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Development and External Validation of Nomograms for Predicting Survival in Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma Patients after Definitive Radiotherapy.

ABSTRACT: The distant metastasis free survival (DMFS) and overall survival (OS) differ significantly among individuals even within the same clinical stages. The purpose of this retrospective study was to build nomograms incorporating plasma EBV DNA for predicting DMFS and OS of nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) patients after definitive radiotherapy. A total of 1168 non-metastatic NPC patients from two institutions were included to develop the nomograms. Seven and six independent prognostic factors were identified to build the nomograms for OS and DMFS, respectively. The models were externally validated by a separate cohort of 756 NPC patients from the third institutions. For predicting OS, the c-index of the nomogram was significantly better than that of the TNM staging system (Training cohort, P?=?0.005; validation cohort, P?=?0.03). The c-index of nomogram for DMFS in the training and validation set were both higher than that of TNM classification with marginal significance (P?=?0.048 and P?=?0.057, respectively). The probability of 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS and DMFS showed optimal agreement between nomogram prediction and actual observation. The proposed stratification of risk groups based on the nomograms allowed significant distinction between Kaplan-Meier curves for survival outcomes. The prognostic nomograms could better stratify patients into different risk groups.

SUBMITTER: Yang L

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4620487 | biostudies-literature | 2015 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Development and External Validation of Nomograms for Predicting Survival in Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma Patients after Definitive Radiotherapy.

Yang Lin L Hong Shaodong S Wang Yan Y Chen Haiyang H Liang Shaobo S Peng Peijian P Chen Yong Y

Scientific reports 20151026

The distant metastasis free survival (DMFS) and overall survival (OS) differ significantly among individuals even within the same clinical stages. The purpose of this retrospective study was to build nomograms incorporating plasma EBV DNA for predicting DMFS and OS of nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) patients after definitive radiotherapy. A total of 1168 non-metastatic NPC patients from two institutions were included to develop the nomograms. Seven and six independent prognostic factors were iden ...[more]

PMID: 26497224

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Project description:Much evidence has accumulated to show that inflammation and nutritional status are associated with the prognosis of patients with various cancers. The present study was designed to explore the prognostic role of the LANR in NPC patients receiving definitive radiotherapy and to construct a nomogram for predicting patient survival. This study retrospectively reviewed 805 NPC patients (604 in the training cohort and 201 in the validation cohort) who received definitive radiotherapy between January 2013 and December 2019. The clinical data and pretreatment laboratory test data, including lymphocyte count, neutrophil count, and serum ALB concentration, were collected for all patients. The LANR was calculated as the albumin × lymphocyte/neutrophil ratio. Patients in the training cohort and validation cohort were categorized into high-LANR and low-LANR groups according to the corresponding cutoff values. The independent prognostic factors for overall survival (OS), progression-free survival (PFS), relapse-free survival (RFS), and metastasis-free survival (MFS) were evaluated by univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses, and a nomogram was subsequently constructed. The performance of the nomogram was evaluated by the concordance index (C-index) and calibration curve. A low LANR (< 14.3) was independently associated with worse OS, PFS and MFS in NPC patients. A prognostic prediction nomogram was established based on T stage, N stage, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) score, treatment modality, and LANR and was validated. The C-indices of the nomograms for OS and PFS in the training cohort were 0.729 and 0.72, respectively. The C-indices of the nomograms for OS and PFS in the validation cohort were 0.694 and 0.695, respectively. The calibration curve revealed good consistency between the actual survival and the nomogram prediction. Patients with NPC with low pretreatment LANR had a poor prognosis. The nomogram established on the basis of the LANR was efficient and clinically useful for predicting survival in NPC patients who underwent definitive radiotherapy.

