Secular Trends of Breast Cancer in China, South Korea, Japan and the United States: Application of the Age-Period-Cohort Analysis.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Wang Z
PROVIDER: S-EPMC4690929 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:Esophageal cancer is a prevalent and often fatal malignancy all over the world, with China and Japan bearing a disproportionately high burden. Consequently, we explored and compared the long-term changes in esophageal cancer mortality in China and Japan from 1990 to 2019 to see if there were any etiological clues. From 1990 to 2019, data on mortality in China and Japan were gathered from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (GBD 2019). The age-period-cohort (APC) model was utilized to evaluate the effects of age, period, and cohort. Between 1990 and 2019, the age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) for esophageal cancer fell in both nations, with China showing a tremendous reduction after 2005. The overall net drifts per year were more impressive in China (-5.22% [95% CI, -5.77 to -4.68] for females, -1.98% [-2.22 to -1.74] for males) than in Japan (-0.50% [-0.91 to -0.08] for females, -1.86% [-2.12 to -1.59] for males), and the local drift values in both countries were less than zero in all age groups for both sexes. The longitudinal age curves of esophageal cancer mortality increased as age advances and the sex disparity gradually exacerbates with age. The period and cohort effects were uncovered to have similar declining patterns for both sexes in both nations; however, the improvement of cohort effects for China's younger generation has stagnated. The ASMRs, period effects, and cohort effects have decreased for both countries and sexes over the 1990-2019 period. The decline in cohort effects for China's younger generation has plateaued, possibly due to the rising rates of smoking and obesity among Chinese youngsters. Comprehensive population-level treatments aimed at smoking cessation, obesity prevention, and gastrointestinal endoscopy screening should be carried out immediately, particularly for men and older birth cohorts at a higher risk of esophageal cancer.
| S-EPMC9408772 | biostudies-literature
Project description:We aimed to describe the infectious disease (ID) mortality trends and evaluate age-period-cohort (APC) effects on ID mortality in Korea. Using cause-of-death and census population estimates data from 1983-2017, age-standardized ID mortality trends were investigated by joinpoint regression analysis. The APC effects on ID mortality were estimated using intrinsic estimator models. The age effect showed a J-shaped concave upward curve. Old age, especially ≥70 years, was a critical factor for ID deaths. Similar to the W-shaped period curve, ID mortality rapidly decreased due to economic development and the expansion of health coverage in the 1980s, decelerated with increasing inequality, surged due to the 1997 economic crisis, and has gradually increased since the mid-2000s. The cohort effect showed an inverted U-shape. The increasing cohort effect due to the deterioration of living standards led to a decreasing trend after the independence of Korea. Notwithstanding the slowdown during the 1950-1953 Korean War, educational expansion, economic growth, fertility reduction, and the improvement of ID-related policies might have led to a continued decline among the cohorts born since the 1960s. Diverse socioeconomic events may have influenced ID mortality trends in Korea via period and cohort effects. Policies to reduce the growing burden of ID deaths should be further improved.
| S-EPMC7908575 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectiveTo examine secular trends in diabetes-related preventable hospitalizations among adults with diabetes in the U.S. from 1998 to 2006.Research design and methodsWe used nationally representative data from the National Inpatient Sample to identify diabetes-related preventable hospitalizations. Based on the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality's Prevention Quality Indicators, we considered that hospitalizations associated with the following four conditions were preventable: uncontrolled diabetes, short-term complications, long-term complications, and lower-extremity amputations. Estimates of the number of adults with diabetes were obtained from the National Health Interview Survey. Rates of hospitalizations among adults with diabetes were derived and tested for trends.ResultsAge-adjusted rates for overall diabetes-related preventable hospitalizations per 100 adults with diabetes declined 27%, from 5.2 to 3.8 during 1998-2006 (P(trend) < 0.01). This rate decreased significantly for all but not for short-term complication (58% for uncontrolled diabetes, 37% for lower-extremity amputations, 23% for long-term complications [all P < 0.01], and 15% for the short-term complication [P = 0.18]). Stratified by age-group and condition, the decline was significant for all age-condition groups (all P < 0.05) except short-term complications (P = 0.33) and long-term complications (P = 0.08) for the age-group 18-44 years. The decrease was significant for all sex-condition combination subgroups (all P < 0.01).ConclusionsWe found a decrease in diabetes-related preventable hospitalizations in the U.S. from 1998 to 2006. This trend could reflect improvements in quality of primary care for individuals with diabetes.
| S-EPMC2699731 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Postoperative adhesions are common after surgery and can cause small-bowel obstruction (SBO) and require adhesiolysis. The impact that laparoscopy and other surgical advances have had on rates of SBO and adhesiolysis remains controversial. This study examines trends in discharges from US hospitals for SBO and adhesiolysis from 1988 to 2007.We performed an analysis of secular trends for SBO and adhesiolysis, using the National Hospital Discharge Survey. Spearman correlation coefficients were calculated to assess trends over time.Rates of SBO were stable over time (? = .140; P = .28). Adhesiolysis rates were stable over time (? = -.18; P = .17), although there were significant downward trends in patients older than age 65 (? = -.55; P = .01) and age 15 to 44 (? = -.84; P < .01).There has been no significant change in overall rates of SBO or adhesiolysis from 1988 to 2007. For adhesiolysis, there were decreasing trends when stratified by age. Further research is required to understand the factors associated with adhesion-related complications.
