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A nomogram to predict disease-free survival after surgical resection of GIST.

ABSTRACT: Gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GISTs) are the most common mesenchymal tumors of the gastrointestinal tract. Adjuvant imatinib therapy has resulted in improved disease-free survival (DFS) following resection of primary GIST. The aim of our study was to create a nomogram to predict DFS following resection of GIST.Using a multi-institutional cohort of patients who underwent surgery for primary GIST at 7 academic hospitals in the USA and Canada between January 1998 and December 2012, a multivariable Cox proportional hazards model predicting DFS was created using backward stepwise selection. A nomogram to predict DFS following surgical resection of GIST was constructed with the variables selected in the multivariable model. We tested nomogram discrimination by calculating the C-statistic and compared the nomogram to four existing GIST prognostic stratification systems.A total of 365 patients who underwent surgery for primary GIST was included in the study. Using backward stepwise selection, sex, tumor size, tumor site, and mitotic rate were selected for incorporation into the nomogram. The nomogram demonstrated superior discrimination compared to the NIH criteria, modified NIH criteria, and Memorial Sloan-Kettering Nomogram and had similar discrimination to the Miettinen criteria (C-statistic 0.77 vs 0.73, 0.71, 0.71, and 0.78, respectively).Four independent predictors of recurrence following surgery for primary GIST were used to create a nomogram to predict DFS. The nomogram stratified patients into prognostic groups and performed well on internal validation.

SUBMITTER: Bischof DA

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4659361 | biostudies-literature | 2014 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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A nomogram to predict disease-free survival after surgical resection of GIST.

Bischof Danielle A DA Kim Yuhree Y Behman Ramy R Karanicolas Paul J PJ Quereshy Fayez A FA Blazer Dan G DG Maithel Shishir K SK Gamblin T Clark TC Bauer Todd W TW Pawlik Timothy M TM

Journal of gastrointestinal surgery : official journal of the Society for Surgery of the Alimentary Tract 20140923 12

<h4>Background</h4>Gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GISTs) are the most common mesenchymal tumors of the gastrointestinal tract. Adjuvant imatinib therapy has resulted in improved disease-free survival (DFS) following resection of primary GIST. The aim of our study was to create a nomogram to predict DFS following resection of GIST.<h4>Method</h4>Using a multi-institutional cohort of patients who underwent surgery for primary GIST at 7 academic hospitals in the USA and Canada between January 199 ...[more]

PMID: 25245766

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Project description:BackgroundNeoadjuvant chemotherapy (NACT) is considered a standard treatment strategy for locally advanced triple negative breast cancer (TNBC). TNBC patients who achieve a pathologic complete response (pCR) are predicted to have a better prognosis while unfavorable chemo-sensitivity is still associated with a higher risk of disease relapse. The objective of this study was to construct a nomogram to predict disease-free survival (DFS) for TNBC patients following NACT.MethodsA total of 165 TNBC patients who underwent standard NACT and surgery were retrospectively reviewed, and data on their clinicopathological factors before and after NACT were collected. Independent prognostic factors for DFS were identified by Cox regression based on lower Akaike information criteria (AIC) and Bayesian information criterion (BIC). A nomogram to predict the 2-year and 5-year DFS following NACT for TNBC was constructed based on training cohort (n = 132) and validated by a validation cohort (n = 33).ResultsEither limited or full pCR (breast-only pCR, node-only pCR, or both-pCR) indicated significantly improved DFS and overall survival (OS) (p < 0.001). Lager residual tumor size (hazard ratio [HR] 1.175, p = 0.011) and the presence of lymphatic vessel invasion (LVI) (HR 3.168, p = 0.001) were identified as independent predictors of disease relapse in the training cohort. Five variables, including age, primary tumor size, histological grade, residual tumor size, and LVI were used to establish the nomogram. The C-index of the nomogram was 0.815, and calibration curves showed an acceptable consistency between the actual and nomogram-predicted 2-year and 5-year DFS. The proposed nomogram demonstrated superior predictive performance compared with Residual Cancer Burden (RCB) classification and the 8th American Joint Committee on Cancer Post Neoadjuvant Therapy Classification (AJCC ypTNM) staging system (area under the curve [AUC] for 2-year DFS: 0.870 vs. 0.758 vs. 0.711, respectively; AUC for 5-year DFS: 0.794 vs. 0.731 vs. 0.702, respectively) in the validation cohort.ConclusionsThe nomogram proposed in our study enabled to quantify the risk of disease relapse and demonstrated superior predictive performance than a survival predict instrument. It was an easy-to-use tool for clinicians to guide individualized surveillance of TNBC patients following standard NACT.

