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Reverse Epidemiology of Traditional Cardiovascular Risk Factors in the Geriatric Population.

ABSTRACT: Traditional risk factors of cardiovascular death in the general population, including body mass index (BMI), serum cholesterol, and blood pressure (BP), are also found to relate to outcomes in the geriatric population, but in an opposite direction. Some degrees of elevated BMI, serum cholesterols, and BP are reportedly associated with lower, instead of higher, risk of death among the elderly. This phenomenon is termed "reverse epidemiology" or "risk factor paradox" (such as obesity paradox) and is also observed in a variety of chronic disease states such as end-stage renal disease requiring dialysis, chronic heart failure, rheumatoid arthritis, and AIDS. Several possible causes are hypothesized to explain this risk factor reversal: competing short-term and long-term killers, improved hemodynamic stability in the obese, adipokine protection against tumor necrosis factor-?, lipoprotein protection against endotoxins, and lipophilic toxin sequestration by the adipose tissue. It is possible that the current thresholds for intervention and goal levels for such traditional risk factors as BMI, serum cholesterol, and BP derived based on younger populations do not apply to the elderly, and that new levels for such risk factors should be developed for the elderly population. Reverse epidemiology of conventional cardiovascular risk factors may have a bearing on the management of the geriatric population, thus it deserves further attention.

SUBMITTER: Ahmadi SF

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4636955 | biostudies-literature | 2015 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Reverse Epidemiology of Traditional Cardiovascular Risk Factors in the Geriatric Population.

Ahmadi Seyed-Foad SF Streja Elani E Zahmatkesh Golara G Streja Dan D Kashyap Moti M Moradi Hamid H Molnar Miklos Z MZ Reddy Uttam U Amin Alpesh N AN Kovesdy Csaba P CP Kalantar-Zadeh Kamyar K

Journal of the American Medical Directors Association 20150909 11

Traditional risk factors of cardiovascular death in the general population, including body mass index (BMI), serum cholesterol, and blood pressure (BP), are also found to relate to outcomes in the geriatric population, but in an opposite direction. Some degrees of elevated BMI, serum cholesterols, and BP are reportedly associated with lower, instead of higher, risk of death among the elderly. This phenomenon is termed "reverse epidemiology" or "risk factor paradox" (such as obesity paradox) and ...[more]

PMID: 26363864

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Project description:BACKGROUND:Childhood cancer survivors have an increased risk of heart failure, ischemic heart disease, and stroke. They may benefit from prediction models that account for cardiotoxic cancer treatment exposures combined with information on traditional cardiovascular risk factors such as hypertension, dyslipidemia, and diabetes. METHODS:Childhood Cancer Survivor Study participants (n?=?22 643) were followed through age 50?years for incident heart failure, ischemic heart disease, and stroke. Siblings (n?=?5056) served as a comparator. Participants were assessed longitudinally for hypertension, dyslipidemia, and diabetes based on self-reported prescription medication use. Half the cohort was used for discovery; the remainder for replication. Models for each outcome were created for survivors ages 20, 25, 30, and 35?years at the time of prediction (n?=?12 models). RESULTS:For discovery, risk scores based on demographic, cancer treatment, hypertension, dyslipidemia, and diabetes information achieved areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve and concordance statistics 0.70 or greater in 9 and 10 of the 12 models, respectively. For replication, achieved areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve and concordance statistics 0.70 or greater were observed in 7 and 9 of the models, respectively. Across outcomes, the most influential exposures were anthracycline chemotherapy, radiotherapy, diabetes, and hypertension. Survivors were then assigned to statistically distinct risk groups corresponding to cumulative incidences at age 50 years of each target outcome of less than 3% (moderate-risk) or approximately 10% or greater (high-risk). Cumulative incidence of all outcomes was 1% or less among siblings. CONCLUSIONS:Traditional cardiovascular risk factors remain important for predicting risk of cardiovascular disease among adult-age survivors of childhood cancer. These prediction models provide a framework on which to base future surveillance strategies and interventions.

Project description:BackgroundThe atherogenic index of plasma (AIP) is composed of triglycerides and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and is a novel marker for assessing the risk of atherogenicity and cardiometabolic health. An association between AIP and greater frequency of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs) in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus and high cardiovascular (CV) disease risk has been reported. However, only few studies have examined the correlation between AIP and CV risk in general populations. We thus aimed to evaluate the relationship between AIP and CV diseases using a large-scale population dataset from the Korean National Health Insurance Service-National Health Screening Cohort (NHIS-HEALS).MethodsA total of 514,866 participants were enrolled from the NHIS-HEALS and classified according to the AIP quartiles. We performed univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analyses to determine the association between AIP and MACEs, CV events, and CV mortality.ResultsDuring follow-up, we documented 12,133, 11,055, and 1942 cases of MACEs, CV events, and CV mortality, respectively. The multivariate-adjusted hazard ratios [HRs; 95% confidence interval (CI)] for MACEs gradually and significantly increased with the AIP quartiles [1.113 (1.054-1.175) in Q2, 1.175 (1.113-1.240) in Q3, and 1.278 (1.209-1.350) in Q4], following an adjustment for the conventional CV risk factors, including age, sex, body mass index, smoking, alcohol drinking, physical activities, household income, fasting glucose, systolic blood pressure, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and estimated glomerular filtration rate. In subgroup analyses, the association of AIP with MACEs and CV events was particularly outstanding in patients with diabetes.ConclusionsAIP was significantly associated with CV risks after adjusting for the traditional risk factors. Therefore, it may be used as an effective mass screening method to identify patients at a high risk of CV events.

Project description:BackgroundAccurate assessment of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk across heterogeneous populations is needed for effective primary prevention. Little is known about the performance of standard cardiovascular risk factors in older adults.ObjectiveTo evaluate the performance of the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Pooled Cohort Equations (PCE) risk model, as well as the underlying cardiovascular risk factors, among adults older than 65 years.Design and settingRetrospective cohort derived from a regional referral system's electronic medical records.ParticipantsA total of 25 349 patients who were 65 years or older at study baseline (date of the first outpatient lipid panel taken between 2007 and 2010).MeasurementsExposures of interest were traditional cardiovascular risk factors, as defined by inclusion in the PCE model. The primary outcome was major ASCVD events, defined as a composite of myocardial infarctions, stroke, and cardiovascular death.ResultsThe PCE and internally estimated models produced similar risk distributions for white men aged 65 to 74 years. For all other groups, PCE predictions were generally lower than those of the internal models, particularly for African Americans. Discrimination of the PCE was poor for all age groups, with concordance index (95% confidence interval) estimates of 0.62 (0.60-0.64), 0.56 (0.54-0.57), and 0.52 (0.49-0.54) among patients aged 65 to 74, 75 to 84, and 85 years and older, respectively. Reestimating relationships within these age groups resulted in better calibration but negligible improvements in discrimination. Blood pressure, total cholesterol, and diabetes either were not associated at all or had inverse associations in the older age groups.ConclusionTraditional clinical risk factors for cardiovascular disease failed to accurately characterize risk in a contemporary population of Medicare-aged patients. Among those aged 85 years and older, some traditional risk factors were not associated with ASCVD events. Better risk models are needed to appropriately inform treatment decision making for the growing population of older adults. J Am Geriatr Soc 68:754-761, 2020.

Dataset Information

Reverse Epidemiology of Traditional Cardiovascular Risk Factors in the Geriatric Population.

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Reverse Epidemiology of Traditional Cardiovascular Risk Factors in the Geriatric Population.

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