Dataset Information

Systemic Risk Analysis on Reconstructed Economic and Financial Networks.

ABSTRACT: We address a fundamental problem that is systematically encountered when modeling real-world complex systems of societal relevance: the limitedness of the information available. In the case of economic and financial networks, privacy issues severely limit the information that can be accessed and, as a consequence, the possibility of correctly estimating the resilience of these systems to events such as financial shocks, crises and cascade failures. Here we present an innovative method to reconstruct the structure of such partially-accessible systems, based on the knowledge of intrinsic node-specific properties and of the number of connections of only a limited subset of nodes. This information is used to calibrate an inference procedure based on fundamental concepts derived from statistical physics, which allows to generate ensembles of directed weighted networks intended to represent the real system-so that the real network properties can be estimated as their average values within the ensemble. We test the method both on synthetic and empirical networks, focusing on the properties that are commonly used to measure systemic risk. Indeed, the method shows a remarkable robustness with respect to the limitedness of the information available, thus representing a valuable tool for gaining insights on privacy-protected economic and financial systems.

SUBMITTER: Cimini G

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4623768 | biostudies-literature | 2015 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Systemic Risk Analysis on Reconstructed Economic and Financial Networks.

Cimini Giulio G Squartini Tiziano T Garlaschelli Diego D Gabrielli Andrea A

Scientific reports 20151028

We address a fundamental problem that is systematically encountered when modeling real-world complex systems of societal relevance: the limitedness of the information available. In the case of economic and financial networks, privacy issues severely limit the information that can be accessed and, as a consequence, the possibility of correctly estimating the resilience of these systems to events such as financial shocks, crises and cascade failures. Here we present an innovative method to reconst ...[more]

PMID: 26507849

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Project description:BackgroundPathway alterations reflected as changes in gene expression regulation and gene interaction can result from cellular exposure to toxicants. Such information is often used to elucidate toxicological modes of action. From a risk assessment perspective, alterations in biological pathways are a rich resource for setting toxicant thresholds, which may be more sensitive and mechanism-informed than traditional toxicity endpoints. Here we developed a novel differential networks (DNs) approach to connect pathway perturbation with toxicity threshold setting.MethodsOur DNs approach consists of 6 steps: time-series gene expression data collection, identification of altered genes, gene interaction network reconstruction, differential edge inference, mapping of genes with differential edges to pathways, and establishment of causal relationships between chemical concentration and perturbed pathways. A one-sample Gaussian process model and a linear regression model were used to identify genes that exhibited significant profile changes across an entire time course and between treatments, respectively. Interaction networks of differentially expressed (DE) genes were reconstructed for different treatments using a state space model and then compared to infer differential edges/interactions. DE genes possessing differential edges were mapped to biological pathways in databases such as KEGG pathways.ResultsUsing the DNs approach, we analyzed a time-series Escherichia coli live cell gene expression dataset consisting of 4 treatments (control, 10, 100, 1000 mg/L naphthenic acids, NAs) and 18 time points. Through comparison of reconstructed networks and construction of differential networks, 80 genes were identified as DE genes with a significant number of differential edges, and 22 KEGG pathways were altered in a concentration-dependent manner. Some of these pathways were perturbed to a degree as high as 70% even at the lowest exposure concentration, implying a high sensitivity of our DNs approach.ConclusionsFindings from this proof-of-concept study suggest that our approach has a great potential in providing a novel and sensitive tool for threshold setting in chemical risk assessment. In future work, we plan to analyze more time-series datasets with a full spectrum of concentrations and sufficient replications per treatment. The pathway alteration-derived thresholds will also be compared with those derived from apical endpoints such as cell growth rate.

Dataset Information

Systemic Risk Analysis on Reconstructed Economic and Financial Networks.

Publications

Systemic Risk Analysis on Reconstructed Economic and Financial Networks.

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