, -6.5%; 95% CI, -16.1% to 3.1%; RR, 0.81; 95% CI, 0.59-1.11; P = .19). There was no significant difference in the time to mortality between the 48-hour group and the 24-hour group (hazard ratio, 0.79; 95% CI, 0.54-1.15; P = .22). Adverse events were more common in the 48-hour group (97%) than in the 24-hour group (91%) (difference, 5.6%; 95% CI, 0.6%-10.6%; RR, 1.06; 95% CI, 1.01-1.12; P = .04). The median length of intensive care unit stay (151 vs 117 hours; P < .001), but not hospital stay (11 vs 12 days; P = .50), was longer in the 48-hour group than in the 24-hour group.Conclusions and relevanceIn unconscious survivors from out-of-hospital cardiac arrest admitted to the ICU, targeted temperature management at 33°C for 48 hours did not significantly improve 6-month neurologic outcome compared with targeted temperature management at 33°C for 24 hours. However, the study may have had limited power to detect clinically important differences, and further research may be warranted.Trial registrationclinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT01689077.

Project description:BACKGROUND:Acute kidney injury (AKI) after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) is a well-known predictor for mortality. However, the natural course of AKI including recovery rate after OHCA is uncertain. This study investigated the clinical course of AKI after OHCA and determined whether recovery from AKI impacted the outcomes of OHCA. METHODS:This retrospective multicentre cohort study included adult OHCA patients treated with targeted temperature management (TTM) between January 2016 and December 2017. AKI was diagnosed using the Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes criteria. The primary outcome was the recovery rate after AKI and its association with survival and good neurological outcome at discharge. RESULTS:A total of 3697 OHCA patients from six hospitals were screened and 275 were finally included. AKI developed in 175/275 (64%) patients and 69/175 (39%) patients recovered from AKI. In most cases, AKI developed within three days of return of spontaneous circulation [155/175 (89%), median time to AKI development 1 (1-2) day] and patients recovered within seven days of return of spontaneous circulation [59/69 (86%), median time to AKI recovery 3 (2-7) days]. Duration of AKI was significantly longer in the AKI non-recovery group than in the AKI recovery group [5 (2-9) vs. 1 (1-5) days; P?<?0.001]. Most patients were diagnosed with AKI stage 1 initially [120/175 (69%)]. However, the number of stage 3 AKI patients increased from 30/175 (17%) to 77/175 (44%) after the initial diagnosis of AKI. The rate of survival discharge was significantly higher in the AKI recovery group than in the AKI non-recovery group [45/69 (65%) vs. 17/106 (16%); P?<?0.001]. Recovery from AKI was a potent predictor of survival and good neurological outcome at discharge in the multivariate analysis (adjusted odds ratio, 8.308; 95% confidence interval, 3.120-22.123; P?<?0.001 and adjusted odds ratio, 36.822; 95% confidence interval, 4.097-330.926; P?=?0.001). CONCLUSIONS:In our cohort of adult OHCA patients treated with TTM (n?=?275), the recovery rate from AKI after OHCA was 39%, and recovery from AKI was a potent predictor of survival and good neurological outcome at discharge.

Project description:BackgroundPrognostication of neurological outcome in patients who remain comatose after cardiac arrest resuscitation is complex. Clinical variables, as well as biomarkers of brain injury, cardiac injury, and systemic inflammation, all yield some prognostic value. We hypothesised that cumulative information obtained during the first three days of intensive care could produce a reliable model for predicting neurological outcome following out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) using artificial neural network (ANN) with and without biomarkers.MethodsWe performed a post hoc analysis of 932 patients from the Target Temperature Management trial. We focused on comatose patients at 24, 48, and 72 h post-cardiac arrest and excluded patients who were awake or deceased at these time points. 80% of the patients were allocated for model development (training set) and 20% for internal validation (test set). To investigate the prognostic potential of different levels of biomarkers (clinically available and research-grade), patients' background information, and intensive care observation and treatment, we created three models for each time point: (1) clinical variables, (2) adding clinically accessible biomarkers, e.g., neuron-specific enolase (NSE) and (3) adding research-grade biomarkers, e.g., neurofilament light (NFL). Patient outcome was the dichotomised Cerebral Performance Category (CPC) at six months; a good outcome was defined as CPC 1-2 whilst a poor outcome was defined as CPC 3-5. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) was calculated for all test sets.ResultsAUROC remained below 90% when using only clinical variables throughout the first three days in the ICU. Adding clinically accessible biomarkers such as NSE, AUROC increased from 82 to 94% (p < 0.01). The prognostic accuracy remained excellent from day 1 to day 3 with an AUROC at approximately 95% when adding research-grade biomarkers. The models which included NSE after 72 h and NFL on any of the three days had a low risk of false-positive predictions while retaining a low number of false-negative predictions.ConclusionsIn this exploratory study, ANNs provided good to excellent prognostic accuracy in predicting neurological outcome in comatose patients post OHCA. The models which included NSE after 72 h and NFL on all days showed promising prognostic performance.

