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Aetiology-Specific Estimates of the Global and Regional Incidence and Mortality of Diarrhoeal Diseases Commonly Transmitted through Food.

ABSTRACT: Diarrhoeal diseases are major contributors to the global burden of disease, particularly in children. However, comprehensive estimates of the incidence and mortality due to specific aetiologies of diarrhoeal diseases are not available. The objective of this study is to provide estimates of the global and regional incidence and mortality of diarrhoeal diseases caused by nine pathogens that are commonly transmitted through foods.We abstracted data from systematic reviews and, depending on the overall mortality rates of the country, applied either a national incidence estimate approach or a modified Child Health Epidemiology Reference Group (CHERG) approach to estimate the aetiology-specific incidence and mortality of diarrhoeal diseases, by age and region. The nine diarrhoeal diseases assessed caused an estimated 1.8 billion (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1.1-3.3 billion) cases and 599,000 (95% UI 472,000-802,000) deaths worldwide in 2010. The largest number of cases were caused by norovirus (677 million; 95% UI 468-1,153 million), enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli (ETEC) (233 million; 95% UI 154-380 million), Shigella spp. (188 million; 95% UI 94-379 million) and Giardia lamblia (179 million; 95% UI 125-263); the largest number of deaths were caused by norovirus (213,515; 95% UI 171,783-266,561), enteropathogenic E. coli (121,455; 95% UI 103,657-143,348), ETEC (73,041; 95% UI 55,474-96,984) and Shigella (64,993; 95% UI 48,966-92,357). There were marked regional differences in incidence and mortality for these nine diseases. Nearly 40% of cases and 43% of deaths caused by these nine diarrhoeal diseases occurred in children under five years of age.Diarrhoeal diseases caused by these nine pathogens are responsible for a large disease burden, particularly in children. These aetiology-specific burden estimates can inform efforts to reduce diarrhoeal diseases caused by these nine pathogens commonly transmitted through foods.

SUBMITTER: Pires SM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4668836 | biostudies-literature | 2015

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Aetiology-Specific Estimates of the Global and Regional Incidence and Mortality of Diarrhoeal Diseases Commonly Transmitted through Food.

Pires Sara M SM Fischer-Walker Christa L CL Lanata Claudio F CF Devleesschauwer Brecht B Hall Aron J AJ Kirk Martyn D MD Duarte Ana S R AS Black Robert E RE Angulo Frederick J FJ

PloS one 20151203 12

<h4>Background</h4>Diarrhoeal diseases are major contributors to the global burden of disease, particularly in children. However, comprehensive estimates of the incidence and mortality due to specific aetiologies of diarrhoeal diseases are not available. The objective of this study is to provide estimates of the global and regional incidence and mortality of diarrhoeal diseases caused by nine pathogens that are commonly transmitted through foods.<h4>Methods and findings</h4>We abstracted data fr ...[more]

