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Modelling estimates of the burden of Respiratory Syncytial virus infection in adults and the elderly in the United Kingdom.

ABSTRACT: Growing evidence suggests respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is an important cause of respiratory disease in adults. However, the adult burden remains largely uncharacterized as most RSV studies focus on children, and population-based studies with laboratory-confirmation of infection are difficult to implement. Indirect modelling methods, long used for influenza, can further our understanding of RSV burden by circumventing some limitations of traditional surveillance studies that rely on direct linkage of individual-level exposure and outcome data.Multiple linear time-series regression was used to estimate RSV burden in the United Kingdom (UK) between 1995 and 2009 among the total population and adults in terms of general practice (GP) episodes (counted as first consultation ?28 days following any previous consultation for same diagnosis/diagnostic group), hospitalisations, and deaths for respiratory disease, using data from Public Health England weekly influenza/RSV surveillance, Clinical Practice Research Datalink, Hospital Episode Statistics, and Office of National Statistics. The main outcome considered all ICD-listed respiratory diseases and, for GP episodes, related symptoms. Estimates were adjusted for non-specific seasonal drivers of disease using secular cyclical terms and stratified by age and risk group (according to chronic conditions indicating severe influenza risk as per UK recommendations for influenza vaccination). Trial registration NCT01706302 . Registered 11 October 2012.Among adults aged 18+ years an estimated 487,247 GP episodes, 17,799 hospitalisations, and 8,482 deaths were attributable to RSV per average season. Of these, 175,070 GP episodes (36 %), 14,039 hospitalisations (79 %) and 7,915 deaths (93 %) were in persons aged 65+ years. High- versus low-risk elderly were two-fold more likely to have a RSV-related GP episode or death and four-fold more likely be hospitalised for RSV. In most seasons since 2001, more GP episodes, hospitalisations and deaths were attributable to RSV in adults than to influenza.RSV is associated with a substantial disease burden in adults comparable to influenza, with most of the hospitalisation and mortality burden in the elderly. Treatment options and measures to prevent RSV could have a major impact on the burden of RSV respiratory disease in adults, especially the elderly.

SUBMITTER: Fleming DM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4618996 | biostudies-literature | 2015 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Modelling estimates of the burden of Respiratory Syncytial virus infection in adults and the elderly in the United Kingdom.

Fleming Douglas M DM Taylor Robert J RJ Lustig Roger L RL Schuck-Paim Cynthia C Haguinet François F Webb David J DJ Logie John J Matias Gonçalo G Taylor Sylvia S

BMC infectious diseases 20151023

<h4>Background</h4>Growing evidence suggests respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is an important cause of respiratory disease in adults. However, the adult burden remains largely uncharacterized as most RSV studies focus on children, and population-based studies with laboratory-confirmation of infection are difficult to implement. Indirect modelling methods, long used for influenza, can further our understanding of RSV burden by circumventing some limitations of traditional surveillance studies th ...[more]

PMID: 26497750

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Project description:BackgroundInfluenza is rarely confirmed with laboratory testing and accurate assessment of the overall burden of influenza is difficult. We used statistical modelling methods to generate updated, granular estimates of the number/rate of influenza-attributable hospitalisations and deaths in the United Kingdom. Such data are needed on a continuing basis to inform on cost-benefit analyses of treatment interventions, including vaccination.MethodsWeekly age specific data on hospital admissions (1997-2009) and on deaths (1997-2009) were obtained from national databases. Virology reports (1996-2009) of influenza and respiratory syncytial virus detections were provided by Public Health England. We used an expanded set of ICD-codes to estimate the burden of illness attributable to influenza which we refer to as 'respiratory disease broadly defined'. These codes were chosen to optimise the balance between sensitivity and specificity. A multiple linear regression model controlled for respiratory syncytial virus circulation, with stratification by age and the presence of comorbid risk status (conditions associated with severe influenza outcomes).ResultsIn the United Kingdom there were 28,516 hospitalisations and 7163 deaths estimated to be attributable to influenza respiratory disease in a mean season, with marked variability between seasons. The highest incidence rates of influenza-attributable hospitalisations and deaths were observed in adults aged 75+ years (252/100,000 and 131/100,000 population, respectively). Influenza B hospitalisations were highest among 5-17 year olds (12/100,000 population). Of all estimated influenza respiratory deaths in 75+ year olds, 50 % occurred out of hospital, and 25 % in 50-64 year olds. Rates of hospitalisations and death due to influenza-attributable respiratory disease were increased in adults identified as at-risk.ConclusionsOur study points to a substantial but highly variable seasonal influenza burden in all age groups, particularly affecting 75+ year olds. Effective influenza prevention or early intervention with anti-viral treatment in this age group may substantially impact the disease burden and associated healthcare costs. The high burden of influenza B hospitalisation among 5-17 year olds supports current United Kingdom vaccine policy to extend quadrivalent seasonal influenza vaccination to this age group.Trial registrationClinicalTrial.gov, NCT01520935.