Project description:Fibroblast growth factor (FGF) 21 is a marker associated with mitochondrial and cellular stress. Cardiac arrest causes mitochondrial stress, and we tested if FGF 21 would reflect the severity of hypoxia-reperfusion injury after cardiac arrest. We measured serum concentrations of FGF 21 in 112 patients on ICU admission and 24, 48 and 72 h after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest with shockable initial rhythm included in the COMACARE study (NCT02698917). All patients received targeted temperature management for 24 h. We defined 6-month cerebral performance category 1-2 as good and 3-5 as poor neurological outcome. We used samples from 40 non-critically ill emergency room patients as controls. We assessed group differences with the Mann Whitney U test and temporal differences with linear modeling with restricted maximum likelihood estimation. We used multivariate logistic regression to assess the independent predictive value of FGF 21 concentration for neurologic outcome. The median (inter-quartile range, IQR) FGF 21 concentration was 0.25 (0.094-0.91) ng/ml in controls, 0.79 (0.37-1.6) ng/ml in patients at ICU admission (P < 0.001 compared to controls) and peaked at 48 h [1.2 (0.46-2.5) ng/ml]. We found no association between arterial blood oxygen partial pressure and FGF 21 concentrations. We observed with linear modeling an effect of sample timepoint (F 5.6, P < 0.01), poor neurological outcome (F 6.1, P = 0.01), and their interaction (F 3.0, P = 0.03), on FGF 21 concentration. In multivariate logistic regression analysis, adjusting for relevant clinical covariates, higher average FGF 21 concentration during the first 72 h was independently associated with poor neurological outcome (odds ratio 1.60, 95% confidence interval 1.10-2.32). We conclude that post cardiac arrest patients experience cellular and mitochondrial stress, reflected as a systemic FGF 21 response. This response is higher with a more severe hypoxic injury but it is not exacerbated by hyperoxia.

Project description:BACKGROUND:The prognosis in refractory out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) with ongoing cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) at hospital arrival is often considered dismal. The use of extracorporeal cardiopulmonary resuscitation (eCPR) for perfusion enhancement during resuscitation has shown variable results. We aimed to investigate outcome in refractory OHCA patients managed conservatively without use of eCPR. METHODS:We included consecutive OHCA patients with refractory arrest or prehospital return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC) in the Copenhagen area in 2002-2011. RESULTS:A total of 3992 OHCA patients with resuscitation attempts were included; in 2599, treatment was terminated prehospital, and 1393 (35%) were brought to the hospital either with ROSC (n?=?1285, 92%) or with refractory OHCA (n?=?108, 8%). Of patients brought in with refractory OHCA, 56 (52%) achieved ROSC in the emergency department. There were no differences between patients with refractory OHCA or prehospital ROSC with regard to age, sex, comorbidities, or etiology of OHCA. Time to emergency medical services (EMS) arrival was similar, whereas time to ROSC (when ROSC was achieved) was longer in refractory OHCA patients (EMS, 6 (5-9] vs. 7 [5-10] min, p?=?0.8; ROSC, 15 [9-22] vs. 27 [20-41] min, p?<?0.001). Independent factors associated with transport with refractory OHCA instead of prehospital termination of therapy were OHCA in public (OR, 3.6 [95% CI, 2.2-5.8]; p?<?0.001), witnessed OHCA (OR, 3.7 [2.0-7.1]; p?<?0.001), shockable rhythm (OR, 3.0 [1.9-4.7]; p?<?0.001), younger age (OR, 1.2 [1.1-1.2]; p?<?0.001), and later calendar year (OR, 1.4 [1.2-1.6]; p?<?0.001). Thirty-day survival was 20% in patients with refractory OHCA compared with 42% in patients with prehospital ROSC (p?<?0.001). Four of 28 refractory OHCA patients with duration of resuscitation >?60 min achieved ROSC. No difference in favorable neurological outcome in patients surviving to discharge was found (prehospital ROSC 84% vs. refractory OHCA 86%; p?=?0.7). CONCLUSIONS:Survival after refractory OHCA with ongoing CPR at hospital arrival was significantly lower than among patients with prehospital ROSC. Despite a lower survival, the majority of survivors with both refractory OHCA and prehospital ROSC were discharged with a similar degree of favorable neurological outcome, indicating that continued efforts in spite of refractory OHCA are not in vain and may still lead to favorable outcome even without eCPR.

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Predicting Survival with Good Neurological Outcome Within 24 Hours Following Out of Hospital Cardiac Arrest:The Application and Validation of a Novel Clinical Score.

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Predicting Survival with Good Neurological Outcome Within 24 Hours Following Out of Hospital Cardiac Arrest:The Application and Validation of a Novel Clinical Score.

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