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Mathematical Modeling to Assess the Drivers of the Recent Emergence of Typhoid Fever in Blantyre, Malawi.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Multiyear epidemics of Salmonella enterica serovar Typhi have been reported from countries across eastern and southern Africa in recent years. In Blantyre, Malawi, a dramatic increase in typhoid fever cases has recently occurred, and may be linked to the emergence of the H58 haplotype. Strains belonging to the H58 haplotype often exhibit multidrug resistance and may have a fitness advantage relative to other Salmonella Typhi strains.

Methods

To explore hypotheses for the increased number of typhoid fever cases in Blantyre, we fit a mathematical model to culture-confirmed cases of Salmonella enterica infections at Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital, Blantyre. We explored 4 hypotheses: (1) an increase in the basic reproductive number (R0) in response to increasing population density; (2) a decrease in the incidence of cross-immunizing infection with Salmonella Enteritidis; (3) an increase in the duration of infectiousness due to failure to respond to first-line antibiotics; and (4) an increase in the transmission rate following the emergence of the H58 haplotype.

Results

Increasing population density or decreasing cross-immunity could not fully explain the observed pattern of typhoid emergence in Blantyre, whereas models allowing for an increase in the duration of infectiousness and/or the transmission rate of typhoid following the emergence of the H58 haplotype provided a good fit to the data.

Conclusions

Our results suggest that an increase in the transmissibility of typhoid due to the emergence of drug resistance associated with the H58 haplotype may help to explain recent outbreaks of typhoid in Malawi and similar settings in Africa.

SUBMITTER: Pitzer VE

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4596932 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundDespite advocating for male involvement in antenatal education, there is unmet need for antenatal education information for expectant couples. The objective of this study was to gain a deeper understanding of the education content for couples during antenatal education sessions in Malawi. This is needed for the development of a tailor-made curriculum for couple antenatal education in the country, later to be tested for acceptability, feasibility and effectiveness.MethodsAn exploratory cross sectional descriptive study using a qualitative approach was conducted in semi-urban areas of Blantyre District in Malawi from February to August 2016. We conducted four focus group discussions (FGDs) among men and women independently. We also conducted one focus group discussion with nurses/ midwives, 13 key informant interviews whose participants were drawn from both health-related and non-health related institutions; 10 in-depth interviews with couples and 10 separate in-depth interviews with men who had attended antenatal clinics before with their spouses. All the interviews were audiotaped, transcribed verbatim and translated from Chichewa, the local language, into English. We managed data with NVivo 10.0 and used the thematic content approach as a guide for analysis.ResultsWe identified one overarching theme: couple antenatal education information needs. The theme had three subthemes which were identified based on the three domains of the maternity cycle which are pregnancy, labour and delivery and postpartum period. Preferred topics were; description of pregnancy, care of pregnant women, role of men during perinatal period, family life birth preparedness and complication readiness plan, coitus during pregnancy and after delivery, childbirth and baby care.ConclusionAntenatal education is a potential platform to disseminate information and discuss with male partners the childbearing period and early parenting. Hence, if both men and women were to participate in antenatal education, their information needs should be prioritized. Men and women had similar choices of topics to be taught during couple antenatal education, with some minor variations.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1186/s12884-018-2137-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.