Dataset Information

Additional Arctic observations improve weather and sea-ice forecasts for the Northern Sea Route.

ABSTRACT: During ice-free periods, the Northern Sea Route (NSR) could be an attractive shipping route. The decline in Arctic sea-ice extent, however, could be associated with an increase in the frequency of the causes of severe weather phenomena, and high wind-driven waves and the advection of sea ice could make ship navigation along the NSR difficult. Accurate forecasts of weather and sea ice are desirable for safe navigation, but large uncertainties exist in current forecasts, partly owing to the sparse observational network over the Arctic Ocean. Here, we show that the incorporation of additional Arctic observations improves the initial analysis and enhances the skill of weather and sea-ice forecasts, the application of which has socioeconomic benefits. Comparison of 63-member ensemble atmospheric forecasts, using different initial data sets, revealed that additional Arctic radiosonde observations were useful for predicting a persistent strong wind event. The sea-ice forecast, initialised by the wind fields that included the effects of the observations, skilfully predicted rapid wind-driven sea-ice advection along the NSR.

SUBMITTER: Inoue J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4653624 | biostudies-literature | 2015 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Additional Arctic observations improve weather and sea-ice forecasts for the Northern Sea Route.

Inoue Jun J Yamazaki Akira A Ono Jun J Dethloff Klaus K Maturilli Marion M Neuber Roland R Edwards Patti P Yamaguchi Hajime H

Scientific reports 20151120

During ice-free periods, the Northern Sea Route (NSR) could be an attractive shipping route. The decline in Arctic sea-ice extent, however, could be associated with an increase in the frequency of the causes of severe weather phenomena, and high wind-driven waves and the advection of sea ice could make ship navigation along the NSR difficult. Accurate forecasts of weather and sea ice are desirable for safe navigation, but large uncertainties exist in current forecasts, partly owing to the sparse ...[more]

PMID: 26585690

Similar Datasets

Project description:This data article includes the datasets of the mean and the standard deviation of ice thickness in a set of sailing zones for a sailing route that goes through the Northern Sea Route (NSR) between Murmansk and Pusan. The route under consideration is between the longitudes 33° 45' 0″ and 129° 3' 60″ and the latitudes 69° 24' 27″ and 35° 6' 0″ that correspond to the ports of Murmansk (Russia) in the west and Pusan (China) in the east respectively. Within this area, the part that is between the longitude 57° 0' 0″ and -168° 58' 0″ and the latitude 70° 27' 18″ and 69° 6' 0″ correspond to the NSR. This route has been divided into 49 subzones, and each subzone into squares of 12.5km of side following the data structure of the database Copernicus [1]. The detailed coordinates of the subzones (longitude and latitude) are provided in the article. The daily ice thickness for the period between January 1, 2006 and December 31, 2016 has been obtained for each of the 12.5km sided squares. This data article provides the normality test outcomes and the corresponding p-value of the ice thickness data for each subzone on each calendar day. Moreover, the mean and the standard deviation of the ice thickness in each subzone are also provided. The data provided in this data article can be very helpful for researchers for different applications related to the weather conditions in the NSR zone or to shipping related issues. For instance, the data provided in this paper can be used to investigate the change in ice thickness in the NSR over the period 2006-2016 and to estimate future changes. Another potential application is the estimation of the need for icebreaker assistance as well as the possible ranges for the vessel sailing speed based on the vessel type and for any navigation day in any of the NSR zones. In addition, this data can be used to estimate the risk of blockage for any vessel type because of ice conditions in the NSR zones. It can be helpful to estimate the economic viability of shipping through the NSR since the icebreaker assistance, the speed and the risk of blockage have an effect on the profitability of the shipping lines that may use the NSR.

Dataset Information

Additional Arctic observations improve weather and sea-ice forecasts for the Northern Sea Route.

Publications

Additional Arctic observations improve weather and sea-ice forecasts for the Northern Sea Route.

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