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Adaptation pathways of global wheat production: Importance of strategic adaptation to climate change.

ABSTRACT: Agricultural adaptation is necessary to reduce the negative impacts of climate change on crop yields and to maintain food production. However, few studies have assessed the course of adaptation along with the progress of climate change in each of the current major food producing countries. Adaptation pathways, which describe the temporal sequences of adaptations, are helpful for illustrating the timing and intensity of the adaptation required. Here we present adaptation pathways in the current major wheat-producing countries, based on sequential introduction of the minimum adaptation measures necessary to maintain current wheat yields through the 21st century. We considered two adaptation options: (i) expanding irrigation infrastructure; and (ii) switching crop varieties and developing new heat-tolerant varieties. We find that the adaptation pathways differ markedly among the countries. The adaptation pathways are sensitive to both the climate model uncertainty and natural variability of the climate system, and the degree of sensitivity differs among countries. Finally, the negative impacts of climate change could be moderated by implementing adaptations steadily according to forecasts of the necessary future adaptations, as compared to missing the appropriate timing to implement adaptations.

SUBMITTER: Tanaka A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4571615 | biostudies-literature | 2015 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Adaptation pathways of global wheat production: Importance of strategic adaptation to climate change.

Tanaka Akemi A Takahashi Kiyoshi K Masutomi Yuji Y Hanasaki Naota N Hijioka Yasuaki Y Shiogama Hideo H Yamanaka Yasuhiro Y

Scientific reports 20150916

Agricultural adaptation is necessary to reduce the negative impacts of climate change on crop yields and to maintain food production. However, few studies have assessed the course of adaptation along with the progress of climate change in each of the current major food producing countries. Adaptation pathways, which describe the temporal sequences of adaptations, are helpful for illustrating the timing and intensity of the adaptation required. Here we present adaptation pathways in the current m ...[more]

PMID: 26373877

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Project description:In many areas of the world, maintaining grapevine production will require adaptation to climate change. While rigorous evaluations of adaptation strategies provide decision makers with valuable insights, those that are published often overlook major constraints, ignore local adaptive capacity, and suffer from a compartmentalization of disciplines and scales. The objective of our study was to identify current knowledge of evaluation methods and their limitations, reported in the literature. We reviewed 111 papers that evaluate adaptation strategies in the main vineyards worldwide. Evaluation approaches are analyzed through key features (e.g., climate data sources, methodology, evaluation criteria) to discuss their ability to address climate change issues, and to identify promising outcomes for climate change adaptations. We highlight the fact that combining adaptation levers in the short and long term (location, vine training, irrigation, soil, and canopy management, etc.) enables local compromises to be reached between future water availability and grapevine productivity. The main findings of the paper are three-fold: (1) the evaluation of a combination of adaptation strategies provides better solutions for adapting to climate change; (2) multi-scale studies allow local constraints and opportunities to be considered; and (3) only a small number of studies have developed multi-scale and multi-lever approaches to quantify feasibility and effectiveness of adaptation. In addition, we found that climate data sources were not systematically clearly presented, and that climate uncertainty was hardly accounted for. Moreover, only a small number of studies have assessed the economic impacts of adaptation, especially at farm scale. We conclude that the development of methodologies to evaluate adaptation strategies, considering both complementary adaptations and scales, is essential if relevant information is to be provided to the decision-makers of the wine industry.

Dataset Information

Adaptation pathways of global wheat production: Importance of strategic adaptation to climate change.

Publications

Adaptation pathways of global wheat production: Importance of strategic adaptation to climate change.

Similar Datasets

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