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Expansion of the National Salt Reduction Initiative: A Mathematical Model of Benefits and Risks of Population-Level Sodium Reduction.

ABSTRACT: The National Salt Reduction Initiative, in which food producers agree to lower sodium to levels deemed feasible for different foods, is expected to significantly reduce sodium intake if expanded to a large sector of food manufacturers.Given recent data on the relationship between sodium intake, hypertension, and associated cardiovascular disease at a population level, we sought to examine risks and benefits of the program.To estimate the impact of further expanding the initiative on hypertension, myocardial infarction (MI) and stroke incidence, and related mortality, given food consumption patterns across the United States, we developed and validated a stochastic microsimulation model of hypertension, MI, and stroke morbidity and mortality, using data from food producers on sodium reduction among foods, linked to 24-hour dietary recalls, blood pressure, and cardiovascular histories from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey.Expansion of the initiative to ensure all restaurants and manufacturers reach agreed-upon sodium targets would be expected to avert from 0.9 to 3.0 MIs (a 1.6%-5.4% reduction) and 0.5 to 2.8 strokes (a 1.1%-6.2% reduction) per 10,000 Americans per year over the next decade, after incorporating consumption patterns and variations in the effect of sodium reduction on blood pressure among different demographic groups. Even high levels of consumer addition of table salt or substitution among food categories would be unlikely to neutralize this benefit. However, if recent epidemiological associations between very low sodium and increased mortality are causal, then older women may be at risk of increased mortality from excessively low sodium intake.An expanded National Salt Reduction Initiative is likely to significantly reduce hypertension and hypertension-related cardiovascular morbidity but may be accompanied by potential risks to older women.

SUBMITTER: Choi SE

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4626435 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Expansion of the National Salt Reduction Initiative: A Mathematical Model of Benefits and Risks of Population-Level Sodium Reduction.

Choi Sung Eun SE Brandeau Margaret L ML Basu Sanjay S

Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making 20150429 1

<h4>Background</h4>The National Salt Reduction Initiative, in which food producers agree to lower sodium to levels deemed feasible for different foods, is expected to significantly reduce sodium intake if expanded to a large sector of food manufacturers.<h4>Objective</h4>Given recent data on the relationship between sodium intake, hypertension, and associated cardiovascular disease at a population level, we sought to examine risks and benefits of the program.<h4>Design</h4>To estimate the impact ...[more]

PMID: 25926284

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Project description:OBJECTIVES:To estimate the effects of nationwide replacement of discretionary salt (used at table or during cooking) with potassium enriched salt substitute on morbidity and death from cardiovascular disease in China. DESIGN:Modelling study. SETTING:China. POPULATION:Adult population in China, and specifically individuals with chronic kidney disease (about 17 million people). INTERVENTIONS:Comparative risk assessment models were used to estimate the effects of a nationwide intervention to replace discretionary dietary salt with potassium enriched salt substitutes (20-30% potassium chloride). The models incorporated existing data and corresponding uncertainties from randomised trials, the China National Survey of Chronic Kidney Disease, the Global Burden of Disease Study, and the Chronic Kidney Disease Prognosis Consortium. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES:Averted deaths from cardiovascular disease, non-fatal events, and disability adjusted life years from a reduction in blood pressure were estimated after implementation of potassium enriched salt substitution. In individuals with chronic kidney disease, additional deaths from cardiovascular disease related to hyperkalaemia from increased intake of potassium were calculated. The net effects on deaths from cardiovascular disease were estimated as the difference and ratio of averted and additional deaths from cardiovascular disease. RESULTS:Nationwide implementation of potassium enriched salt substitution could prevent about 461?000 (95% uncertainty interval 196?339 to 704?438) deaths annually from cardiovascular disease, corresponding to 11.0% (4.7% to 16.8%) of annual deaths from cardiovascular disease in China; 743?000 (305?803 to 1?273?098) non-fatal cardiovascular events annually; and 7.9 (3.3 to 12.9) million disability adjusted life years related to cardiovascular disease annually. The intervention could potentially produce an estimated 11?000 (6422 to 16?562) additional deaths related to hyperkalaemia in individuals with chronic kidney disease. The net effect would be about 450?000 (183?699 to 697?084) fewer deaths annually from cardiovascular disease in the overall population and 21?000 (1928 to 42?926) fewer deaths in individuals with chronic kidney disease. In deterministic sensitivity analyses, with changes to key model inputs and assumptions, net benefits were consistent in the total population and in individuals with chronic kidney disease, with averted deaths outweighing additional deaths. CONCLUSIONS:Nationwide potassium enriched salt substitution in China was estimated to result in a substantial net benefit, preventing around one in nine deaths from cardiovascular disease overall. Taking account of the risks of hyperkalaemia, a substantial net benefit was also estimated for individuals with chronic kidney disease.

