Dataset Information

Development and validation of an ankle brachial index risk model for the prediction of cardiovascular events.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:The ankle brachial index (ABI) is related to risk of cardiovascular events independent of the Framingham risk score (FRS). The aim of this study was to develop and evaluate a risk model for cardiovascular events incorporating the ABI and FRS. DESIGN:An analysis of participant data from 18 cohorts in which 24,375 men and 20,377 women free of coronary heart disease had ABI measured and were followed up for events. METHODS:Subjects were divided into a development and internal validation dataset and an external validation dataset. Two models, comprising FRS and FRS?+?ABI, were fitted for the primary outcome of major coronary events. RESULTS:In predicting events in the external validation dataset, C-index for the FRS was 0.672 (95% CI 0.599 to 0.737) in men and 0.578 (95% CI 0.492 to 0.661) in women. The FRS?+?ABI led to a small increase in C-index in men to 0.685 (95% CI 0.612 to 0.749) and large increase in women to 0.690 (95% CI 0.605 to 0.764) with net reclassification improvement (NRI) of 4.3% (95% CI 0.0 to 7.6%, p?=?0.050) and 9.6% (95% CI 6.1 to 16.4%, p?

SUBMITTER: Fowkes FG

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4685459 | biostudies-literature | 2014 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Development and validation of an ankle brachial index risk model for the prediction of cardiovascular events.

Fowkes F G R FG Murray G D GD Butcher I I Folsom A R AR Hirsch A T AT Couper D J DJ Debacker G G Kornitzer M M Newman A B AB Sutton-Tyrrell K C KC Cushman M M Lee A J AJ Price J F JF D'Agostino R B RB Murabito J M JM Norman Pe P Masaki K H KH Bouter L M LM Heine R J RJ Stehouwer C D A CD McDermott M M MM Stoffers H E J H HE Knottnerus J A JA Ogren M M Hedblad B B Koenig W W Meisinger C C Cauley J A JA Franco Oh O Hunink M G M MG Hofman A A Witteman J C JC Criqui M H MH Langer R D RD Hiatt W R WR Hamman R F RF

European journal of preventive cardiology 20131223 3

<h4>Background</h4>The ankle brachial index (ABI) is related to risk of cardiovascular events independent of the Framingham risk score (FRS). The aim of this study was to develop and evaluate a risk model for cardiovascular events incorporating the ABI and FRS.<h4>Design</h4>An analysis of participant data from 18 cohorts in which 24,375 men and 20,377 women free of coronary heart disease had ABI measured and were followed up for events.<h4>Methods</h4>Subjects were divided into a development an ...[more]

PMID: 24367001

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Project description:Prediction models to identify healthy individuals at high risk of cardiovascular disease have limited accuracy. A low ankle brachial index (ABI) is an indicator of atherosclerosis and has the potential to improve prediction.To determine if the ABI provides information on the risk of cardiovascular events and mortality independently of the Framingham risk score (FRS) and can improve risk prediction.Relevant studies were identified. A search of MEDLINE (1950 to February 2008) and EMBASE (1980 to February 2008) was conducted using common text words for the term ankle brachial index combined with text words and Medical Subject Headings to capture prospective cohort designs. Review of reference lists and conference proceedings, and correspondence with experts was conducted to identify additional published and unpublished studies.Studies were included if participants were derived from a general population, ABI was measured at baseline, and individuals were followed up to detect total and cardiovascular mortality.Prespecified data on individuals in each selected study were extracted into a combined data set and an individual participant data meta-analysis was conducted on individuals who had no previous history of coronary heart disease.Sixteen population cohort studies fulfilling the inclusion criteria were included. During 480,325 person-years of follow-up of 24,955 men and 23,339 women, the risk of death by ABI had a reverse J-shaped distribution with a normal (low risk) ABI of 1.11 to 1.40. The 10-year cardiovascular mortality in men with a low ABI (< or = 0.90) was 18.7% (95% confidence interval [CI], 13.3%-24.1%) and with normal ABI (1.11-1.40) was 4.4% (95% CI, 3.2%-5.7%) (hazard ratio [HR], 4.2; 95% CI, 3.3-5.4). Corresponding mortalities in women were 12.6% (95% CI, 6.2%-19.0%) and 4.1% (95% CI, 2.2%-6.1%) (HR, 3.5; 95% CI, 2.4-5.1). The HRs remained elevated after adjusting for FRS (2.9 [95% CI, 2.3-3.7] for men vs 3.0 [95% CI, 2.0-4.4] for women). A low ABI (< or = 0.90) was associated with approximately twice the 10-year total mortality, cardiovascular mortality, and major coronary event rate compared with the overall rate in each FRS category. Inclusion of the ABI in cardiovascular risk stratification using the FRS would result in reclassification of the risk category and modification of treatment recommendations in approximately 19% of men and 36% of women.Measurement of the ABI may improve the accuracy of cardiovascular risk prediction beyond the FRS.

Project description:Ankle-brachial index (ABI) and brachial-ankle pulse wave velocity (baPWV) are used as non-invasive indicators for detecting atherosclerosis and arterial stiffness, two well-known predictors of mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). ABI and baPWV have independent associations with mortality; however, their joint and interactive effects on mortality have not been assessed in patients with T2DM. This work aims to evaluate the independent, joint, and interactive associations of ABI and baPWV with all-cause and expanded cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality in patients with T2DM. This observational study included 2160 patients with T2DM enlisted in the Diabetes Care Management Program database of China Medical University Hospital from 2001 to 2016 and then followed their death status until August 2021. Cox proportional hazard models were used to evaluate the independent, joint, and interactive effects of ABI and baPWV on the risk of all-cause and expanded CVD mortality. A total of 474 patient deaths occurred after a mean follow-up of 8.4 years, and 268 of which were attributed to cardiovascular events. Abnormal ABI (≤ 0.9) and highest baPWV quartile were independently associated with increased risks of all-cause [ABI: hazard ratio (HR) 1.67, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.30-2.11; baPWV: 1.63, 1.16-2.27] and expanded CVD mortality (ABI: 2.21, 1.62-3.02; baPWV: 1.75, 1.09-2.83). The combination of abnormal ABI (≤ 0.9) and highest baPWV quartile was associated with a significantly higher risk of all-cause (4.51, 2.50-8.11) and expanded CVD mortality (9.74, 4.21-22.51) compared with that of the combination of normal ABI and lowest baPWV quartile. Significant interactions were observed between ABI and baPWV in relation to all-cause and expand CVD mortality (both p for interaction < 0.001). Through their independent, joint, and interactive effects, ABI and baPWV are significant parameters that can improve the prediction of all-cause and expanded CVD mortality in patients with T2DM and help identify high-risk patients who may benefit from diabetes care.

Dataset Information

Development and validation of an ankle brachial index risk model for the prediction of cardiovascular events.

Publications

Development and validation of an ankle brachial index risk model for the prediction of cardiovascular events.

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