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Mapping influenza transmission in the ferret model to transmission in humans.

ABSTRACT: The controversy surrounding 'gain-of-function' experiments on high-consequence avian influenza viruses has highlighted the role of ferret transmission experiments in studying the transmission potential of novel influenza strains. However, the mapping between influenza transmission in ferrets and in humans is unsubstantiated. We address this gap by compiling and analyzing 240 estimates of influenza transmission in ferrets and humans. We demonstrate that estimates of ferret secondary attack rate (SAR) explain 66% of the variation in human SAR estimates at the subtype level. Further analysis shows that ferret transmission experiments have potential to identify influenza viruses of concern for epidemic spread in humans, though small sample sizes and biological uncertainties prevent definitive classification of human transmissibility. Thus, ferret transmission experiments provide valid predictions of pandemic potential of novel influenza strains, though results should continue to be corroborated by targeted virological and epidemiological research.

SUBMITTER: Buhnerkempe MG

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4586390 | biostudies-literature | 2015 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Mapping influenza transmission in the ferret model to transmission in humans.

Buhnerkempe Michael G MG Gostic Katelyn K Park Miran M Ahsan Prianna P Belser Jessica A JA Lloyd-Smith James O JO

eLife 20150902

The controversy surrounding 'gain-of-function' experiments on high-consequence avian influenza viruses has highlighted the role of ferret transmission experiments in studying the transmission potential of novel influenza strains. However, the mapping between influenza transmission in ferrets and in humans is unsubstantiated. We address this gap by compiling and analyzing 240 estimates of influenza transmission in ferrets and humans. We demonstrate that estimates of ferret secondary attack rate ( ...[more]

PMID: 26329460

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Project description:The development of influenza candidate vaccine viruses (CVVs) for pre-pandemic vaccine production represents a critical step in pandemic preparedness. The multiple subtypes and clades of avian or swine origin influenza viruses circulating world-wide at any one time necessitates the continuous generation of CVVs to provide an advanced starting point should a novel zoonotic virus cross the species barrier and cause a pandemic. Furthermore, the evolution and diversity of novel influenza viruses that cause zoonotic infections requires ongoing monitoring and surveillance, and, when a lack of antigenic match between circulating viruses and available CVVs is identified, the production of new CVVs. Pandemic guidelines developed by the WHO Global Influenza Program govern the design and preparation of reverse genetics-derived CVVs, which must undergo numerous safety and quality tests prior to human use. Confirmation of reassortant CVV attenuation of virulence in ferrets relative to wild-type virus represents one of these critical steps, yet there is a paucity of information available regarding the relative degree of attenuation achieved by WHO-recommended CVVs developed against novel viruses with pandemic potential. To better understand the degree of CVV attenuation in the ferret model, we examined the relative virulence of six A/Puerto Rico/8/1934-based CVVs encompassing five different influenza A subtypes (H2N3, H5N1, H5N2, H5N8, and H7N9) compared with the respective wild-type virus in ferrets. Despite varied virulence of wild-type viruses in the ferret, all CVVs examined showed reductions in morbidity and viral shedding in upper respiratory tract tissues. Furthermore, unlike the wild-type counterparts, none of the CVVs spread to extrapulmonary tissues during the acute phase of infection. While the magnitude of virus attenuation varied between virus subtypes, collectively we show the reliable and reproducible attenuation of CVVs that have the A/Puerto Rico/9/1934 backbone in a mammalian model.

Project description:Influenza A(H1) viruses circulating in swine represent an emerging virus threat, as zoonotic infections occur sporadically following exposure to swine. A fatal infection caused by an H1N1 variant (H1N1v) virus was detected in a patient with reported exposure to swine and who presented with pneumonia, respiratory failure, and cardiac arrest. To understand the genetic and phenotypic characteristics of the virus, genome sequence analysis, antigenic characterization, and ferret pathogenesis and transmissibility experiments were performed. Antigenic analysis of the virus isolated from the fatal case, A/Ohio/09/2015, demonstrated significant antigenic drift away from the classical swine H1N1 variant viruses and H1N1 pandemic 2009 viruses. A substitution in the H1 hemagglutinin (G155E) was identified that likely impacted antigenicity, and reverse genetics was employed to understand the molecular mechanism of antibody escape. Reversion of the substitution to 155G, in a reverse genetics A/Ohio/09/2015 virus, showed that this residue was central to the loss of hemagglutination inhibition by ferret antisera raised against a prototypical H1N1 pandemic 2009 virus (A/California/07/2009), as well as gamma lineage classical swine H1N1 viruses, demonstrating the importance of this residue for antibody recognition of this H1 lineage. When analyzed in the ferret model, A/Ohio/09/2015 and another H1N1v virus, A/Iowa/39/2015, as well as A/California/07/2009, replicated efficiently in the respiratory tract of ferrets. The two H1N1v viruses transmitted efficiently among cohoused ferrets, but respiratory droplet transmission studies showed that A/California/07/2009 transmitted through the air more efficiently. Preexisting immunity to A/California/07/2009 did not fully protect ferrets from challenge with A/Ohio/09/2015.IMPORTANCE Human infections with classical swine influenza A(H1N1) viruses that circulate in pigs continue to occur in the United States following exposure to swine. To understand the genetic and virologic characteristics of a virus (A/Ohio/09/2015) associated with a fatal infection and a virus associated with a nonfatal infection (A/Iowa/39/2015), we performed genome sequence analysis, antigenic testing, and pathogenicity and transmission studies in a ferret model. Reverse genetics was employed to identify a single antigenic site substitution (HA G155E) responsible for antigenic variation of A/Ohio/09/2015 compared to related classical swine influenza A(H1N1) viruses. Ferrets with preexisting immunity to the pandemic A(H1N1) virus were challenged with A/Ohio/09/2015, demonstrating decreased protection. These data illustrate the potential for currently circulating swine influenza viruses to infect and cause illness in humans with preexisting immunity to H1N1 pandemic 2009 viruses and a need for ongoing risk assessment and development of candidate vaccine viruses for improved pandemic preparedness.

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Mapping influenza transmission in the ferret model to transmission in humans.

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Mapping influenza transmission in the ferret model to transmission in humans.

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