Project description:ImportanceThe standard of care for initiation of postoperative radiotherapy (PORT) in head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) is within 6 weeks of surgical treatment. Delays in guideline-adherent PORT initiation are common, associated with mortality, and a measure of quality care, but patient-specific tools to estimate the risk of these delays are lacking.ObjectiveTo develop and validate 2 nomograms (that use presurgical and postsurgical data) for predicting delayed PORT initiation.Design, setting, and participantsThis cohort study obtained patient data from January 1, 2004, to December 31, 2015, from the National Cancer Database. Adults aged 18 years or older with a newly diagnosed HNSCC who underwent surgical treatment and PORT at a Commission on Cancer-accredited facility were included. Data analysis was conducted from June 2, 2019, to January 29, 2020.ExposuresSurgical treatment and PORT.Main outcomes and measuresThe primary outcome measure was PORT initiation more than 6 weeks after the surgical intervention. Multivariable logistic regression models were created in a random selection of 80% of the sample (derivation cohort) and were internally validated with bootstrapping, assessed for discrimination by calibration plots and the concordance (C) index, and externally validated in the remaining 20% of the sample (validation cohort).ResultsThe study included 60 766 adults with HNSCC who were grouped into derivation and validation cohorts. The derivation cohort comprised 48 625 patients (mean [SD] age, 59.59 [11.3] years; 36 825 men [75.7%]) selected randomly from the full sample, whereas 12 151 patients (mean [SD] age, 59.63 [11.2] years; 9266 men [76.3%]) composed the validation cohort. The rate of PORT delay was 55.8% (n=27140) in the derivation cohort and 56.7% (n=6900) in the validation cohort. Both nomograms created to predict the risk of PORT initiation delay used variables, including race/ethnicity, insurance type, tumor site, and facility type. The nomogram based on presurgical variables included clinical stage and severity of comorbidity, whereas the nomogram with postsurgical variables included US region, length of stay, and care fragmentation between surgical and radiotherapy facilities. For the presurgical nomogram, the concordance indices were 0.670 (95% CI, 0.664-0.676) in the derivation cohort and 0.674 (95% CI, 0.662-0.685) in the validation cohort. For the nomogram with postsurgical variables, the concordance indices were 0.691 (95% CI, 0.686-0.696) in the derivation cohort and 0.694 (95% CI, 0.685-0.704) in the validation cohort.Conclusions and relevanceThis study found that a nomogram developed with presurgical data to generate personalized estimates of PORT initiation delay may improve pretreatment counseling and the delivery of interventions to patients at high risk for such a delay. A nomogram including postsurgical data can drive institutional quality improvement initiatives and enhance risk-adjusted comparisons of delay rates across facilities.

Project description:BackgroundTriple negative breast cancer (TNBC) is an aggressive and heterogeneous disease. Nomograms predicting outcomes of TNBC are needed for risk management.MethodsNomograms were based on an analysis of 296 non-metastatic TNBC patients treated at Sun Yat-sen Memorial Hospital from 2002 to 2014. The end points were disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS). Predictive accuracy and discriminative ability were evaluated by concordance index (C-index), area under the curve (AUC) and calibration curve, and compared with the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging system, PREDICT and CancerMath. Models were subjected to bootstrap internal validation and external validation using independent cohorts of 191 patients from the second Xiangya Hospital and Peking University Shenzhen Hospital between 2007 and 2012.ResultsOn multivariable analysis of training cohort, independent prognostic factors were stromal tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes (TILs), tumor size, node status, and Ki67 index, which were then selected into the nomograms. The calibration curves for probability of DFS and OS showed optimal agreement between nomogram prediction and actual observation. The C-index of nomograms was significantly higher than that of the seventh and eighth AJCC staging system for predicting DFS (training: 0.743 vs 0.666 (P = 0.003) and 0.664 (P = 0.024); validation: 0.784 vs 0.632 (P = 0.02) and 0.607 (P = 0.002)) and OS (training: 0.791 vs 0.683 (P = 0.004) and 0.677 (P < 0.001); validation: 0.783 vs 0.656 (P = 0.006) and 0.606 (P = 0.001)). Our nomograms had larger AUCs compared with PREDICT and CancerMath. In addition, the nomograms showed good performance in stratifying different risk groups of patients both in the training and validation cohorts.ConclusionWe have developed novel and practical nomograms that can provide individual prediction of DFS and OS for TNBC based on stromal TILs, tumor size, node status, and Ki67 index. Our nomograms may help clinicians in risk consulting and selection of long term survivors.

Dataset Information

Development and External Validation of Nomograms for Predicting Survival in Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma Patients after Definitive Radiotherapy.

Publications

Development and External Validation of Nomograms for Predicting Survival in Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma Patients after Definitive Radiotherapy.

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