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A Data-Driven Simulation of HIV Spread Among Young Men Who Have Sex With Men: Role of Age and Race Mixing and STIs.

ABSTRACT: OBJECTIVE:Young men who have sex with men (YMSM) in the United States have a high HIV incidence with substantial racial disparities that are poorly understood. We use a data-driven simulation model to understand the impact of network-level mechanisms and sexually transmitted infections on the spread of HIV among YMSM. METHODS:We designed and parameterized a stochastic agent-based network simulation model using results of a longitudinal cohort study of YMSM in Chicago. Within this model, YMSM formed and dissolved partnerships over time, and partnership types were stratified by length of partnership, sex, and age of the partner. In each partnership, HIV, gonorrhea, and chlamydia could be transmitted. Counterfactual scenarios were run to examine drivers of HIV. RESULTS:Over a 15-year simulation, the HIV epidemic among YMSM continued to rise, with Latino/white YMSM facing a steeper increase in the HIV burden compared with black YMSM. YMSM in partnerships with older MSM, in particular black YMSM with older black MSM, were at highest risk for HIV, and 1 infection prevented with an older partner would prevent 0.8 additional infections among YMSM. Additionally, racial disparities in HIV were driven by differences in the HIV prevalence of YMSM partners. Finally, of all HIV infections among YMSM, 14.6% were attributable to NG and CT infections. CONCLUSION:Network-level mechanisms and sexually transmitted infections play a significant role in the spread of HIV and in racial disparities among YMSM. HIV prevention efforts should target YMSM across race, and interventions focusing on YMSM partnerships with older MSM might be highly effective.

SUBMITTER: Beck EC

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4573360 | biostudies-literature | 2015 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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A Data-Driven Simulation of HIV Spread Among Young Men Who Have Sex With Men: Role of Age and Race Mixing and STIs.

Beck Ekkehard C EC Birkett Michelle M Armbruster Benjamin B Mustanski Brian B

Journal of acquired immune deficiency syndromes (1999) 20151001 2

<h4>Objective</h4>Young men who have sex with men (YMSM) in the United States have a high HIV incidence with substantial racial disparities that are poorly understood. We use a data-driven simulation model to understand the impact of network-level mechanisms and sexually transmitted infections on the spread of HIV among YMSM.<h4>Methods</h4>We designed and parameterized a stochastic agent-based network simulation model using results of a longitudinal cohort study of YMSM in Chicago. Within this ...[more]

PMID: 26102448

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Project description:BackgroundHIV status disclosure is an important decision with barriers specific to young men who have sex with men (YMSM), who have the highest rates of new HIV infections in the United States. Behavioral and social determinants of the difficulty to disclose can include fear of rejection, stigma, loss of financial stability, and lack of communication skills. Once able to disclose, a person may have increased access to social support and improved informed risk reduction conversations and medication adherence. Despite the known challenges and advantages of disclosure, there are few effective tools supporting this behavior.ObjectiveTo address this gap in disclosure interventions, the Tough Talks (TT) app, an mHealth intervention using artificial intelligence (AI)-facilitated role-playing scenarios, was developed for YMSM. This paper reports stages of development of the integrated app and results of the usability testing.MethodsBuilding on the successful development and testing of a stand-alone interactive dialogue feature in phases 1-3, we conducted additional formative research to further refine and enhance the disclosure scenarios and develop and situate them within the context of a comprehensive intervention app to support disclosure. We assessed the new iteration for acceptability and relevance in a usability study with 8 YMSM with HIV. Participants completed a presurvey, app modules, and a semistructured qualitative interview.ResultsTT content and activities were based on social cognitive theory and disclosure process model framework and expanded to a 4-module curriculum. The AI-facilitated scenarios used dialogue from an utterance database developed using language crowdsourced through a comic book contest. In usability testing, YMSM reported high satisfaction with TT, with 98% (31/33) of activities receiving positive ratings. Participants found the AI-facilitated scenarios and activities to be representative and relevant to their lived experiences, although they noted difficulty having nuanced disclosure conversations with the AI.ConclusionsTT was an engaging and practical intervention for self-disclosure among YMSM with HIV. Facilitating informed disclosure decisions has the potential to impact engagement in sexual risk behaviors and HIV care. More information is needed about the ideal environment, technical assistance, and clinical support for an mHealth disclosure intervention. TT is being tested as a scalable intervention in a multisite randomized controlled trial to address outstanding questions on accessibility and effect on viral suppression.Trial registrationClinicalTrials.gov NCT03414372; https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT03414372.

Project description:IntroductionIn order to determine the impact of HIV prevention and care programs, it is essential to look at both HIV incidence and prevalence estimates and trends over time. We estimated the HIV incidence and prevalence and assessed the trend using data from three cross-sectional surveys of men who have sex with men (MSM) in two cities in Georgia.MethodsUsing respondent-driven sampling strategy, a total of 796 eligible MSM (18 years or older men with self-reported oral or anal sex with another man in past 12 months) were recruited in Tbilisi in 2010, 2012 and 2015 and 115 in Batumi 2015 into behavioral surveys and HIV testing. To estimate the HIV incidence, we divided the number MSM tested positive for HIV to the time at risk. We calculated the time at risk as years since age at first anal intercourse to the age at last HIV-negative test or the age at first HIV-positive test, accounted for the interval censorship. We calculated the respondent-driven sampling adjusted estimates for HIV prevalence and assessed the trend in Tbilisi by Chi2 test for trend. For HIV incidence rate, we used Kaplan Meier method to estimate the rates and assessed the subgroup differences by log-rank test.ResultsThe HIV prevalence was 14.9% in Batumi in 2015; it significantly increased in Tbilisi from 6.2% in 2010 to 14.1% in 2012, and to 19.6% in 2015 (p-value for trend < 0.001). Likewise, the HIV incidence rate in Tbilisi significantly increased form 0.45 per 100 person-years (PY) in 2010 to 0.98 per 100 PY in 2012 (p-value 0.01), and to 1.63 per 100 PY in 2015 (p-value < 0.001). HIV incidence rate was 1.37 per 100 PY in Batumi in 2015. In 2015, young MSM (Tbilisi: 3.71, Batumi: 3.92 per 100 PY, p-value< 0.008), single MSM (Tbilisi: 1.99, per 100 PY, p-value 0.03) and less educated MSM (Batumi: 1.86 per 100 PY, p-value 0.03) had higher HIV incidence than other MSM.ConclusionOur findings suggest the continuous transmission of HIV among MSM in Tbilisi and a high prevalence of HIV among MSM in Batumi and the critical need for scaling up the coverage and accessibility of combination prevention packages including rapid HIV diagnosis and treatment.

Dataset Information

A Data-Driven Simulation of HIV Spread Among Young Men Who Have Sex With Men: Role of Age and Race Mixing and STIs.

Publications

A Data-Driven Simulation of HIV Spread Among Young Men Who Have Sex With Men: Role of Age and Race Mixing and STIs.

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