Dataset Information

Population Dynamics of Owned, Free-Roaming Dogs: Implications for Rabies Control.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Rabies is a serious yet neglected public health threat in resource-limited communities in Africa, where the virus is maintained in populations of owned, free-roaming domestic dogs. Rabies elimination can be achieved through the mass vaccination of dogs, but maintaining the critical threshold of vaccination coverage for herd immunity in these populations is hampered by their rapid turnover. Knowledge of the population dynamics of free-roaming dog populations can inform effective planning and implementation of mass dog vaccination campaigns to control rabies. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS:We implemented a health and demographic surveillance system in dogs that monitored the entire owned dog population within a defined geographic area in a community in Mpumalanga Province, South Africa. We quantified demographic rates over a 24-month period, from 1st January 2012 through 1st January 2014, and assessed their implications for rabies control by simulating the decline in vaccination coverage over time. During this period, the population declined by 10%. Annual population growth rates were +18.6% in 2012 and -24.5% in 2013. Crude annual birth rates (per 1,000 dog-years of observation) were 451 in 2012 and 313 in 2013. Crude annual death rates were 406 in 2012 and 568 in 2013. Females suffered a significantly higher mortality rate in 2013 than males (mortality rate ratio [MRR] = 1.54, 95% CI = 1.28-1.85). In the age class 0-3 months, the mortality rate of dogs vaccinated against rabies was significantly lower than that of unvaccinated dogs (2012: MRR = 0.11, 95% CI = 0.05-0.21; 2013: MRR = 0.31, 95% CI = 0.11-0.69). The results of the simulation showed that achieving a 70% vaccination coverage during annual campaigns would maintain coverage above the critical threshold for at least 12 months. CONCLUSIONS AND SIGNIFICANCE:Our findings provide an evidence base for the World Health Organization's empirically-derived target of 70% vaccination coverage during annual campaigns. Achieving this will be effective even in highly dynamic populations with extremely high growth rates and rapid turnover. This increases confidence in the feasibility of dog rabies elimination in Africa through mass vaccination.

SUBMITTER: Conan A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4636342 | biostudies-literature | 2015 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Population Dynamics of Owned, Free-Roaming Dogs: Implications for Rabies Control.

Conan Anne A Akerele Oluyemisi O Simpson Greg G Reininghaus Bjorn B van Rooyen Jacques J Knobel Darryn D

PLoS neglected tropical diseases 20151106 11

<h4>Background</h4>Rabies is a serious yet neglected public health threat in resource-limited communities in Africa, where the virus is maintained in populations of owned, free-roaming domestic dogs. Rabies elimination can be achieved through the mass vaccination of dogs, but maintaining the critical threshold of vaccination coverage for herd immunity in these populations is hampered by their rapid turnover. Knowledge of the population dynamics of free-roaming dog populations can inform effectiv ...[more]

PMID: 26545242

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Project description:Canine rabies can be effectively controlled by vaccination with readily available, high-quality vaccines. These vaccines should provide protection from challenge in healthy dogs, for the claimed period, for duration of immunity, which is often two or three years. It has been suggested that, in free-roaming dog populations where rabies is endemic, vaccine-induced protection may be compromised by immuno-suppression through malnutrition, infection and other stressors. This may reduce the proportion of dogs that seroconvert to the vaccine during vaccination campaigns and the duration of immunity of those dogs that seroconvert. Vaccination coverage may also be limited through insufficient vaccine delivery during vaccination campaigns and the loss of vaccinated individuals from populations through demographic processes. This is the first longitudinal study to evaluate temporal variations in rabies vaccine-induced serological responses, and factors associated with these variations, at the individual level in previously unvaccinated free-roaming dog populations. Individual-level serological and health-based data were collected from three cohorts of dogs in regions where rabies is endemic, one in South Africa and two in Indonesia. We found that the vast majority of dogs seroconverted to the vaccine; however, there was considerable variation in titres, partly attributable to illness and lactation at the time of vaccination. Furthermore, >70% of the dogs were vaccinated through community engagement and door-to-door vaccine delivery, even in Indonesia where the majority of the dogs needed to be caught by net on successive occasions for repeat blood sampling and vaccination. This demonstrates the feasibility of achieving population-level immunity in free-roaming dog populations in rabies-endemic regions. However, attrition of immune individuals through demographic processes and waning immunity necessitates repeat vaccination of populations within at least two years to ensure communities are protected from rabies. These findings support annual mass vaccination campaigns as the most effective means to control canine rabies.

