Dataset Information

Increased threat of tropical cyclones and coastal flooding to New York City during the anthropogenic era.

ABSTRACT: In a changing climate, future inundation of the United States' Atlantic coast will depend on both storm surges during tropical cyclones and the rising relative sea levels on which those surges occur. However, the observational record of tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic basin is too short (A.D. 1851 to present) to accurately assess long-term trends in storm activity. To overcome this limitation, we use proxy sea level records, and downscale three CMIP5 models to generate large synthetic tropical cyclone data sets for the North Atlantic basin; driving climate conditions span from A.D. 850 to A.D. 2005. We compare pre-anthropogenic era (A.D. 850-1800) and anthropogenic era (A.D.1970-2005) storm surge model results for New York City, exposing links between increased rates of sea level rise and storm flood heights. We find that mean flood heights increased by ?1.24 m (due mainly to sea level rise) from ?A.D. 850 to the anthropogenic era, a result that is significant at the 99% confidence level. Additionally, changes in tropical cyclone characteristics have led to increases in the extremes of the types of storms that create the largest storm surges for New York City. As a result, flood risk has greatly increased for the region; for example, the 500-y return period for a ?2.25-m flood height during the pre-anthropogenic era has decreased to ?24.4 y in the anthropogenic era. Our results indicate the impacts of climate change on coastal inundation, and call for advanced risk management strategies.

SUBMITTER: Reed AJ

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4611656 | biostudies-literature | 2015 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Increased threat of tropical cyclones and coastal flooding to New York City during the anthropogenic era.

Reed Andra J AJ Mann Michael E ME Emanuel Kerry A KA Lin Ning N Horton Benjamin P BP Kemp Andrew C AC Donnelly Jeffrey P JP

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 20150928 41

In a changing climate, future inundation of the United States' Atlantic coast will depend on both storm surges during tropical cyclones and the rising relative sea levels on which those surges occur. However, the observational record of tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic basin is too short (A.D. 1851 to present) to accurately assess long-term trends in storm activity. To overcome this limitation, we use proxy sea level records, and downscale three CMIP5 models to generate large synthetic tr ...[more]

PMID: 26417111

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Project description:Mediterranean coastal lagoons are affected by multiple threats (demographic pressures, eutrophication, climate change) expected to increase in the future and impact the ecosystem services provided. Conservation norms and scientific studies usually focus on large lagoons (> 0.5 km2) due to their economic importance, while they ignore smaller lagoons. These are poorly understood and often unprotected, despite their prevalence within the Mediterranean region and their importance. Qualitative and quantitative characterisation of small lagoons, in terms of functioning and sensitivity to global and local changes, are needed to develop appropriate management strategies. For this purpose, this work provides the first inventory of all Corsican lagoons and has investigated three of them of small size (Arasu, Santa Giulia, Balistra), characterised by contrasting anthropogenic contexts (highly modified/disturbed, medium disturbance, quasi-pristine). At the regional level, 91 of the 95 lagoons identified are < 0.5 km2, making Corsica a good example for the study of small Mediterranean lagoons. The three case studies showed differences in their seasonal biogeochemical cycles and phytoplankton communities (biomass, diversity, photosynthetic efficiency). Arasu and Santa Giulia lagoons showed an increase in watershed urbanisation (+ 12% and + 6% in 30 years), high phytoplankton biomass, low diversity and blooms of potentially harmful dinoflagellates. Conversely, Balistra lagoon showed a good status overall, but some anthropogenic pollution sources within its watershed. This study demonstrates the importance of small lagoons at regional and Mediterranean scale, and provides knowledge on studied local sites but also potential applications elsewhere. The importance of an integrated approach considering lagoons within their adjacent connected systems (watershed and sea) and anthropogenic contexts is highlighted.Supplementary informationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s12237-023-01182-1.

Dataset Information

Increased threat of tropical cyclones and coastal flooding to New York City during the anthropogenic era.

Publications

Increased threat of tropical cyclones and coastal flooding to New York City during the anthropogenic era.

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