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A Copula Based Approach for Design of Multivariate Random Forests for Drug Sensitivity Prediction.

ABSTRACT: Modeling sensitivity to drugs based on genetic characterizations is a significant challenge in the area of systems medicine. Ensemble based approaches such as Random Forests have been shown to perform well in both individual sensitivity prediction studies and team science based prediction challenges. However, Random Forests generate a deterministic predictive model for each drug based on the genetic characterization of the cell lines and ignores the relationship between different drug sensitivities during model generation. This application motivates the need for generation of multivariate ensemble learning techniques that can increase prediction accuracy and improve variable importance ranking by incorporating the relationships between different output responses. In this article, we propose a novel cost criterion that captures the dissimilarity in the output response structure between the training data and node samples as the difference in the two empirical copulas. We illustrate that copulas are suitable for capturing the multivariate structure of output responses independent of the marginal distributions and the copula based multivariate random forest framework can provide higher accuracy prediction and improved variable selection. The proposed framework has been validated on genomics of drug sensitivity for cancer and cancer cell line encyclopedia database.

SUBMITTER: Haider S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4684346 | biostudies-literature | 2015

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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A Copula Based Approach for Design of Multivariate Random Forests for Drug Sensitivity Prediction.

Haider Saad S Rahman Raziur R Ghosh Souparno S Pal Ranadip R

PloS one 20151210 12

Modeling sensitivity to drugs based on genetic characterizations is a significant challenge in the area of systems medicine. Ensemble based approaches such as Random Forests have been shown to perform well in both individual sensitivity prediction studies and team science based prediction challenges. However, Random Forests generate a deterministic predictive model for each drug based on the genetic characterization of the cell lines and ignores the relationship between different drug sensitivit ...[more]

PMID: 26658256

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Project description:BackgroundClinical research and medical practice can be advanced through the prediction of an individual's health state, trajectory, and responses to treatments. However, the majority of current clinical risk prediction models are based on regression approaches or machine learning algorithms that are static, rather than dynamic. To benefit from the increasing emergence of large, heterogeneous data sets, such as electronic health records (EHRs), novel tools to support improved clinical decision making through methods for individual-level risk prediction that can handle multiple variables, their interactions, and time-varying values are necessary.MethodsWe introduce a novel dynamic approach to clinical risk prediction for survival, longitudinal, and multivariate (SLAM) outcomes, called random forest for SLAM data analysis (RF-SLAM). RF-SLAM is a continuous-time, random forest method for survival analysis that combines the strengths of existing statistical and machine learning methods to produce individualized Bayes estimates of piecewise-constant hazard rates. We also present a method-agnostic approach for time-varying evaluation of model performance.ResultsWe derive and illustrate the method by predicting sudden cardiac arrest (SCA) in the Left Ventricular Structural (LV) Predictors of Sudden Cardiac Death (SCD) Registry. We demonstrate superior performance relative to standard random forest methods for survival data. We illustrate the importance of the number of preceding heart failure hospitalizations as a time-dependent predictor in SCA risk assessment.ConclusionsRF-SLAM is a novel statistical and machine learning method that improves risk prediction by incorporating time-varying information and accommodating a large number of predictors, their interactions, and missing values. RF-SLAM is designed to easily extend to simultaneous predictions of multiple, possibly competing, events and/or repeated measurements of discrete or continuous variables over time.Trial registrationLV Structural Predictors of SCD Registry (clinicaltrials.gov, NCT01076660), retrospectively registered 25 February 2010.

Project description:BackgroundDrug sensitivity prediction and drug responsive biomarker selection on high-throughput genomic data is a critical step in drug discovery. Many computational methods have been developed to serve this purpose including several deep neural network models. However, the modular relations among genomic features have been largely ignored in these methods. To overcome this limitation, the role of the gene co-expression network on drug sensitivity prediction is investigated in this study.MethodsIn this paper, we first introduce a network-based method to identify representative features for drug response prediction by using the gene co-expression network. Then, two graph-based neural network models are proposed and both models integrate gene network information directly into neural network for outcome prediction. Next, we present a large-scale comparative study among the proposed network-based methods, canonical prediction algorithms (i.e., Elastic Net, Random Forest, Partial Least Squares Regression, and Support Vector Regression), and deep neural network models for drug sensitivity prediction. All the source code and processed datasets in this study are available at https://github.com/compbiolabucf/drug-sensitivity-prediction .ResultsIn the comparison of different feature selection methods and prediction methods on a non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) cell line RNA-seq gene expression dataset with 50 different drug treatments, we found that (1) the network-based feature selection method improves the prediction performance compared to Pearson correlation coefficients; (2) Random Forest outperforms all the other canonical prediction algorithms and deep neural network models; (3) the proposed graph-based neural network models show better prediction performance compared to deep neural network model; (4) the prediction performance is drug dependent and it may relate to the drug's mechanism of action.ConclusionsNetwork-based feature selection method and prediction models improve the performance of the drug response prediction. The relations between the genomic features are more robust and stable compared to the correlation between each individual genomic feature and the drug response in high dimension and low sample size genomic datasets.

Dataset Information

A Copula Based Approach for Design of Multivariate Random Forests for Drug Sensitivity Prediction.

Publications

A Copula Based Approach for Design of Multivariate Random Forests for Drug Sensitivity Prediction.

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