Project description:BackgroundWe have previously estimated that respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) was associated with 22% of all episodes of (severe) acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI) resulting in 55 000 to 199 000 deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2005. In the past 5 years, major research activity on RSV has yielded substantial new data from developing countries. With a considerably expanded dataset from a large international collaboration, we aimed to estimate the global incidence, hospital admission rate, and mortality from RSV-ALRI episodes in young children in 2015.MethodsWe estimated the incidence and hospital admission rate of RSV-associated ALRI (RSV-ALRI) in children younger than 5 years stratified by age and World Bank income regions from a systematic review of studies published between Jan 1, 1995, and Dec 31, 2016, and unpublished data from 76 high quality population-based studies. We estimated the RSV-ALRI incidence for 132 developing countries using a risk factor-based model and 2015 population estimates. We estimated the in-hospital RSV-ALRI mortality by combining in-hospital case fatality ratios with hospital admission estimates from hospital-based (published and unpublished) studies. We also estimated overall RSV-ALRI mortality by identifying studies reporting monthly data for ALRI mortality in the community and RSV activity.FindingsWe estimated that globally in 2015, 33·1 million (uncertainty range [UR] 21·6-50·3) episodes of RSV-ALRI, resulted in about 3·2 million (2·7-3·8) hospital admissions, and 59 600 (48 000-74 500) in-hospital deaths in children younger than 5 years. In children younger than 6 months, 1·4 million (UR 1·2-1·7) hospital admissions, and 27 300 (UR 20 700-36 200) in-hospital deaths were due to RSV-ALRI. We also estimated that the overall RSV-ALRI mortality could be as high as 118 200 (UR 94 600-149 400). Incidence and mortality varied substantially from year to year in any given population.InterpretationGlobally, RSV is a common cause of childhood ALRI and a major cause of hospital admissions in young children, resulting in a substantial burden on health-care services. About 45% of hospital admissions and in-hospital deaths due to RSV-ALRI occur in children younger than 6 months. An effective maternal RSV vaccine or monoclonal antibody could have a substantial effect on disease burden in this age group.FundingThe Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Project description:IntroductionThe REGAL (RSV Evidence-a Geographical Archive of the Literature) series provide a comprehensive review of the published evidence in the field of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) in Western countries over the last 20 years. The objective of this fifth publication was to determine the long-term respiratory morbidity associated with RSV lower respiratory tract infection (RSV LRTI) in early life.MethodsA systematic review was undertaken for articles published between January 1, 1995 and December 31, 2015. This was supplemented by inclusion of papers published whilst drafting the manuscript. Studies reporting data on the incidence and long-term wheezing and asthma following RSV LRTI in early life were included. Study quality and strength of evidence (SOE) were graded using recognized criteria.ResultsA total of 2337 studies were identified of which 74 were included. Prospective, epidemiologic studies consistently demonstrated that RSV LRTI is a significant risk factor for on-going respiratory morbidity characterized by transient early wheezing and recurrent wheezing and asthma within the first decade of life and possibly into adolescence and adulthood (high SOE). RSV LRTI was also associated with impaired lung function in these children (high SOE). Respiratory morbidity has been shown to result in reduced quality of life and increased healthcare resource use (moderate SOE). The mechanisms through which RSV contributes to wheezing/asthma development are not fully understood, but appear to relate to the viral injury, preexisting abnormal lung function and/or other factors that predispose to wheezing/asthma, including genetic susceptibility, altered immunology, eosinophilia, and associated risk factors such as exposure to environmental tobacco smoke (high SOE).ConclusionThere is growing evidence that RSV LRTI in early childhood is associated with long-term wheezing and asthma and impaired lung function. Future research should aim to fully elucidate the pathophysiological mechanisms through which RSV causes recurrent wheezing/asthma.

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Modelling estimates of the burden of Respiratory Syncytial virus infection in adults and the elderly in the United Kingdom.

Publications

Modelling estimates of the burden of Respiratory Syncytial virus infection in adults and the elderly in the United Kingdom.

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