Dataset Information

Prediction and validation of hemodialysis duration in acute methanol poisoning.

ABSTRACT: The duration of hemodialysis (HD) in methanol poisoning (MP) is dependent on the methanol concentration, the operational parameters used during HD, and the presence and severity of metabolic acidosis. However, methanol assays are not easily available, potentially leading to undue extension or premature termination of treatment. Here we provide a prediction model for the duration of high-efficiency HD in MP. In a retrospective cohort study, we identified 71 episodes of MP in 55 individuals who were treated with alcohol dehydrogenase inhibition and HD. Four patients had residual visual abnormality at discharge and only one patient died. In 46 unique episodes of MP with high-efficiency HD the mean methanol elimination half-life (T1/2) during HD was 108?min in women, significantly different from the 129?min in men. In a training set of 28 patients with MP, using the 90th percentile of gender-specific elimination T1/2 (147?min in men and 141?min in women) and a target methanol concentration of 4?mmol/l allowed all cases to reach a safe methanol of under 6?mmol/l. The prediction model was confirmed in a validation set of 18 patients with MP. High-efficiency HD time in hours can be estimated using 3.390 × (Ln (MCi/4)) for women and 3.534 × (Ln (MCi/4)) for men, where MCi is the initial methanol concentration in mmol/l, provided that metabolic acidosis is corrected.

SUBMITTER: Lachance P

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4653586 | biostudies-literature | 2015 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Prediction and validation of hemodialysis duration in acute methanol poisoning.

Lachance Philippe P Mac-Way Fabrice F Desmeules Simon S De Serres Sacha A SA Julien Anne-Sophie AS Douville Pierre P Ghannoum Marc M Agharazii Mohsen M

Kidney international 20150805 5

The duration of hemodialysis (HD) in methanol poisoning (MP) is dependent on the methanol concentration, the operational parameters used during HD, and the presence and severity of metabolic acidosis. However, methanol assays are not easily available, potentially leading to undue extension or premature termination of treatment. Here we provide a prediction model for the duration of high-efficiency HD in MP. In a retrospective cohort study, we identified 71 episodes of MP in 55 individuals who we ...[more]

PMID: 26244924

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Project description:BackgroundA prediction model of mortality for patients with acute poisoning has to consider both poisoning-related characteristics and patients' physiological conditions; moreover, it must be applicable to patients of all ages. This study aimed to develop a scoring system for predicting in-hospital mortality of patients with acute poisoning at the emergency department (ED).MethodsThis was a retrospective analysis of the Injury Surveillance Cohort generated by the Korea Center for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC) during 2011-2018. We developed the new-Poisoning Mortality Scoring system (new-PMS) to generate a prediction model using the derivation group (2011-2017 KCDC cohort). Points were computed for categories of each variable. The sum of these points was the new-PMS. The validation group (2018 KCDC cohort) was subjected to external temporal validation. The performance of new-PMS in predicting mortality was evaluated using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) for both the groups.ResultsOf 57,326 poisoning cases, 42,568 were selected. Of these, 34,352 (80.7%) and 8216 (19.3%) were enrolled in the derivation and validation groups, respectively. The new-PMS was the sum of the points for each category of 10 predictors. The possible range of the new-PMS was 0-137 points. Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test showed adequate calibration for the new-PMS with p values of 0.093 and 0.768 in the derivation and validation groups, respectively. AUROCs of the new-PMS were 0.941 (95% CI 0.934-0.949, p < 0.001) and 0.946 (95% CI 0.929-0.964, p < 0.001) in the derivation and validation groups, respectively. The sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy of the new-PMS (cutoff value: 49 points) were 86.4%, 87.2%, and 87.2% and 85.9%, 89.5%, and 89.4% in the derivation and validation groups, respectively.ConclusionsWe developed a new-PMS system based on demographic, poisoning-related variables, and vital signs observed among patients at the ED. The new-PMS showed good performance for predicting in-hospital mortality in both the derivation and validation groups. The probability of death increased according to the increase in the new-PMS. The new-PMS accurately predicted the probability of death for patients with acute poisoning. This could contribute to clinical decision making for patients with acute poisoning at the ED.

Project description:BackgroundOutbreaks of methanol poisoning occur frequently on a global basis, affecting poor and vulnerable populations. Knowledge regarding methanol is limited, likely many cases and even outbreaks go unnoticed, with patients dying unnecessarily. We describe findings from the first three large outbreaks of methanol poisoning where Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) responded, and evaluate the benefits of a possible future collaboration between local health authorities, a Non-Governmental Organisation and international expertise.MethodsRetrospective study of three major methanol outbreaks in Libya (2013) and Kenya (May and July 2014). Data were collected from MSF field personnel, local health personnel, hospital files, and media reports.FindingsIn Tripoli, Libya, over 1,000 patients were poisoned with a reported case fatality rate of 10% (101/1,066). In Kenya, two outbreaks resulted in approximately 341 and 126 patients, with case fatality rates of 29% (100/341) and 21% (26/126), respectively. MSF launched an emergency team with international experts, medications and equipment, however, the outbreaks were resolving by the time of arrival.InterpretationRecognition of an outbreak of methanol poisoning and diagnosis seem to be the most challenging tasks, with significant delay from time of first presentations to public health warnings being issued. In spite of the rapid response from an emergency team, the outbreaks were nearly concluded by the time of arrival. A major impact on the outcome was not seen, but large educational trainings were conducted to increase awareness and knowledge about methanol poisoning. Based on this training, MSF was able to send a local emergency team during the second outbreak, supporting that such an approach could improve outcomes. Basic training, simplified treatment protocols, point-of-care diagnostic tools, and early support when needed, are likely the most important components to impact the consequences of methanol poisoning outbreaks in these challenging contexts.

Dataset Information

Prediction and validation of hemodialysis duration in acute methanol poisoning.

Publications

Prediction and validation of hemodialysis duration in acute methanol poisoning.

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