Dataset Information

Monitoring Network Confirms Land Use Change is a Substantial Component of the Forest Carbon Sink in the eastern United States.

ABSTRACT: Quantifying forest carbon (C) stocks and stock change within a matrix of land use (LU) and LU change is a central component of large-scale forest C monitoring and reporting practices prescribed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Using a region-wide, repeated forest inventory, forest C stocks and stock change by pool were examined by LU categories. In eastern US forests, LU change is a substantial component of C sink strength (~37% of forest sink strength) only secondary to that of C accumulation in forests remaining forest where their comingling with other LUs does not substantially reduce sink strength. The strongest sinks of forest C were study areas not completely dominated by forests, even when there was some loss of forest to agriculture/settlement/other LUs. Long-term LU planning exercises and policy development that seeks to maintain and/or enhance regional C sinks should explicitly recognize the importance of maximizing non-forest to forest LU changes and not overlook management and conservation of forests located in landscapes not currently dominated by forests.

SUBMITTER: Woodall CW

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4671014 | biostudies-literature | 2015 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Monitoring Network Confirms Land Use Change is a Substantial Component of the Forest Carbon Sink in the eastern United States.

Woodall C W CW Walters B F BF Coulston J W JW D'Amato A W AW Domke G M GM Russell M B MB Sowers P A PA

Scientific reports 20151207

Quantifying forest carbon (C) stocks and stock change within a matrix of land use (LU) and LU change is a central component of large-scale forest C monitoring and reporting practices prescribed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Using a region-wide, repeated forest inventory, forest C stocks and stock change by pool were examined by LU categories. In eastern US forests, LU change is a substantial component of C sink strength (~37% of forest sink strength) only secondary to ...[more]

PMID: 26639409

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Project description:BackgroundForests provide the largest terrestrial sink of carbon (C). However, these C stocks are threatened by forest land conversion. Land use change has global impacts and is a critical component when studying C fluxes, but it is not always fully considered in C accounting despite being a major contributor to emissions. An urgent need exists among decision-makers to identify the likelihood of forest conversion to other land uses and factors affecting C loss. To help address this issue, we conducted our research in California, Colorado, Georgia, New York, Texas, and Wisconsin. The objectives were to (1) model the probability of forest conversion and C stocks dynamics using USDA Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data and (2) create wall-to-wall maps showing estimates of the risk of areas to convert from forest to non-forest. We used two modeling approaches: a machine learning algorithm (random forest) and generalized mixed-effects models. Explanatory variables for the models included ecological attributes, topography, census data, forest disturbances, and forest conditions. Model predictions and Landsat spectral information were used to produce wall-to-wall probability maps of forest change using Google Earth Engine.ResultsDuring the study period (2000-2017), 3.4% of the analyzed FIA plots transitioned from forest to mixed or non-forested conditions. Results indicate that the change in land use from forests is more likely with increasing human population and housing growth rates. Furthermore, non-public forests showed a higher probability of forest change compared to public forests. Areas closer to cities and coastal areas showed a higher risk of transition to non-forests. Out of the six states analyzed, Colorado had the highest risk of conversion and the largest amount of aboveground C lost. Natural forest disturbances were not a major predictor of land use change.ConclusionsLand use change is accelerating globally, causing a large increase in C emissions. Our results will help policy-makers prioritize forest management activities and land use planning by providing a quantitative framework that can enhance forest health and productivity. This work will also inform climate change mitigation strategies by understanding the role that land use change plays in C emissions.

Dataset Information

Monitoring Network Confirms Land Use Change is a Substantial Component of the Forest Carbon Sink in the eastern United States.

Publications

Monitoring Network Confirms Land Use Change is a Substantial Component of the Forest Carbon Sink in the eastern United States.

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