Dataset Information

The Long-Run Socio-Economic Consequences of a Large Disaster: The 1995 Earthquake in Kobe.

ABSTRACT: We quantify the 'permanent' socio-economic impacts of the Great Hanshin-Awaji (Kobe) earthquake in 1995 by employing a large-scale panel dataset of 1,719 cities, towns, and wards from Japan over three decades. In order to estimate the counterfactual--i.e., the Kobe economy without the earthquake--we use the synthetic control method. Three important empirical patterns emerge: First, the population size and especially the average income level in Kobe have been lower than the counterfactual level without the earthquake for over fifteen years, indicating a permanent negative effect of the earthquake. Such a negative impact can be found especially in the central areas which are closer to the epicenter. Second, the surrounding areas experienced some positive permanent impacts in spite of short-run negative effects of the earthquake. Much of this is associated with movement of people to East Kobe, and consequent movement of jobs to the metropolitan center of Osaka, that is located immediately to the East of Kobe. Third, the furthest areas in the vicinity of Kobe seem to have been insulated from the large direct and indirect impacts of the earthquake.

SUBMITTER: duPont W

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4591010 | biostudies-literature | 2015

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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The Long-Run Socio-Economic Consequences of a Large Disaster: The 1995 Earthquake in Kobe.

duPont William W Noy Ilan I Okuyama Yoko Y Sawada Yasuyuki Y

PloS one 20151001 10

We quantify the 'permanent' socio-economic impacts of the Great Hanshin-Awaji (Kobe) earthquake in 1995 by employing a large-scale panel dataset of 1,719 cities, towns, and wards from Japan over three decades. In order to estimate the counterfactual--i.e., the Kobe economy without the earthquake--we use the synthetic control method. Three important empirical patterns emerge: First, the population size and especially the average income level in Kobe have been lower than the counterfactual level w ...[more]

PMID: 26426998

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Project description:BackgroundWe sought to determine whether socio-economic status (SES) is an independent predictor of outcome following total knee (TKR) and hip (THR) replacement in Australians.MethodsIn this prospective cohort study, we included patients undergoing TKR and THR in a public hospital in whom baseline and 12-month follow-up data were available. SES was determined using the Australian Bureau of Statistics 'Index of Relative Advantage and Disadvantage'. Other independent variables included patients' demographics, comorbidities and procedure-related variables. Outcome measures were the International Knee Society Score and Harris Hip Score pain and function subscales, and the Short Form Health Survey (SF-12) physical and mental component scores.ResultsAmong 1,016 patients undergoing TKR and 835 patients undergoing THR, in multiple regression analysis, SES score was not independently associated with pain and functional outcomes. Female sex, older age, being a non-English speaker, higher body mass index and presence of comorbidities were associated with greater post-operative pain and poorer functional outcomes following arthroplasty. Better baseline function, physical and mental health, and lower baseline level of pain were associated with better outcomes at 12 months. In univariate analysis, for TKR, the improvement in SF-12 mental health score post arthroplasty was greater in patients of lower SES (3.8 ± 12.9 versus 1.5 ± 12.2, p=0.008), with a statistically significant inverse association between SES score and post-operative SF-12 mental health score in linear regression analysis (coefficient-0.28, 95% CI: -0.52 to -0.04, p=0.02).ConclusionsWhen adjustments are made for other covariates, SES is not an independent predictor of pain and functional outcome following large joint arthroplasty in Australian patients. However, relative to baseline, patients in lower socioeconomic groups are likely to have greater mental health benefits with TKR than more privileged patients. Large joint arthroplasty should be made accessible to patients of all SES.

Project description:ObjectivesTo examine secular and socio-economic changes in cardiovascular disease risk factor prevalences in the Scottish population. This could contribute to a better understanding of why the decline in coronary heart disease mortality in Scotland has recently stalled along with a widening of socio-economic inequalities.DesignFour Scottish Health Surveys 1995, 1998, 2003 and 2008 (6190, 6656, 5497 and 4202 respondents, respectively, aged 25-64 years) were used to examine gender-stratified, age-standardised prevalences of smoking, alcohol consumption, physical activity, fruit and vegetable consumption, discretionary salt use and self-reported diabetes or hypertension. Prevalences were determined according to education and social class. Inequalities were assessed using the slope index of inequality, and time trends were determined using linear regression.ResultsThere were moderate secular declines in the prevalence of smoking, excess alcohol consumption and physical inactivity. Smoking prevalence declined between 1995 and 2008 from 33.4% (95% CI 31.8% to 35.0%) to 29.9% (27.9% to 31.8%) for men and from 36.1% (34.5% to 37.8%) to 27.4% (25.5% to 29.3%) for women. Adverse trends in prevalence were noted for self-reported diabetes and hypertension. Over the four surveys, the diabetes prevalence increased from 1.9% (1.4% to 2.4%) to 3.6% (2.8% to 4.4%) for men and from 1.7% (1.2% to 2.1%) to 3.0% (2.3% to 3.7%) for women. Socio-economic inequalities were evident for almost all risk factors, irrespective of the measure used. These social gradients appeared to be maintained over the four surveys. An exception was self-reported diabetes where, although inequalities were small, the gradient increased over time. Alcohol consumption was unique in consistently showing an inverse gradient, especially for women.ConclusionsThere has been only a moderate decline in behavioural cardiovascular risk factor prevalences since 1995, with increases in self-reported diabetes and hypertension. Adverse socio-economic gradients have remained unchanged. These findings could help explain the recent stagnation in coronary heart disease mortalities and persistence of related inequalities.

Dataset Information

The Long-Run Socio-Economic Consequences of a Large Disaster: The 1995 Earthquake in Kobe.

Publications

The Long-Run Socio-Economic Consequences of a Large Disaster: The 1995 Earthquake in Kobe.

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