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Estimation of effect size distribution from genome-wide association studies and implications for future discoveries.

ABSTRACT: We report a set of tools to estimate the number of susceptibility loci and the distribution of their effect sizes for a trait on the basis of discoveries from existing genome-wide association studies (GWASs). We propose statistical power calculations for future GWASs using estimated distributions of effect sizes. Using reported GWAS findings for height, Crohn's disease and breast, prostate and colorectal (BPC) cancers, we determine that each of these traits is likely to harbor additional loci within the spectrum of low-penetrance common variants. These loci, which can be identified from sufficiently powerful GWASs, together could explain at least 15-20% of the known heritability of these traits. However, for BPC cancers, which have modest familial aggregation, our analysis suggests that risk models based on common variants alone will have modest discriminatory power (63.5% area under curve), even with new discoveries.

SUBMITTER: Park JH

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4615599 | biostudies-literature | 2010 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Estimation of effect size distribution from genome-wide association studies and implications for future discoveries.

Park Ju-Hyun JH Wacholder Sholom S Gail Mitchell H MH Peters Ulrike U Jacobs Kevin B KB Chanock Stephen J SJ Chatterjee Nilanjan N

Nature genetics 20100620 7

We report a set of tools to estimate the number of susceptibility loci and the distribution of their effect sizes for a trait on the basis of discoveries from existing genome-wide association studies (GWASs). We propose statistical power calculations for future GWASs using estimated distributions of effect sizes. Using reported GWAS findings for height, Crohn's disease and breast, prostate and colorectal (BPC) cancers, we determine that each of these traits is likely to harbor additional loci wi ...[more]

PMID: 20562874

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Project description:Characterizing the distribution of effects from genome-wide genotyping data is crucial for understanding important aspects of the genetic architecture of complex traits, such as number or proportion of non-null loci, average proportion of phenotypic variance explained per non-null effect, power for discovery, and polygenic risk prediction. To this end, previous work has used effect-size models based on various distributions, including the normal and normal mixture distributions, among others. In this paper we propose a scale mixture of two normals model for effect size distributions of genome-wide association study (GWAS) test statistics. Test statistics corresponding to null associations are modeled as random draws from a normal distribution with zero mean; test statistics corresponding to non-null associations are also modeled as normal with zero mean, but with larger variance. The model is fit via minimizing discrepancies between the parametric mixture model and resampling-based nonparametric estimates of replication effect sizes and variances. We describe in detail the implications of this model for estimation of the non-null proportion, the probability of replication in de novo samples, the local false discovery rate, and power for discovery of a specified proportion of phenotypic variance explained from additive effects of loci surpassing a given significance threshold. We also examine the crucial issue of the impact of linkage disequilibrium (LD) on effect sizes and parameter estimates, both analytically and in simulations. We apply this approach to meta-analysis test statistics from two large GWAS, one for Crohn's disease (CD) and the other for schizophrenia (SZ). A scale mixture of two normals distribution provides an excellent fit to the SZ nonparametric replication effect size estimates. While capturing the general behavior of the data, this mixture model underestimates the tails of the CD effect size distribution. We discuss the implications of pervasive small but replicating effects in CD and SZ on genomic control and power. Finally, we conclude that, despite having very similar estimates of variance explained by genotyped SNPs, CD and SZ have a broadly dissimilar genetic architecture, due to differing mean effect size and proportion of non-null loci.

Project description:OBJECTIVE:To report the genome-wide significant and/or replicable risk variants for alcohol dependence and explore their potential biological functions. METHODS:We searched in PubMed for all genome-wide association studies (GWASs) of alcohol dependence. The following three types of the results were extracted: genome-wide significant associations in an individual sample, the combined samples, or the meta-analysis (p?<?5?×?10(-8) ); top-ranked associations in an individual sample (p?<?10(-5) ) that were nominally replicated in other samples (p?<?.05); and nominally replicable associations across at least three independent GWAS samples (p?<?.05). These results were meta-analyzed. cis-eQTLs in human, RNA expression in rat and mouse brains and bioinformatics properties of all of these risk variants were analyzed. RESULTS:The variants located within the alcohol dehydrogenase (ADH) cluster were significantly associated with alcohol dependence at the genome-wide level (p?<?5?×?10(-8) ) in at least one sample. Some associations with the ADH cluster were replicable across six independent GWAS samples. The variants located within or near SERINC2, KIAA0040, MREG-PECR or PKNOX2 were significantly associated with alcohol dependence at the genome-wide level (p?<?5?×?10(-8) ) in meta-analysis or combined samples, and these associations were replicable across at least one sample. The associations with the variants within NRD1, GPD1L-CMTM8 or MAP3K9-PCNX were suggestive (5?×?10(-8) ?<?p?<?10(-5) ) in some samples, and nominally replicable in other samples. The associations with the variants at HTR7 and OPA3 were nominally replicable across at least three independent GWAS samples (10(-5) ?<?p?<?.05). Some risk variants at the ADH cluster, SERINC2, KIAA0040, NRD1, and HTR7 had potential biological functions. CONCLUSION:The most robust risk locus was the ADH cluster. SERINC2, KIAA0040, NRD1, and HTR7 were also likely to play important roles in alcohol dependence. PKNOX2, MREG, PECR, GPD1L, CMTM8, MAP3K9, PCNX, and OPA3 might play less important roles in risk for alcohol dependence based on the function analysis. This conclusion will significantly contribute to the post-GWAS follow-up studies on alcohol dependence.

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Estimation of effect size distribution from genome-wide association studies and implications for future discoveries.

Publications

Estimation of effect size distribution from genome-wide association studies and implications for future discoveries.

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