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Simultaneous Prediction of New Morbidity, Mortality, and Survival Without New Morbidity From Pediatric Intensive Care: A New Paradigm for Outcomes Assessment.

ABSTRACT: Assessments of care including quality assessments adjusted for physiological status should include the development of new morbidities as well as mortalities. We hypothesized that morbidity, like mortality, is associated with physiological dysfunction and could be predicted simultaneously with mortality.Prospective cohort study from December 4, 2011, to April 7, 2013.General and cardiac/cardiovascular PICUs at seven sites.Randomly selected PICU patients from their first PICU admission.None.Among 10,078 admissions, the unadjusted morbidity rates (measured with the Functional Status Scale and defined as an increase of ? 3 from preillness to hospital discharge) were 4.6% (site range, 2.6-7.7%) and unadjusted mortality rates were 2.7% (site range, 1.3-5.0%). Morbidity and mortality were significantly (p < 0.001) associated with physiological instability (measured with the Pediatric Risk of Mortality III score) in dichotomous (survival and death) and trichotomous (survival without new morbidity, survival with new morbidity, and death) models without covariate adjustments. Morbidity risk increased with increasing Pediatric Risk of Mortality III scores and then decreased at the highest Pediatric Risk of Mortality III values as potential morbidities became mortalities. The trichotomous model with covariate adjustments included age, admission source, diagnostic factors, baseline Functional Status Scale, and the Pediatric Risk of Mortality III score. The three-level goodness-of-fit test indicated satisfactory performance for the derivation and validation sets (p > 0.20). Predictive ability assessed with the volume under the surface was 0.50?±?0.019 (derivation) and 0.50?±?0.034 (validation) (vs chance performance = 0.17). Site-level standardized morbidity ratios were more variable than standardized mortality ratios.New morbidities were associated with physiological status and can be modeled simultaneously with mortality. Trichotomous outcome models including both morbidity and mortality based on physiological status are suitable for research studies and quality and other outcome assessments. This approach may be applicable to other assessments presently based only on mortality.

SUBMITTER: Pollack MM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4657566 | biostudies-literature | 2015 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Simultaneous Prediction of New Morbidity, Mortality, and Survival Without New Morbidity From Pediatric Intensive Care: A New Paradigm for Outcomes Assessment.

Pollack Murray M MM Holubkov Richard R Funai Tomohiko T Berger John T JT Clark Amy E AE Meert Kathleen K Berg Robert A RA Carcillo Joseph J Wessel David L DL Moler Frank F Dalton Heidi H Newth Christopher J L CJ Shanley Thomas T Harrison Rick E RE Doctor Allan A Jenkins Tammara L TL Tamburro Robert R Dean J Michael JM

Critical care medicine 20150801 8

<h4>Objectives</h4>Assessments of care including quality assessments adjusted for physiological status should include the development of new morbidities as well as mortalities. We hypothesized that morbidity, like mortality, is associated with physiological dysfunction and could be predicted simultaneously with mortality.<h4>Design</h4>Prospective cohort study from December 4, 2011, to April 7, 2013.<h4>Setting</h4>General and cardiac/cardiovascular PICUs at seven sites.<h4>Patients</h4>Randomly ...[more]

PMID: 25985385

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Project description:OBJECTIVES:To describe the epidemiology, morbidity, and mortality of new or progressive multiple organ dysfunction syndrome in children with severe sepsis. DESIGN:Secondary analysis of a prospective, cross-sectional, point prevalence study. SETTING:International, multicenter PICUs. PATIENTS:Pediatric patients with severe sepsis identified on five separate days over a 1-year period. INTERVENTIONS:None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS:Of 567 patients from 128 PICUs in 26 countries enrolled, 384 (68%) developed multiple organ dysfunction syndrome within 7 days of severe sepsis recognition. Three hundred twenty-seven had multiple organ dysfunction syndrome on the day of sepsis recognition. Ninety-one of these patients developed progressive multiple organ dysfunction syndrome, whereas an additional 57 patients subsequently developed new multiple organ dysfunction syndrome, yielding a total proportion with severe sepsis-associated new or progressive multiple organ dysfunction syndrome of 26%. Hospital mortality in patients with progressive multiple organ dysfunction syndrome was 51% compared with patients with new multiple organ dysfunction syndrome (28%) and those with single-organ dysfunction without multiple organ dysfunction syndrome (10%) (p < 0.001). Survivors of new or progressive multiple organ dysfunction syndrome also had a higher frequency of moderate to severe disability defined as a Pediatric Overall Performance Category score of greater than or equal to 3 and an increase of greater than or equal to 1 from baseline: 22% versus 29% versus 11% for progressive, new, and no multiple organ dysfunction syndrome, respectively (p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS:Development of new or progressive multiple organ dysfunction syndrome is common (26%) in severe sepsis and is associated with a higher risk of morbidity and mortality than severe sepsis without new or progressive multiple organ dysfunction syndrome. Our data support the use of new or progressive multiple organ dysfunction syndrome as an important outcome in trials of pediatric severe sepsis although efforts are needed to validate whether reducing new or progressive multiple organ dysfunction syndrome leads to improvements in more definitive morbidity and mortality endpoints.

Project description:Background: The mortality prediction scores were widely used in pediatric intensive care units. However, their performances were unclear in Chinese patients and there were also no reports based on large sample sizes in China. This study aims to evaluate the performances of three existing severity assessment scores in predicting PICU mortality and to identify important determinants. Methods: This prospective observational cohort study was carried out in eight multidisciplinary, tertiary-care PICUs of teaching hospitals in China. All eligible patients admitted to the PICUs between Aug 1, 2016, and Jul 31, 2017, were consecutively enrolled, among whom 3,957 were included for analysis. We calculated PCIS, PRISM IV, and PELOD-2 scores based on patient data collected in the first 24 h after PICU admission. The in-hospital mortality was defined as all-cause death within 3 months after admission. The discrimination of mortality was assessed using the area under the receiver-operating characteristics curve (AUC) and calibrated using the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test. Results: A total of 4,770 eligible patients were recruited (median age 18.2 months, overall mortality rate 4.7%, median length of PICU stay 6 days), and 3,957 participants were included in the analysis. The AUC (95% confidence intervals, CI) were 0.74 (0.71-0.78), 0.76 (0.73-0.80), and 0.80 (0.77-0.83) for PCIS, PRISM IV, and PELOD-2, respectively. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test gave a chi-square of 3.16 for PCIS, 2.16 for PRISM IV and 4.81 for PELOD-2 (p ≥ 0.19). Cox regression identified five predictors from the items of scores better associated with higher death risk, with a C-index of 0.83 (95%CI 0.79-0.86), including higher platelet (HR = 1.85, 95% CI 1.59-2.16), invasive ventilation (HR = 1.40, 1.26-1.55), pupillary light reflex (HR = 1.31, 95% CI 1.22-1.42) scores, lower pH (HR 0.89, 0.84-0.94), and extreme PaO2 (HR 2.60, 95% CI 1.61-4.19 for the 1st quantile vs. 4th quantile) scores. Conclusions: Performances of the three scores in predicting PICU mortality are comparable, and five predictors were identified with better prediction to PICU mortality in Chinese patients.

Dataset Information

Simultaneous Prediction of New Morbidity, Mortality, and Survival Without New Morbidity From Pediatric Intensive Care: A New Paradigm for Outcomes Assessment.

Publications

Simultaneous Prediction of New Morbidity, Mortality, and Survival Without New Morbidity From Pediatric Intensive Care: A New Paradigm for Outcomes Assessment.

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