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Was the Risk from Nursing-Home Evacuation after the Fukushima Accident Higher than the Radiation Risk?

ABSTRACT: After the 2011 accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, nursing-home residents and staff were evacuated voluntarily from damaged areas to avoid radiation exposure. Unfortunately, the evacuation resulted in increased mortalities among nursing home residents. We assessed the risk trade-off between evacuation and radiation for 191 residents and 184 staff at three nursing homes by using the same detriment indicator, namely loss of life expectancy (LLE), under four scenarios, i.e. "rapid evacuation (in accordance with the actual situation; i.e. evacuation on 22 March)," "deliberate evacuation (i.e. evacuation on 20 June)," "20-mSv exposure," and "100-mSv exposure." The LLE from evacuation-related mortality among nursing home residents was assessed with survival probability data from nursing homes in the city of Minamisoma and the city of Soma. The LLE from radiation mortality was calculated from the estimated age-specific mortality rates from leukemia and all solid cancers based on the additional effective doses and the survival probabilities. The total LLE of residents due to evacuation-related risks in rapid evacuation was 11,000 persons-d-much higher than the total LLEs of residents and staff due to radiation in the other scenarios (27, 1100, and 5800 persons-d for deliberate evacuation, 20 mSv-exposure, and 100 mSv-exposure, respectively). The latitude for reducing evacuation risks among nursing home residents is surprisingly large. Evacuation regulation and planning should therefore be well balanced with the trade-offs against radiation risks. This is the first quantitative assessment of the risk trade-off between radiation exposure and evacuation after a nuclear power plant accident.

SUBMITTER: Murakami M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4567272 | biostudies-literature | 2015

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Was the Risk from Nursing-Home Evacuation after the Fukushima Accident Higher than the Radiation Risk?

Murakami Michio M Ono Kyoko K Tsubokura Masaharu M Nomura Shuhei S Oikawa Tomoyoshi T Oka Tosihiro T Kami Masahiro M Oki Taikan T

PloS one 20150911 9

After the 2011 accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, nursing-home residents and staff were evacuated voluntarily from damaged areas to avoid radiation exposure. Unfortunately, the evacuation resulted in increased mortalities among nursing home residents. We assessed the risk trade-off between evacuation and radiation for 191 residents and 184 staff at three nursing homes by using the same detriment indicator, namely loss of life expectancy (LLE), under four scenarios, i.e. "rapi ...[more]

PMID: 26359666

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Project description:BackgroundFollowing the Great East Japan Earthquake on March 11, 2011, the nuclear disaster at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant has continued to affect the mental health status of residents in the evacuation zone. To examine the mental health status of evacuee after the nuclear accident, we conducted the Mental Health and Lifestyle Survey as part of the ongoing Fukushima Health Management Survey.MethodsWe measured mental health status using the Kessler 6-item psychological distress scale (K6) in a total of 73,569 (response rate: 40.7%) evacuees aged 15 and over who lived in the evacuation zone in Fukushima Prefecture. We then dichotomized responders using a 12/13 cutoff on the K6, and compared the proportion of K6 scores ≥13 and ≤12 in each risk factor including demographic information, socioeconomic variables, and disaster-related variables. We also performed bivariate analyses between mental health status and possible risk factors using the chi-square test. Furthermore, we performed multivariate regression analysis using modified Poisson regression models.ResultsThe median K6 score was 5 (interquartile range: 1-10). The number of psychological distress was 8,717 (14.6%). We found that significant differences in the prevalence of psychological distress by almost all survey items, including disaster-related risk factors, most of which were also associated with increased Prevalence ratios (PRs). Additionally, we found that psychological distress in each evacuation zone was significantly positively associated with the radiation levels in their environment (r = 0.768, p = 0.002).ConclusionThe earthquake, tsunami and subsequent nuclear accident likely caused severe psychological distress among residents in the evacuation zone in Fukushima Prefecture. The close association between psychological distress and the radiation levels shows that the nuclear accident seriously influenced the mental health of the residents, which might be exacerbated by increased risk perception. To provide prompt and appropriate support, continued psychosocial intervention for evacuees is strongly recommended.

Project description:Background: As a result of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident, many residents evacuated and were exposed to changes in their living environment and socioeconomic status, and to persistent stressors. Past studies have suggested the potential for these circumstances to contribute to long-term changes to population health.Objective: The objective of this study was to gain a better understanding of long-term health effects of evacuation, by evaluating the risk of non-communicable diseases among evacuees from Minamisoma City (one of the closest municipalities to the power plant) until 2017.Methods: The study evaluated data from annual health check-ups for residents aged 40-74 years covered by National Health Insurance (who are largely self-employed) from 2010 to 2017 administered by Minamisoma City. Diabetes, hyperlipidemia, and hypertension were defined from the results of blood sampling. Annual changes in age-adjusted prevalence were estimated by evacuation scenario. We also performed an inverse-probability weighting (IPW) analysis to adjust for baseline covariates in 2010 and estimated the differences in the risk of diabetes, hyperlipidemia, and hypertension by evacuation scenario as of the 2017 health check-up in reference to the no-evacuation group.Results: A total of 1,837 individuals were considered in this study. Regardless of evacuation scenario, there was statistical evidence suggesting an upward and a downward trend in diabetes and hypertension from 2010 to 2017, respectively, while hyperlipidemia showed no remarkable change. IPW analyses demonstrated that disease risks in 2017 did not differ significantly among people with different evacuation scenarios.Conclusions: Region-specific factors played an important role in the health effects of the evacuation. Our findings have important implications for the need of an assessment of the health effects of evacuations in more localized manner. Further research in this area will strengthen the communities' preparedness for future disasters that require mass evacuation.

Dataset Information

Was the Risk from Nursing-Home Evacuation after the Fukushima Accident Higher than the Radiation Risk?

Publications

Was the Risk from Nursing-Home Evacuation after the Fukushima Accident Higher than the Radiation Risk?

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