PMID: 26632843

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Project description:BackgroundThe Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015) provides an up-to-date analysis of the burden of diarrhoeal diseases. This study assesses cases, deaths, and aetiologies spanning the past 25 years and informs the changing picture of diarrhoeal disease worldwide.MethodsWe estimated diarrhoeal mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm), a modelling platform shared across most causes of death in the GBD 2015 study. We modelled diarrhoeal morbidity, including incidence and prevalence, using a meta-regression platform called DisMod-MR. We estimated aetiologies for diarrhoeal diseases using a counterfactual approach that incorporates the aetiology-specific risk of diarrhoeal disease and the prevalence of the aetiology in diarrhoea episodes. We used the Socio-demographic Index, a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility, to assess trends in diarrhoeal mortality. The two leading risk factors for diarrhoea-childhood malnutrition and unsafe water, sanitation, and hygiene-were used in a decomposition analysis to establish the relative contribution of changes in diarrhoea disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs).FindingsGlobally, in 2015, we estimate that diarrhoea was a leading cause of death among all ages (1·31 million deaths, 95% uncertainty interval [95% UI] 1·23 million to 1·39 million), as well as a leading cause of DALYs because of its disproportionate impact on young children (71·59 million DALYs, 66·44 million to 77·21 million). Diarrhoea was a common cause of death among children under 5 years old (499 000 deaths, 95% UI 447 000-558 000). The number of deaths due to diarrhoea decreased by an estimated 20·8% (95% UI 15·4-26·1) from 2005 to 2015. Rotavirus was the leading cause of diarrhoea deaths (199 000, 95% UI 165 000-241 000), followed by Shigella spp (164 300, 85 000-278 700) and Salmonella spp (90 300, 95% UI 34 100-183 100). Among children under 5 years old, the three aetiologies responsible for the most deaths were rotavirus, Cryptosporidium spp, and Shigella spp. Improvements in safe water and sanitation have decreased diarrhoeal DALYs by 13·4%, and reductions in childhood undernutrition have decreased diarrhoeal DALYs by 10·0% between 2005 and 2015.InterpretationAt the global level, deaths due to diarrhoeal diseases have decreased substantially in the past 25 years, although progress has been faster in some countries than others. Diarrhoea remains a largely preventable disease and cause of death, and continued efforts to improve access to safe water, sanitation, and childhood nutrition will be important in reducing the global burden of diarrhoea.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Project description:Neonatal herpes is a rare but potentially devastating condition with an estimated 60% fatality rate without treatment. Transmission usually occurs during delivery from mothers with herpes simplex virus type 1 (HSV-1) or type 2 (HSV-2) genital infection. However, the global burden has never been quantified to our knowledge. We developed a novel methodology for burden estimation and present first WHO global and regional estimates of the annual number of neonatal herpes cases during 2010-15.We applied previous estimates of HSV-1 and HSV-2 prevalence and incidence in women aged 15-49 years to 2010-15 birth rates to estimate infections during pregnancy. We then applied published risks of neonatal HSV transmission according to whether maternal infection was incident or prevalent with HSV-1 or HSV-2 to generate annual numbers of incident neonatal infections. We estimated the number of incident neonatal infections by maternal age, and we generated separate estimates for each WHO region, which were then summed to obtain global estimates of the number of neonatal herpes infections.Globally the overall rate of neonatal herpes was estimated to be about ten cases per 100?000 livebirths, equivalent to a best-estimate of 14?000 cases annually roughly (4000 for HSV-1; 10?000 for HSV-2). We estimated that the most neonatal herpes cases occurred in Africa, due to high maternal HSV-2 infection and high birth rates. HSV-1 contributed more cases than HSV-2 in the Americas, Europe, and Western Pacific. High rates of genital HSV-1 infection and moderate HSV-2 prevalence meant the Americas had the highest overall rate. However, our estimates are highly sensitive to the core assumptions, and considerable uncertainty exists for many settings given sparse underlying data.These neonatal herpes estimates mark the first attempt to quantify the global burden of this rare but serious condition. Better collection of primary data for neonatal herpes is crucially needed to reduce uncertainty and refine future estimates. These data are particularly important in resource-poor settings where we may have underestimated cases. Nevertheless, these first estimates suggest development of new HSV prevention measures such as vaccines could have additional benefits beyond reducing genital ulcer disease and HSV-associated HIV transmission, through prevention of neonatal herpes.World Health Organization.

Project description:BACKGROUND:Quantifying sexually transmitted infection (STI) prevalence and incidence is important for planning interventions and advocating for resources. The World Health Organization (WHO) periodically estimates global and regional prevalence and incidence of four curable STIs: chlamydia, gonorrhoea, trichomoniasis and syphilis. METHODS AND FINDINGS:WHO's 2012 estimates were based upon literature reviews of prevalence data from 2005 through 2012 among general populations for genitourinary infection with chlamydia, gonorrhoea, and trichomoniasis, and nationally reported data on syphilis seroprevalence among antenatal care attendees. Data were standardized for laboratory test type, geography, age, and high risk subpopulations, and combined using a Bayesian meta-analytic approach. Regional incidence estimates were generated from prevalence estimates by adjusting for average duration of infection. In 2012, among women aged 15-49 years, the estimated global prevalence of chlamydia was 4.2% (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 3.7-4.7%), gonorrhoea 0.8% (0.6-1.0%), trichomoniasis 5.0% (4.0-6.4%), and syphilis 0.5% (0.4-0.6%); among men, estimated chlamydia prevalence was 2.7% (2.0-3.6%), gonorrhoea 0.6% (0.4-0.9%), trichomoniasis 0.6% (0.4-0.8%), and syphilis 0.48% (0.3-0.7%). These figures correspond to an estimated 131 million new cases of chlamydia (100-166 million), 78 million of gonorrhoea (53-110 million), 143 million of trichomoniasis (98-202 million), and 6 million of syphilis (4-8 million). Prevalence and incidence estimates varied by region and sex. CONCLUSIONS:Estimates of the global prevalence and incidence of chlamydia, gonorrhoea, trichomoniasis, and syphilis in adult women and men remain high, with nearly one million new infections with curable STI each day. The estimates highlight the urgent need for the public health community to ensure that well-recognized effective interventions for STI prevention, screening, diagnosis, and treatment are made more widely available. Improved estimation methods are needed to allow use of more varied data and generation of estimates at the national level.

