Dataset Information

Examining Temporal Sample Scale and Model Choice with Spatial Capture-Recapture Models in the Common Leopard Panthera pardus.

ABSTRACT: Many large carnivores occupy a wide geographic distribution, and face threats from habitat loss and fragmentation, poaching, prey depletion, and human wildlife-conflicts. Conservation requires robust techniques for estimating population densities and trends, but the elusive nature and low densities of many large carnivores make them difficult to detect. Spatial capture-recapture (SCR) models provide a means for handling imperfect detectability, while linking population estimates to individual movement patterns to provide more accurate estimates than standard approaches. Within this framework, we investigate the effect of different sample interval lengths on density estimates, using simulations and a common leopard (Panthera pardus) model system. We apply Bayesian SCR methods to 89 simulated datasets and camera-trapping data from 22 leopards captured 82 times during winter 2010-2011 in Royal Manas National Park, Bhutan. We show that sample interval length from daily, weekly, monthly or quarterly periods did not appreciably affect median abundance or density, but did influence precision. We observed the largest gains in precision when moving from quarterly to shorter intervals. We therefore recommend daily sampling intervals for monitoring rare or elusive species where practicable, but note that monthly or quarterly sample periods can have similar informative value. We further develop a novel application of Bayes factors to select models where multiple ecological factors are integrated into density estimation. Our simulations demonstrate that these methods can help identify the "true" explanatory mechanisms underlying the data. Using this method, we found strong evidence for sex-specific movement distributions in leopards, suggesting that sexual patterns of space-use influence density. This model estimated a density of 10.0 leopards/100 km2 (95% credibility interval: 6.25-15.93), comparable to contemporary estimates in Asia. These SCR methods provide a guide to monitor and observe the effect of management interventions on leopards and other species of conservation interest.

SUBMITTER: Goldberg JF

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4633112 | biostudies-literature | 2015

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Examining Temporal Sample Scale and Model Choice with Spatial Capture-Recapture Models in the Common Leopard Panthera pardus.

Goldberg Joshua F JF Tempa Tshering T Norbu Nawang N Hebblewhite Mark M Mills L Scott LS Wangchuk Tshewang R TR Lukacs Paul P

PloS one 20151104 11

Many large carnivores occupy a wide geographic distribution, and face threats from habitat loss and fragmentation, poaching, prey depletion, and human wildlife-conflicts. Conservation requires robust techniques for estimating population densities and trends, but the elusive nature and low densities of many large carnivores make them difficult to detect. Spatial capture-recapture (SCR) models provide a means for handling imperfect detectability, while linking population estimates to individual mo ...[more]

PMID: 26536231

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Project description:The African leopard (Panthera pardus pardus) has lost a significant proportion of its historical range, notably in north-western Africa and South Africa. Recent studies have explored the genetic diversity and population structure of African leopards across the continent. A notable genetic observation is the presence of two divergent mitochondrial lineages, PAR-I and PAR-II. Both lineages appeared to be distributed widely, with PAR-II frequently found in southern Africa. Until now, no study has attempted to date the emergence of either lineage, assess haplotype distribution, or explore their evolutionary histories in any detail. To investigate these underappreciated questions, we compiled the largest and most geographically representative leopard data set of the mitochondrial NADH-5 gene to date. We combined samples (n = 33) collected in an altitudinal transect across the Mpumalanga province of South Africa, where two populations of leopard are known to be in genetic contact, with previously published sequences of African leopard (n = 211). We estimate that the maternal PAR-I and PAR-II lineages diverged approximately 0.7051 (0.4477-0.9632) million years ago (Ma). Through spatial and demographic analyses, we show that while PAR-I underwent a mid-Pleistocene population expansion resulting in several closely related haplotypes with little geographic structure across much of its range, PAR-II remained at constant size and may even have declined slightly in the last 0.1 Ma. The higher genetic drift experienced within PAR-II drove a greater degree of structure with little haplotype sharing and unique haplotypes in central Africa, the Cape, KwaZulu-Natal and the South African Highveld. The phylogeographic structure of PAR-II, with its increasing frequency southward and its exclusive occurrence in south-eastern South Africa, suggests that this lineage may have been isolated in South Africa during the mid-Pleistocene. This hypothesis is supported by historical changes in paleoclimate that promoted intense aridification around the Limpopo Basin between 1.0-0.6 Ma, potentially reducing gene flow and promoting genetic drift. Interestingly, we ascertained that the two nuclear DNA populations identified by a previous study as East and West Mpumalanga correspond to PAR-I and PAR-II, respectively, and that they have come into secondary contact in the Lowveld region of South Africa. Our results suggest a subdivision of African leopard mtDNA into two clades, with one occurring almost exclusively in South Africa, and we identify the potential environmental drivers of this observed structure. We caution that our results are based on a single mtDNA locus, but it nevertheless provides a hypothesis that can be further tested with a dense sample of nuclear DNA data, preferably whole genomes. If our interpretation holds true, it would provide the first genetic explanation for the smaller observed size of leopards at the southernmost end of their range in Africa.