Project description:Background: To investigate whether the radiomics signature (Rad-score) of DCE-MRI images obtained in triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) patients before neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) is associated with disease-free survival (DFS). Develop and validate an intuitive nomogram based on radiomics signatures, MRI findings, and clinicopathological variables to predict DFS. Methods: Patients (n = 150) from two hospitals who received NAC from August 2011 to May 2017 were diagnosed with TNBC by pathological biopsy, and follow-up through May 2020 was retrospectively analysed. Patients from one hospital (n = 109) were used as the training group, and patients from the other hospital (n = 41) were used as the validation group. ROIs were drawn on 1.5 T MRI T1W enhancement images of the whole volume of the tumour obtained with a 3D slicer. Radiomics signatures predicting DFS were identified, optimal cut-off value for Rad-score was determined, and the associations between DFS and radiomics signatures, MRI findings, and clinicopathological variables were analysed. A nomogram was developed and validated for individualized DFS estimation. Results: The median follow-up time was 53.5 months, and 45 of 150 (30.0%) patients experienced recurrence and metastasis. The optimum cut-off value of the Rad-score was 0.2528, which stratified patients into high- and low-risk groups for DFS in the training group (p<0.001) and was validated in the external validation group. Multivariate analysis identified three independent indicators: multifocal/centric disease status, pCR status, and Rad-score. A nomogram based on these factors showed discriminatory ability, the C-index of the model was 0.834 (95% CI, 0.761-0.907) and 0.868 (95% CI, 0.787-949) in the training and the validation groups, respectively, which is better than clinicoradiological nomogram(training group: C-index = 0.726, 95% CI = 0.709-0.743; validation group: C-index = 0.774,95% CI = 0.743-0.805). Conclusion: The Rad-score derived from preoperative MRI features is an independent biomarker for DFS prediction in patients with TNBC to NAC, and the combined radiomics nomogram improved individualized DFS estimation.

Project description:Gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GISTs) are the most commonly diagnosed mesenchymal tumors of the gastrointestinal tract. The risk of recurrence following surgical resection of GISTs is typically reported from the date of surgery. However, disease-free survival (DFS) over time is dynamic and changes based on disease-free time already accumulated following surgery.To assess the comparative performance of established GIST recurrence risk prognostic scoring systems and to characterize conditional DFS following surgical resection of GISTs.A retrospective cohort study of 502 patients who underwent surgery for a primary, nonmetastatic GIST between January 1, 1998, and December 31, 2012, at 7 major academic cancer centers in the United States and Canada.Disease-free survival of the patients was classified according to 5 prognostic scoring systems, including the National Institutes of Health criteria, modified National Institutes of Health criteria, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center GIST nomogram, and American Joint Committee on Cancer gastric and nongastric categories. The concordance index (also known as the C statistic or the area under the receiver operating curve) of established GIST recurrence risk prognostic scoring systems. Conditional DFS estimates were calculated.Overall 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year DFS following resection of GISTs was 95%, 83%, and 74%, respectively. All the prognostic scoring systems had fair prognostic ability. For all tumor sites, the American Joint Committee on Cancer gastric category demonstrated the best discrimination (C?=?0.79). Using conditional DFS, the probability of remaining disease free for an additional 3 years given that a patient was disease free at 1 year, 3 years, and 5 years was 82%, 89%, and 92%, respectively. Patients with the highest initial recurrence risk demonstrated the greatest increase in conditional survival as time elapsed.Conditional DFS improves over time following resection of GISTs. This is valuable information about long-term prognosis to communicate to patients who are disease free after a period following surgery.

