Dataset Information

A Modeling and Simulation Framework for Adverse Events in Erlotinib-Treated Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer Patients.

ABSTRACT: Treatment with erlotinib, an epidermal growth factor receptor tyrosine kinase inhibitor used for treating non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and other cancers, is frequently associated with adverse events (AE). We present a modeling and simulation framework for the most common erlotinib-induced AE, rash, and diarrhea, providing insights into erlotinib toxicity. We used the framework to investigate the safety of high-dose erlotinib pulses proposed to limit acquired resistance while treating NSCLC. Continuous-time Markov models were developed using rash and diarrhea AE data from 39 NSCLC patients treated with erlotinib (150 mg/day). Exposure and different covariates were investigated as predictors of variability. Rash was also tested as a survival predictor. Models developed were used in a simulation analysis to compare the toxicities of different regimens, including the previously mentioned pulsed strategy. Probabilities of experiencing rash or diarrhea were found to be highest early during treatment. Rash, but not diarrhea, was positively correlated with erlotinib exposure. In contrast with some common understandings, radiotherapy decreased transitioning to higher rash grades by 81% (p?

SUBMITTER: Suleiman AA

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4627460 | biostudies-literature | 2015 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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A Modeling and Simulation Framework for Adverse Events in Erlotinib-Treated Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer Patients.

Suleiman Ahmed Abbas AA Frechen Sebastian S Scheffler Matthias M Zander Thomas T Nogova Lucia L Kocher Martin M Jaehde Ulrich U Wolf Jürgen J Fuhr Uwe U

The AAPS journal 20150819 6

Treatment with erlotinib, an epidermal growth factor receptor tyrosine kinase inhibitor used for treating non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and other cancers, is frequently associated with adverse events (AE). We present a modeling and simulation framework for the most common erlotinib-induced AE, rash, and diarrhea, providing insights into erlotinib toxicity. We used the framework to investigate the safety of high-dose erlotinib pulses proposed to limit acquired resistance while treating NSCLC ...[more]

PMID: 26286677

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Project description:PurposeImmune-mediated adverse events (imAEs) may be associated with response to immune checkpoint inhibitors. We assessed the relationship between imAE development and efficacy in metastatic non-small-cell lung cancer patients treated with durvalumab (anti-programmed cell death ligand-1 [PD-L1]) alone or in combination with tremelimumab (anti-cytotoxic T-lymphocyte-associated protein 4).MethodsThe analysis used individual patient-level data from 307 and 310 patients in the monotherapy and combination arms of MYSTIC, respectively. We evaluated the association between treatment efficacy and development of imAEs using univariate and multivariate survival analyses. Using machine learning, we built a predictive model utilizing baseline clinical and laboratory features to identify patients at risk of developing imAEs and further evaluated patient survival based on a threshold index extracted from the model.ResultsPatients who developed any grade of imAE had improved overall survival versus patients without (hazard ratio [HR] 0.51; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.41-0.62). imAE development was associated with improved overall survival (HR 0.54; 95% CI 0.44-0.66) in a multivariate Cox proportional hazard model considering patient demographic features and baseline characteristics. Higher odds of imAE development were observed (odds ratio 3.023; 95% CI: 1.56-5.83) in responders versus non-responders in patients treated with immunotherapy. Based on baseline characteristics, the random forest classification algorithm was used to formulate a predictive model to identify patients at increased risk of developing imAEs during treatment.ConclusionPost-hoc exploratory analysis found that the efficacy of immunotherapy was improved in patients who developed on-treatment imAEs. This was independent of severity of imAEs or the need for steroid treatment, which is important in allowing patients to remain on treatment and derive optimal clinical benefit. Further research is warranted to establish the correlation between incidence of imAEs and efficacy in this patient population.

Project description:Adverse events (AEs) related to medical treatments in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) are frequent and need an appropriate costing in health economic models. Nevertheless, data on costs associated with AEs in NSCLC are scarce, particularly since the development of immunotherapy with specific immune-related AEs.To estimate the costs of grades 3 and 4 AEs related to NSCLC treatments including immunotherapy in France.Grades 3 and 4 AEs related to treatment and reported in at least 1% of patients in Phase III clinical trials for erlotinib, ramucirumab plus docetaxel, docetaxel, pemetrexed plus carboplatin plus bevacizumab, platinum-based chemotherapies, nivolumab and pembrolizumab were identified. When no cost evaluation was reported in literature, estimates on standard treatments and medical resource use for each AE were obtained thanks to an expert panel. Total cost per AE was calculated from a French national health insurance perspective and updated in 2017 Euros. Hospital stay costs were estimated based on public and private weighted tariffs and data from the French Medical Information System (Programme de Médicalisation des Systèmes d'Information). Costs of tests, consultations and treatments were calculated based on national reimbursement tariffs.Overall, costs of grades 3 and 4 AEs related to treatment ranged from €46 per event to €7,742 per year. Fourteen out of 24 AEs identified had a mean estimated cost over €2,000. The highest mean costs were related to type 1 diabetes (€7,742 per year) followed by pneumonitis (€5,786 per event), anemia (€5,752 per event), dehydration (€5,207 per event) and anorexia (€4,349 per event). Costs were mostly driven by hospitalization costs.Among the AEs identified, a majority appeared to have an important economic impact, with a management cost of at least €2,000 per event mainly driven by hospitalization costs. This study may be of interest for economic evaluations of new interventions in NSCLC.

Dataset Information

A Modeling and Simulation Framework for Adverse Events in Erlotinib-Treated Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer Patients.

Publications

A Modeling and Simulation Framework for Adverse Events in Erlotinib-Treated Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer Patients.

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