Project description:Abstract Conservation of large carnivores such as leopards requires large and interconnected habitats. Despite the wide geographic range of the leopard globally, only 17% of their habitat is within protected areas. Leopards are widely distributed in Nepal, but their population status and occupancy are poorly understood. We carried out the sign‐based leopard occupancy survey across the entire Chure range (~19,000 km2) to understand the habitat occupancy along with the covariates affecting their occupancy. Leopard signs were obtained from in 70 out of 223 grids surveyed, with a naïve leopard occupancy of 0.31. The model‐averaged leopard occupancy was estimated to be 0.5732 (SE 0.0082) with a replication‐level detection probability of 0.2554 (SE 0.1142). The top model shows the additive effect of wild boar, ruggedness, presence of livestock, and human population density positively affecting the leopard occupancy. The detection probability of leopard was higher outside the protected areas, less in the high NDVI (normalized difference vegetation index) areas, and higher in the areas with livestock presence. The presence of wild boar was strong predictor of leopard occupancy followed by the presence of livestock, ruggedness, and human population density. Leopard occupancy was higher in west Chure (0.70 ± SE 0.047) having five protected areas compared with east Chure (0.46 ± SE 0.043) with no protected areas. Protected areas and prey species had positive influence on leopard occupancy in west Chure range. Similarly in the east Chure, the leopard occupancy increased with prey, NDVI, and terrain ruggedness. Enhanced law enforcement and mass awareness activities are necessary to reduce poaching/killing of wild ungulates and leopards in the Chure range to increase leopard occupancy. In addition, maintaining the sufficient natural prey base can contribute to minimize the livestock depredation and hence decrease the human–leopard conflict in the Chure range. The model‐averaged leopard occupancy in the Chure range (~19,000 km2) was 0.5732 (SE 0.0082) with a detection probability of 0.2554 (SE 0.1142). The top model included wild boar, ruggedness, presence of livestock, and human population density as covariates. Further, maintaining a sufficient natural prey base can contribute to minimize the livestock depredation and hence decrease the human–leopard conflict in the Chure range.

Project description:Understanding large carnivore occurrence patterns in anthropogenic landscapes adjacent to protected areas is central to developing actions for species conservation in an increasingly human-dominated world. Among large carnivores, leopards (Panthera pardus) are the most widely distributed felid. Leopards occupying anthropogenic landscapes frequently come into conflict with humans, which often results in leopard mortality. Leopards' use of anthropogenic landscapes, and their frequent involvement with conflict, make them an insightful species for understanding the determinants of carnivore occurrence across human-dominated habitats. We evaluated the spatial variation in leopard site use across a multiple-use landscape in Tanzania's Ruaha landscape. Our study region encompassed i) Ruaha National Park, where human activities were restricted and sport hunting was prohibited; ii) the Pawaga-Idodi Wildlife Management Area, where wildlife sport hunting, wildlife poaching, and illegal pastoralism all occurred at relatively low levels; and iii) surrounding village lands where carnivores and other wildlife were frequently exposed to human-carnivore conflict related-killings and agricultural habitat conversion and development. We investigated leopard occurrence across the study region via an extensive camera trapping network. We estimated site use as a function of environmental (i.e. habitat and anthropogenic) variables using occupancy models within a Bayesian framework. We observed a steady decline in leopard site use with downgrading protected area status from the national park to the Wildlife Management Area and village lands. Our findings suggest that human-related activities such as increased livestock presence and proximity to human households exerted stronger influence than prey availability on leopard site use, and were the major limiting factors of leopard distribution across the gradient of human pressure, especially in the village lands outside Ruaha National Park. Overall, our study provides valuable information about the determinants of spatial distribution of leopards in human-dominated landscapes that can help inform conservation strategies in the borderlands adjacent to protected areas.

Project description:BACKGROUND:Resolving the historical biogeography of the leopard (Panthera pardus) is a complex issue, because patterns inferred from fossils and from molecular data lack congruence. Fossil evidence supports an African origin, and suggests that leopards were already present in Eurasia during the Early Pleistocene. Analysis of DNA sequences however, suggests a more recent, Middle Pleistocene shared ancestry of Asian and African leopards. These contrasting patterns led researchers to propose a two-stage hypothesis of leopard dispersal out of Africa: an initial Early Pleistocene colonisation of Asia and a subsequent replacement by a second colonisation wave during the Middle Pleistocene. The status of Late Pleistocene European leopards within this scenario is unclear: were these populations remnants of the first dispersal, or do the last surviving European leopards share more recent ancestry with their African counterparts? RESULTS:In this study, we generate and analyse mitogenome sequences from historical samples that span the entire modern leopard distribution, as well as from Late Pleistocene remains. We find a deep bifurcation between African and Eurasian mitochondrial lineages (~?710 Ka), with the European ancient samples as sister to all Asian lineages (~?483 Ka). The modern and historical mainland Asian lineages share a relatively recent common ancestor (~?122 Ka), and we find one Javan sample nested within these. CONCLUSIONS:The phylogenetic placement of the ancient European leopard as sister group to Asian leopards suggests that these populations originate from the same out-of-Africa dispersal which founded the Asian lineages. The coalescence time found for the mitochondrial lineages aligns well with the earliest undisputed fossils in Eurasia, and thus encourages a re-evaluation of the identification of the much older putative leopard fossils from the region. The relatively recent ancestry of all mainland Asian leopard lineages suggests that these populations underwent a severe population bottleneck during the Pleistocene. Finally, although only based on a single sample, the unexpected phylogenetic placement of the Javan leopard could be interpreted as evidence for exchange of mitochondrial lineages between Java and mainland Asia, calling for further investigation into the evolutionary history of this subspecies.

Dataset Information

Examining Temporal Sample Scale and Model Choice with Spatial Capture-Recapture Models in the Common Leopard Panthera pardus.

Publications

Examining Temporal Sample Scale and Model Choice with Spatial Capture-Recapture Models in the Common Leopard Panthera pardus.

Similar Datasets

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