Project description:BackgroundBalloon dilation is a commonly used minimally invasive endourological treatment of ureteral stricture, but the postoperative recurrence rate is relatively high. And factors contributing to recurrence after treatment are poorly understood. Herein, we sought to develop a novel clinical nomogram to predict ureteral stricture-free survival in patients suffering from ureter stricture and performed balloon dilation.MethodsThe nomogram was established based on a retrospective analysis of 321 patients who received endoscopic balloon dilation alone for ureter strictures from January 2016 to January 2020 in Sun Yat-sen Memorial Hospital using the Cox regression model. Perioperative clinical data and disease outcomes were analyzed. The primary endpoint was the onset of ureteral re-stricture after ureter balloon dilation. Discrimination of the nomogram was assessed by the concordance index (C-index) and the calibration curve. The results were internally validated using bootstrap resampling.ResultsOverall, 321 patients with a median follow-up of 590 days were enrolled in the study, among which 97 patients (30.2%) developed recurrence of ureteral stricture during follow-up. Five variables remained significant predictors of ureteral re-stricture after multivariable analyses: stricture nature (P < 0.001), urinary nitrite (P = 0.041), CKD (P = 0.005), stent retention time (P < 0.001), and balloon size (P = 0.029). The calibration craves for the probability of 1-, 3-, and 5-years stricture-free survival (SFS) presented satisfied with the consistency of nomogram prediction and actual observation. The C-index of the model was 0.74 (95% CI 0.70-0.79).ConclusionsOur study developed the first nomogram to effectively predict stricture-free survival in patients suffering from ureter stricture after balloon dilation. It is helpful to identify the optimal patients with ureter stricture for balloon dilation and improve treatment outcomes. However, further external validation of the nomogram is warranted.

Project description:ImportanceAdrenocortical carcinoma (ACC) is a rare but aggressive endocrine tumor, and the prognostic factors associated with long-term outcomes after surgical resection remain poorly defined.ObjectivesTo define clinicopathological variables associated with recurrence-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS) after curative surgical resection of ACC and to propose nomograms for individual risk prediction.Design, setting, and participantsNomograms to predict RFS and OS after surgical resection of ACC were proposed using a multi-institutional cohort of patients who underwent curative-intent surgery for ACC at 13 major institutions in the United States between March 17, 1994, and December 22, 2014. The dates of our study analysis were April 15, 2015, to May 12, 2015.Main outcomes and measuresThe discriminative ability and calibration of the nomograms to predict RFS and OS were tested using C statistics, calibration plots, and Kaplan-Meier curves.ResultsIn total, 148 patients who underwent surgery for ACC were included in the study. The median patient age was 53 years, and 65.5% (97 of 148) of the patients were female. One-third of the patients (35.1% [52 of 148]) had a functional tumor, and the median tumor size was 11.2 cm. Most patients (77.7% [115 of 148]) underwent R0 resection, and 8.8% (13 of 148) of the patients had N1 disease. Using backward stepwise selection of clinically important variables with the Akaike information criterion, the following variables were incorporated in the prediction of RFS: tumor size of at least 12 cm (hazard ratio [HR], 3.00; 95% CI, 1.63-5.70; P < .001), positive nodal status (HR, 4.78; 95% CI, 1.47-15.50; P = .01), stage III/IV (HR, 1.80; 95% CI, 0.95-3.39; P = .07), cortisol-secreting tumor (HR, 2.38; 95% CI, 1.27-4.48; P = .01), and capsular invasion (HR, 1.96; 95% CI, 1.02-3.74; P = .04). Factors selected as predicting OS were tumor size of at least 12 cm (HR, 1.78; 95% CI, 1.00-3.17; P = .05), positive nodal status (HR, 5.89; 95% CI, 2.05-16.87; P = .001), and R1 margin (HR, 2.83; 95% CI, 1.51-5.30; P = .001). The discriminative ability and calibration of the nomograms revealed good predictive ability as indicated by the C statistics (0.74 for RFS and 0.70 for OS).Conclusions and relevanceIndependent predictors of survival and recurrence risk after curative-intent surgery for ACC were selected to create nomograms predicting RFS and OS. The nomograms were able to stratify patients into prognostic groups and performed well on internal validation.

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A nomogram to predict disease-free survival after surgical resection of GIST.

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A nomogram to predict disease-free survival after surgical resection of GIST.

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