Project description:BackgroundHigh intake of added sugar is linked to weight gain and cardiometabolic risk. In 2018, the US National Salt and Sugar Reduction Initiative proposed government-supported voluntary national sugar reduction targets. This intervention's potential effects and cost-effectiveness are unclear.MethodsA validated microsimulation model, CVD-PREDICT (Cardiovascular Disease Policy Model for Risk, Events, Detection, Interventions, Costs, and Trends), coded in C++, was used to estimate incremental changes in type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease (CVD), quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), costs, and cost-effectiveness of the US National Salt and Sugar Reduction Initiative policy. The model was run at the individual level, incorporating the annual probability of each person's transition between health statuses on the basis of risk factors. The model incorporated national demographic and dietary data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey across 3 cycles (2011 through 2016), added sugar-related diseases from meta-analyses, and policy costs and health-related costs from established sources. A simulated nationally representative US population was created and followed until age 100 years or death, with 2019 as the year of intervention start. Findings were evaluated over 10 years and a lifetime from health care and societal perspectives. Uncertainty was evaluated in a 1-way analysis by assuming 50% industry compliance and probabilistic sensitivity analyses through a second-order Monte Carlo approach. Model outputs included averted diabetes cases, CVD events and CVD deaths, QALYs gained, and formal health care cost savings, stratified by age, race, income, and education.ResultsAchieving the US National Salt and Sugar Reduction Initiative sugar reduction targets could prevent 2.48 million CVD events, 0.49 million CVD deaths, and 0.75 million diabetes cases; gain 6.67 million QALYs; and save $160.88 billion net costs from a societal perspective over a lifetime. The policy became cost-effective (<150 000/QALYs) at 6 years, highly cost-effective (<50 000/QALYs) at 7 years, and cost-saving at 9 years. Results were robust from a health care perspective, with lower (50%) industry compliance, and in probabilistic sensitivity analyses. The policy could also reduce disparities, with greatest estimated health gains per million adults among Black or Hispanic individuals, lower income, and less educated Americans.ConclusionsImplementing and achieving the US National Salt and Sugar Reduction Initiative sugar reformation targets could generate substantial health gains, equity gains, and cost savings.

Project description:SummaryThe Women's Health Initiative (WHI) double-blind, placebo-controlled clinical trial randomly assigned 36,282 postmenopausal women in the U.S. to 1,000 mg elemental calcium carbonate plus 400 IU of vitamin D(3) daily or placebo, with average intervention period of 7.0 years. The trial was designed to test whether calcium plus vitamin D supplementation in a population in which the use of these supplements was widespread would reduce hip fracture, and secondarily, total fracture and colorectal cancer.IntroductionThis study further examines the health benefits and risks of calcium and vitamin D supplementation using WHI data, with emphasis on fractures, cardiovascular disease, cancer, and total mortality.MethodsWHI calcium and vitamin D randomized clinical trial (CT) data through the end of the intervention period were further analyzed with emphasis on treatment effects in relation to duration of supplementation, and these data were contrasted and combined with corresponding data from the WHI prospective observational study (OS).ResultsAmong women not taking personal calcium or vitamin D supplements at baseline, the hazard ratio [HR] for hip fracture occurrence in the CT following 5 or more years of calcium and vitamin D supplementation versus placebo was 0.62 (95 % confidence interval (CI), 0.38-1.00). In combined analyses of CT and OS data, the corresponding HR was 0.65 (95 % CI, 0.44-0.98). Supplementation effects were not apparent on the risks of myocardial infarction, coronary heart disease, total heart disease, stroke, overall cardiovascular disease, colorectal cancer, or total mortality, while evidence for a reduction in breast cancer risk and total invasive cancer risk among calcium plus vitamin D users was only suggestive.ConclusionThough based primarily on a subset analysis, long-term use of calcium and vitamin D appears to confer a reduction that may be substantial in the risk of hip fracture among postmenopausal women. Other health benefits and risks of supplementation at doses considered, including an elevation in urinary tract stone formation, appear to be modest and approximately balanced.

Project description:European eel (Anguilla anguilla) is a euryhaline species, that has adapted to cope with both, hyper- and hypo-osmotic environments. This study investigates the effect of salinity, from a morphological and molecular point of view on European eel larvae reared from 0 to 12 days post hatch (dph). Offspring reared in 36 practical salinity units (psu; control), were compared with larvae reared in six scenarios, where salinity was decreased on 0 or 3 dph and in rates of 1, 2 or 4 psu/day, towards iso-osmotic conditions. Results showed that several genes relating to osmoregulation (nkcc2α, nkcc2β, aqp1dup, aqpe), stress response (hsp70, hsp90), and thyroid metabolism (thrαA, thrαB, thrβB, dio1, dio2, dio3) were differentially expressed throughout larval development, while nkcc1α, nkcc2β, aqp3, aqp1dup, aqpe, hsp90, thrαA and dio3 showed lower expression in response to the salinity reduction. Moreover, larvae were able to keep energy metabolism related gene expression (atp6, cox1) at stable levels, irrespective of the salinity reduction. As such, when reducing salinity, an energy surplus associated to reduced osmoregulation demands and stress (lower nkcc, aqp and hsp expression), likely facilitated the observed increased survival, improved biometry and enhanced growth efficiency. Additionally, the salinity reduction decreased the amount of severe deformities such as spinal curvature and emaciation but also induced an edematous state of the larval heart, resulting in the most balanced mortality/deformity ratio when salinity was decreased on 3 dph and at 2 psu/day. However, the persistency of the pericardial edema and if or how it represents an obstacle in further larval development needs to be further clarified. In conclusion, this study clearly showed that salinity reduction regimes towards iso-osmotic conditions facilitated the European eel pre-leptocephalus development and revealed the existence of highly sensitive and regulated osmoregulation processes at such early life stage of this species.

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Expansion of the National Salt Reduction Initiative: A Mathematical Model of Benefits and Risks of Population-Level Sodium Reduction.

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Expansion of the National Salt Reduction Initiative: A Mathematical Model of Benefits and Risks of Population-Level Sodium Reduction.

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