Project description:BackgroundDiarrhoea is a leading cause of death and illness globally among children younger than 5 years. Mortality and short-term morbidity cause substantial burden of disease but probably underestimate the true effect of diarrhoea on population health. This underestimation is because diarrhoeal diseases can negatively affect early childhood growth, probably through enteric dysfunction and impaired uptake of macronutrients and micronutrients. We attempt to quantify the long-term sequelae associated with childhood growth impairment due to diarrhoea.MethodsWe used the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study framework and leveraged existing estimates of diarrhoea incidence, childhood undernutrition, and infectious disease burden to estimate the effect of diarrhoeal diseases on physical growth, including weight and height, and subsequent disease among children younger than 5 years. The burden of diarrhoea was measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), a composite metric of mortality and morbidity. We hypothesised that diarrhoea is negatively associated with three common markers of growth: weight-for-age, weight-for-height, and height-for-age Z-scores. On the basis of these undernutrition exposures, we applied a counterfactual approach to quantify the relative risk of infectious disease (subsequent diarrhoea, lower respiratory infection, and measles) and protein energy malnutrition morbidity and mortality per day of diarrhoea and quantified the burden of diarrhoeal disease due to these outcomes caused by undernutrition.FindingsDiarrhoea episodes are significantly associated with childhood growth faltering. We found that each day of diarrhoea was associated with height-for-age Z-score (-0·0033 [95% CI -0·0024 to -0·0041]; p=4·43 × 10-14), weight-for-age Z-score (-0·0077 [-0·0058 to -0·0097]; p=3·19 × 10-15), and weight-for-height Z-score (-0·0096 [-0·0067 to -0·0125]; p=7·78 × 10-11). After addition of the DALYs due to the long-term sequelae as a consequence of undernutrition, the burden of diarrhoeal diseases increased by 39·0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 33·0-46·6) and was responsible for 55 778 000 DALYs (95% UI 49 125 400-62 396 200) among children younger than 5 years in 2016. Among the 15 652 300 DALYs (95% UI 12 951 300-18 806 100) associated with undernutrition due to diarrhoeal episodes, more than 84·7% are due to increased risk of infectious disease, whereas the remaining 15·3% of long-term DALYs are due to increased prevalence of protein energy malnutrition. The burden of diarrhoea has decreased substantially since 1990, but progress has been greater in long-term (78·7% reduction [95% UI 69·3-85·5]) than in acute (70·4% reduction [95% UI 61·7-76·5]) DALYs.InterpretationDiarrhoea represents an even larger burden of disease than was estimated in the Global Burden of Disease Study. In order to adequately address the burden of its long-term sequelae, a renewed emphasis on controlling the risk of diarrhoea incidence may be required. This renewed effort can help further prevent the potential lifelong cost on child health, growth, and overall potential.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Project description:BackgroundTimely assessment of the burden of HIV/AIDS is essential for policy setting and programme evaluation. In this report from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we provide national estimates of levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART), and mortality for 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015.MethodsFor countries without high-quality vital registration data, we estimated prevalence and incidence with data from antenatal care clinics and population-based seroprevalence surveys, and with assumptions by age and sex on initial CD4 distribution at infection, CD4 progression rates (probability of progression from higher to lower CD4 cell-count category), on and off antiretroviral therapy (ART) mortality, and mortality from all other causes. Our estimation strategy links the GBD 2015 assessment of all-cause mortality and estimation of incidence and prevalence so that for each draw from the uncertainty distribution all assumptions used in each step are internally consistent. We estimated incidence, prevalence, and death with GBD versions of the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) and Spectrum software originally developed by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS). We used an open-source version of EPP and recoded Spectrum for speed, and used updated assumptions from systematic reviews of the literature and GBD demographic data. For countries with high-quality vital registration data, we developed the cohort incidence bias adjustment model to estimate HIV incidence and prevalence largely from the number of deaths caused by HIV recorded in cause-of-death statistics. We corrected these statistics for garbage coding and HIV misclassification.FindingsGlobal HIV incidence reached its peak in 1997, at 3·3 million new infections (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1-3·4 million). Annual incidence has stayed relatively constant at about 2·6 million per year (range 2·5-2·8 million) since 2005, after a period of fast decline between 1997 and 2005. The number of people living with HIV/AIDS has been steadily increasing and reached 38·8 million (95% UI 37·6-40·4 million) in 2015. At the same time, HIV/AIDS mortality has been declining at a steady pace, from a peak of 1·8 million deaths (95% UI 1·7-1·9 million) in 2005, to 1·2 million deaths (1·1-1·3 million) in 2015. We recorded substantial heterogeneity in the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS across countries. Although many countries have experienced decreases in HIV/AIDS mortality and in annual new infections, other countries have had slowdowns or increases in rates of change in annual new infections.InterpretationScale-up of ART and prevention of mother-to-child transmission has been one of the great successes of global health in the past two decades. However, in the past decade, progress in reducing new infections has been slow, development assistance for health devoted to HIV has stagnated, and resources for health in low-income countries have grown slowly. Achievement of the new ambitious goals for HIV enshrined in Sustainable Development Goal 3 and the 90-90-90 UNAIDS targets will be challenging, and will need continued efforts from governments and international agencies in the next 15 years to end AIDS by 2030.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and National Institute of Mental Health and National Institute on Aging, National Institutes of Health.

