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Predictors of mortality, LVAD implant, or heart transplant in primary prevention cardiac resynchronization therapy recipients: The HF-CRT score.

ABSTRACT: Cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) reduces morbidity and mortality among individuals with dyssynchronous systolic heart failure (HF). However, patient outcomes vary, with some at higher risk than others for HF progression and death.To develop a risk prediction score incorporating variables associated with mortality, left ventricular assist device (LVAD) implant, or heart transplant in recipients of a primary prevention cardiac resynchronization therapy-defibrillator (CRT-D).We followed 305 CRT-D patients from the Prospective Observational Study of Implantable Cardioverter-Defibrillators for the composite outcome of all-cause mortality, LVAD implant, or heart transplant soon after device implantation. Serum biomarkers and electrocardiographic and clinical variables were collected at implant. Multivariable analysis using the Cox proportional hazards model with stepwise selection method was used to fit the final model.Among 305 patients, 53 experienced the composite endpoint. In multivariable analysis, 5 independent predictors ("HF-CRT") were identified: high-sensitivity C-reactive protein >9.42 ng/L (HR = 2.5 [1.4, 4.5]), New York Heart Association functional class III/IV (HR = 2.3 [1.2, 4.5]), creatinine >1.2 mg/dL (HR = 2.7 [1.4, 5.1]), red blood cell count <4.3 × 10(6)/?L (HR = 2.4 [1.3, 4.7]), and cardiac troponin T >28 ng/L (HR = 2.7 [1.4, 5.2]). One point was attributed to each predictor and 3 score categories were identified. Patients with scores 0-1, 2-3, and 4-5 had a 3-year cumulative event-free survival of 96.8%, 79.7%, and 35.2%, respectively (log-rank, P < .001).A simple score combining clinical and readily available biomarker data can risk-stratify CRT patients for HF progression and death. These findings may help identify patients who are in need of closer monitoring or early application of more aggressive circulatory support.

SUBMITTER: Nauffal V

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4656051 | biostudies-literature | 2015 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Predictors of mortality, LVAD implant, or heart transplant in primary prevention cardiac resynchronization therapy recipients: The HF-CRT score.

Nauffal Victor V Tanawuttiwat Tanyanan T Zhang Yiyi Y Rickard John J Marine Joseph E JE Butcher Barbara B Norgard Sanaz S Dickfeld Timm T Ellenbogen Kenneth A KA Guallar Eliseo E Tomaselli Gordon F GF Cheng Alan A

Heart rhythm 20150717 12

<h4>Background</h4>Cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) reduces morbidity and mortality among individuals with dyssynchronous systolic heart failure (HF). However, patient outcomes vary, with some at higher risk than others for HF progression and death.<h4>Objective</h4>To develop a risk prediction score incorporating variables associated with mortality, left ventricular assist device (LVAD) implant, or heart transplant in recipients of a primary prevention cardiac resynchronization therapy-d ...[more]

PMID: 26190316

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Project description:Background Prior studies have shown that women have worse 3-month survival after receiving a left ventricular assist device compared with men. Currently used prognostic scores, including the Heartmate II Risk Score, do not account for the increased residual risk in women. We used the IMACS (International Society for Heart and Lung Transplantation Mechanically Assisted Circulatory Support) registry to create and validate a sex-specific risk score for early mortality in left ventricular assist device recipients. Methods and Results Adult patients with a continuous-flow LVAD from the IMACS registry were randomly divided into a derivation cohort (DC; n=9113; 21% female) and a validation cohort (VC; n=6074; 21% female). The IMACS Risk Score was developed in the DC to predict 3-month mortality, from preoperative candidate predictors selected using the Akaike information criterion, or significant sex × variable interaction. In the DC, age, cardiogenic shock at implantation, body mass index, blood urea nitrogen, bilirubin, hemoglobin, albumin, platelet count, left ventricular end-diastolic diameter, tricuspid regurgitation, dialysis, and major infection before implantation were retained as significant predictors of 3-month mortality. There was significant ischemic heart failure × sex and platelet count × sex interaction. For each quartile increase in IMACS risk score, men (odds ratio [OR], 1.86; 95% CI, 1.74-2.00; P<0.0001), and women (OR, 1.93; 95% CI, 1.47-2.59; P<0.0001) had higher odds of 3-month mortality. The IMACS risk score represented a significant improvement over Heartmate II Risk Score (IMACS risk score area under the receiver operating characteristic curve: men: DC, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.69-0.73; VC, 0.69; 95% CI, 0.66-0.72; women: DC, 0.73; 95% CI, 0.70-0.77; VC, 0.71 [95% CI, 0.66-0.76; P<0.01 for improvement in receiver operating characteristic) and provided excellent risk calibration in both sexes. Removal of sex-specific interaction terms resulted in significant loss of model fit. Conclusions A sex-specific risk score provides excellent risk prediction in LVAD recipients.

Dataset Information

Predictors of mortality, LVAD implant, or heart transplant in primary prevention cardiac resynchronization therapy recipients: The HF-CRT score.

Publications

Predictors of mortality, LVAD implant, or heart transplant in primary prevention cardiac resynchronization therapy recipients: The HF-CRT score.

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