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The nonlinear variation of drought and its relation to atmospheric circulation in Shandong Province, East China.

ABSTRACT: Considerable attention has recently been devoted to the linear trend of drought at the decadal to inter-decadal time scale; however, the nonlinear variation of drought at multi-decadal scales and its relation to atmospheric circulation need to be further studied. The linear and nonlinear variations of the Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) in Shandong from 1900 to 2012 and its relations to the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Siberian high (SH) and Southern Oscillation (SO) phase changes from multi-scale are detected using linear regression, the Mann-Kendall test, ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) and the Pearson correlation analysis method. The results indicate that the PDSI shows no statistically significant linear change trend from 1900 to 2012; however, before (after) the late 1950s, PDSI shows a significant upward (downward) trend (P < 0.01) with a linear rate of 0.28/decade (-0.48/decade). From 1900 to 2012, the PDSI also exhibits a nonlinear variation trend at the inter-annual scale (quasi-3 and quasi-7-year), inter-decadal scale (quasi-14-year) and multi-decadal scale (quasi-46 and quasi-65-year). The variance contribution rate of components from the inter-annual scale is the largest, reaching 38.7%, and that from the inter-decadal scale and multi-decadal scale are 18.9% and 19.0%, respectively, indicating that the inter-annual change exerts a huge influence on the overall PDSI change. The results also imply that the effect of the four atmospheric circulations (PDO, ENSO, SH, SO) on PDSI at the multi-decadal variability scale are more important than that at the other scales. Consequently, we state that PDSI variation at the inter-annual scale has more instability, while that at the inter-decadal and multi-decadal scale is more strongly influenced by natural factors.

SUBMITTER: Li B

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4627919 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:ImportanceHigh salt intake is associated with hypertension, which is a leading modifiable risk factor for cardiovascular disease.ObjectiveTo assess the association of a government-led, multisectoral, and population-based intervention with reduced salt intake and blood pressure in Shandong Province, China.Design, setting, and participantsThis cross-sectional study used data from the Shandong-Ministry of Health Action on Salt and Hypertension (SMASH) program, a 5-year intervention to reduce sodium consumption in Shandong Province, China. Two representative samples of adults (aged 18-69 years) were surveyed in 2011 (15 350 preintervention participants) and 2016 (16 490 postintervention participants) to examine changes in blood pressure, and knowledge, attitudes, and behaviors related to sodium intake. Urine samples were collected from random subsamples (2024 preintervention participants and 1675 postintervention participants) for measuring sodium and potassium excretion. Data were analyzed from January 20, 2017, to April 9, 2019.InterventionsMedia campaigns, distribution of scaled salt spoons, promotion of low-sodium products in markets and restaurants, and activities to support household sodium reduction and school-based sodium reduction education.Main outcomes and measuresThe primary outcome was change in urinary sodium excretion. Secondary outcomes were changes in potassium excretion, blood pressure, and knowledge, attitudes, and behaviors. Outcomes were adjusted for likely confounders. Means (95% CIs) and percentages were weighted.ResultsAmong 15 350 participants in 2011, 7683 (50.4%) were men and the mean age was 40.7 years (95% CI, 40.2-41.2 years); among 16 490 participants in 2016, 8077 (50.7%) were men and the mean age was 42.8 years (95% CI, 42.5-43.1 years). Among participants with 24-hour urine samples, 1060 (51.8%) were men and the mean age was 40.9 years (95% CI, 40.5-41.3 years) in 2011 and 836 (50.7%) were men and the mean age was 40.7 years (95% CI, 40.1-41.4 years) in 2016. The 24-hour urinary sodium excretion decreased 25% from 5338 mg per day (95% CI, 5065-5612 mg per day) in 2011 to 4013 mg per day (95% CI, 3837-4190 mg per day) in 2016 (P < .001), and potassium excretion increased 15% from 1607 mg per day (95% CI, 1511-1704 mg per day) to 1850 mg per day (95% CI, 1771-1929 mg per day) (P < .001). Adjusted mean systolic blood pressure among all participants decreased from 131.8 mm Hg (95% CI, 129.8-133.8 mm Hg) to 130.0 mm Hg (95% CI, 127.7-132.4 mm Hg) (P = .04), and diastolic blood pressure decreased from 83.9 mm Hg (95% CI, 82.6-85.1 mm Hg) to 80.8 mm Hg (95% CI, 79.4-82.1 mm Hg) (P < .001). Knowledge, attitudes, and behaviors associated with dietary sodium reduction and hypertension improved significantly.Conclusions and relevanceThe findings suggest that a government-led and population-based intervention in Shandong, China, was associated with significant decreases in dietary sodium intake and a modest reduction in blood pressure. The results of SMASH may have implications for sodium reduction and blood pressure control in other regions of China and worldwide.

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The nonlinear variation of drought and its relation to atmospheric circulation in Shandong Province, East China.

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