Project description:Acute diarrhoeal diseases remain a leading cause of global morbidity and mortality particularly among young children in resource-limited countries. Recent large studies utilizing case-control design, prospective sampling and more sensitive and broad diagnostic techniques have shed light on particular pathogens of importance and highlighted the previously under recognized impact of these infections on post-acute illness mortality and growth. Vaccination, particularly against rotavirus, has emerged as a key effective means of preventing significant morbidity and mortality from childhood diarrhoeal disease. Other candidate vaccines against leading diarrhoeal pathogens, such as enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli and Shigella spp., also hold significant promise in further ameliorating the burden of enteric infections in children. Large studies are also currently underway evaluating novel and potential easy-to-implement water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) preventive strategies. Given the ongoing global burden of this illness, the paucity of new advances in case management over the last several decades remains a challenge. The increasing recognition of post-acute illness mortality and growth impairment has highlighted the need for interventions that go beyond management of dehydration and electrolyte disturbances. The few trials of novel promising interventions such as probiotics have mainly been conducted in high-income settings. Trials of antimicrobials have also been primarily conducted in high-income settings or in travellers from high-income settings. Bloody diarrhoea has been shown to be a poor marker of potentially treatable bacterial enteritis, and rising antimicrobial resistance has also made empiric antimicrobial therapy more challenging in many settings. Novel effective and sustainable interventions and diagnostic strategies are clearly needed to help improve case management. Diarrhoeal disease and other enteric infections remain an unmet challenge in global child health. Most promising recent developments have been focused around preventive measures, in particular vaccination. Further advances in prevention and case management including the possible use of targeted antimicrobial treatment are also required to fully address this critical burden on child health and human potential.

Project description:BackgroundDiarrhoeal diseases are important causes of disability and mortality being one of the main causes of mortality in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). One of the largest and wealthiest African countries, DRC has been for long subjected to continuous political and economic instability, conflicts and disease outbreaks. This study aimed to address the knowledge gap in understanding how prevalence, mortality and burden of diseases in DRC changed over time and examine the influence of specific factors in these disease-related outcomes.MethodsA time-series analysis of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 estimates was performed to describe prevalence, years lived with disabilities (YLDs) and mortality due to diarrhoeal diseases, by age-group and sex, between 1990-2019 in DRC. The contribution of water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) and child malnutrition risk factors to these outcomes was also analysed. Piecewise regression analysis was used to assess trends over time.ResultsThe overall age-standardised prevalence of diarrhoeal diseases for both sexes in DRC was 1350.84 (UI:1240.16-1461.62) cases per 100,000 people in 1990. The prevalence increased until 2019, also fuelled by the movement of Rwandan refugees to DRC and First/Second Congo wars between 1996-2003. Age-standardised prevalence and mortality were consistently higher in males, compared to females, decreasing by 42% and 54%, respectively, between 1990 and 2019. Overall prevalence was also usually higher in over 70 years old, except between 1998-2003 when mortality in under five years old was the highest. Unsafe water sources and child wasting among under five years old were the main contributors to YLDs and deaths associated to diarrhoeal diseases in DRC.ConclusionDiarrhoeal diseases are important and preventable causes of disability and mortality in DRC. National measures of surveillance and cost-effective interventions targeting the identified risk groups could be effective in reducing its prevalence and associated burden.

Dataset Information

Aetiology-Specific Estimates of the Global and Regional Incidence and Mortality of Diarrhoeal Diseases Commonly Transmitted through Food.

Publications

Aetiology-Specific Estimates of the Global and Regional Incidence and Mortality of Diarrhoeal Diseases Commonly Transmitted through Food.

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