Project description:BackgroundMeasuring the size of free roaming dog populations quickly and accurately is critical in the implementation of numerous preventive health and population control interventions. However, few studies have investigated the relative performance of population size assessment tools when applied to dogs. The aim of this study was to compare the commonly used mark-resight methodology with distance sampling methods, which are less resource intensive, to estimate free-roaming dog abundance in Goa, India. Twenty-six working zones were surveyed along all roads twice by the same surveyor at the same time of day, following a vaccination campaign which included marking of vaccinated dogs with a coloured paint. The Chapman estimate was then used to evaluate the mark-resight abundance. Additionally, the number of dogs and perpendicular distance from the road for all dogs sighted was recorded. This was used to estimate dog density and abundance using distance sampling methods. The detection function was fitted based on goodness-of-fit and AIC.ResultsThe Chapman abundance estimate for the entire study area was 5202 dogs (95%CI 4733.8-5671.0), and the distance sampling method abundance estimate was 5067 dogs (95%CI 4454.3-5764.2). For individual working zones, after taking other factors into account in a mixed effects model, the average distance sampling estimate was 35% higher (95%CI 20-53%) than the Chapman estimate. There was also evidence of a difference in estimates between surveyors of 21% (95%CI 7-37%) and between days (22% lower on day 2, 95%CI 8-38%) for individual working zones.ConclusionOur study demonstrated that the distance sampling estimates were comparable overall to the Chapman method of abundance estimation of free roaming dogs across the entire study region but there was noticeable variation between the two methods when individual zones were compared. Consequently, distance sampling methods may be suitable to enumerate dogs over large areas in a more time efficient manner than the widely used mark-resight approach.

Project description:Poor management of dog populations causes many problems in different countries, including rabies. To strategically design a dog population management, certain sets of data are required, such as the population size and spatial distribution of dogs. However, these data are rarely available or incomplete. Hence, this study aimed to describe the characteristics of dog populations in Thailand, explore their spatial distribution and relevant factors, and estimate the number of dogs in the whole country. First, four districts were selected as representatives of each region. Each district was partitioned into grids with a 300-m resolution. The selected grids were then surveyed, and the number of dogs and related data were collected. Random forest models with a two-part approach were used to quantify the association between the surveyed dog population and predictor variables. The spatial distribution of dog populations was then predicted. A total of 1,750 grids were surveyed (945 grids with dog presence and 805 grids with dog absence). Among the surveyed dogs, 86.6% (12,027/13,895) were owned. Of these, 51% were classified as independent, followed by confined (25%), semi-independent (21%), and unidentified dogs (3%). Seventy-two percent (1,348/1,868) of the ownerless dogs were feral, and the rest were community dogs. The spatial pattern of the dog populations was highly distributed in big cities such as Bangkok and its suburbs. In owned dogs, it was linked to household demographics, whereas it was related to community factors in ownerless dogs. The number of estimated dogs in the entire country was 12.8 million heads including 11.2 million owned dogs (21.7 heads/km2) and 1.6 million ownerless dogs (3.2 heads/km2). The methods developed here are extrapolatable to a larger area and use much less budget and manpower compared to the present practices. Our results are helpful for canine rabies prevention and control programs, such as dog population management and control and rabies vaccine allocation.

Project description:Adequate vaccination coverage of free roaming dogs (FRD) against canine rabies is not achieved primarily due to difficulties in administering parenteral vaccinations to this population. One factor associated with this difficulty is the tendency of FRD to form groups, which increases their aggressive behavior, resulting in a significant risk of dog-bites for the vaccinators. This study investigated factors that influenced FRD forming groups and their home-ranges, using data obtained from photographic capture-recapture/sight-resight surveys conducted in rural Shirsuphal (584 sightings) and urban Panchkula (3208 sightings), India. In the rural site, older dogs (OR 0.5, 95% CI 0.2-0.9, p = 0.03) and FRD sighted within 20 m of garbage sites (OR 0.6, 95% CI 0.4-0.9, p = 0.02) were less likely to be in groups. The number of dogs sighted with an FRD decreased with increased resight-probability of that dog (?= -1.0, p < 0.001). The rural FRD with smaller home-ranges were more likely to be sighted alone (OR 2.3, 95% CI 1.0-95, p = 0.04) than those with larger home-ranges. In the urban site, females (OR 1.3, 95% CI 1.1-1.5, p = 0.002) and older dogs (OR 1.5, 95% CI 1.1-2.1, p = 0.07) were more likely to be found in groups, and groups of dogs were more likely to be seen within 20 meters of garbage sites (OR 1.7, 95% CI 1.5-2.0, p < 0.001). The distribution of urban FRD sighted alone, in pairs, triads, and in packs of ?4 dogs were not random in the administrative (p = 0.02), and the two industrial (p = 0.03 & 0.01) survey tracks of the urban site, implying stable groups. The resighting probability of a dog (? = 0.3, p < 0.0001) and presence of garbage within 20 m (? = 0.2, p < 0.0001) in the urban site increased the likelihood of sighting a FRD with other dogs. It is concluded that data on the resighting probability, presence of garbage points, and home-ranges can be utilised to guide the selection of parenteral or oral rabies vaccination to achieve a population vaccination coverage of 70% to break the transmission cycle of rabies virus in FRD in India.

Dataset Information

Population Dynamics of Owned, Free-Roaming Dogs: Implications for Rabies Control.

Publications

Population Dynamics of Owned, Free-Roaming Dogs: Implications for Rabies Control.

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