| S-EPMC3419344 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundDocumenting trends in risk factors among individuals with cardiovascular disease (CVD) may inform policy and secondary prevention initiatives.ObjectivesThis study aimed to examine 20-year trends in risk profiles among U.S. adults with CVD and any racial/ethnic disparities.MethodsIn this serial cross-sectional analysis of 6,335 adults with self-reported CVD participating in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey from 1999 through 2018, we calculated age- and sex-adjusted proportions with ideal risk factor attainment.ResultsThe proportions with ideal hemoglobin A1c (<7% if diabetes or <5.7% if not) and body mass index (<25 kg/m2) worsened from 58.7% (95% CI: 55.2%-62.1%) to 52.4% (95% CI: 48.2%-56.6%) and 23.9% (95% CI: 21.5%-26.4%) to 18.2% (95% CI: 15.6%-21.2%) from 1999-2002 to 2015-2018, respectively. After initial improvement, the proportion with blood pressure <130/80 mm Hg declined from 52.1% (95% CI: 48.9%-55.4%) in 2007-2010 to 48.6% (95% CI: 44.2%-52.7%) in 2015-2018. The proportion with non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels <100 mg/dL increased from 7.3% (95% CI: 5.6%-9.5%) in 1999-2002 to 30.3% (95% CI: 25.7%-35.5%) in 2015-2018. The proportions with ideal smoking, physical activity, and diet profiles were unchanged over time, and in 2015-2018 were 77.8% (95% CI: 73.6%-81.4%), 22.4% (95% CI: 19.3%-25.9%), and 1.3% (95% CI: 0.7%-2.6%). Worsening trends were observed in Hispanic adults for cholesterol, and in Black adults for smoking (both P < 0.05 for nonlinear and linear trends). Persistently lower ideal risk factor attainment was observed for blood pressure in Black adults and for hemoglobin A1c levels in Asian adults compared with White adults (all P < 0.05 for differences).ConclusionsTrends in cardiovascular risk factor profiles in U.S. adults with CVD were suboptimal from 1999 through 2018, with persistent racial/ethnic disparities.
| S-EPMC9618328 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Reproductive system cancer is an important cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide which threatens women's health and lives. Breast, cervical, and ovarian cancer have the higher incidence and mortality among a series of gynecology malignant tumor. We aimed to compare and assess the temporal trends of common female malignances on breast, cervical, and ovarian cancer mortality in developed regions of Asia including Japan, Republic of Korea, and Singapore and analyze the detached effects of chronological age, time period, and birth cohort by age-period-cohort (APC) analysis.The mortality data for these three cancers were collected from the WHO Mortality Database in Japan, Republic of Korea, and Singapore from 1954 to 2013, from 1989 to 2013, and from 1964 to 2013, respectively. We fitted an age-period-cohort model and intrinsic estimator method to estimate the independent effect of each age, time period, and birth cohort on cancer mortality and describe the secular changes in three Asian countries.For the overall trends of breast cancer, the ASMRs of breast cancer showed a general increasing trend among three countries during the study periods while the change pattern in Singapore was different from the rest of the two countries for cervical and ovarian cancer. By APC analysis, the three cancer mortality risks generally increased with age and decreased with birth cohort. For period effects of breast and ovarian cancer, increasing effects with time were observed; however, for period effects of cervical cancer, converse change pattern was presented among three countries.Our study shows that the ASMRs of breast, cervical, and ovarian cancer remain high in Singapore compared to Japan and Korea. Generally speaking, the mortality risk of three cancers increased with age, and period and cohort effects may collectively affect the common female malignances mortality for East Asian women.
| S-EPMC5884400 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES:Immunosuppressive medications are critical for maintenance of graft function in transplant recipients but can represent a substantial financial burden to patients and their insurance carriers. DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS:To determine whether availability of generic immunosuppressive medications starting in 2009 may have alleviated some of that burden, we used Medicare Part D prescription drug events between 2008 and 2013 to estimate the average annualized per-patient payments made by patients and Medicare in a large national sample of kidney, liver, and heart transplant recipients. Repeated measures linear regression was used to determine changes in payments over the study period. RESULTS:Medicare Part D payments for two commonly used immunosuppressive medications, tacrolimus and mycophenolic acid (including mycophenolate mofetil and mycophenolate sodium), decreased overall by 48%-67% across organs and drugs from 2008 to 2013, reflecting decreasing payments for brand and generic tacrolimus (21%-54%), and generic mycophenolate (72%-74%). Low-income subsidy payments, which are additional payments made under Medicare Part D, also decreased during the study period. Out-of-pocket payments by patients who did not receive the low-income subsidy decreased by more than those who did receive the low-income subsidy (63%-79% versus 24%-44%). CONCLUSIONS:The decline in payments by Medicare Part D and by transplant recipients for tacrolimus and mycophenolate between 2008 and 2013 suggests that the introduction of generic immunosuppressants during this period has resulted in substantial cost savings to Medicare and to patients, largely reflecting the transition from brand to generic products.
| S-EPMC6419280 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundAsthma imposes a large healthcare burden in China and the United States (US). However, the trends of asthma mortality and the relative risk factors have not been comparatively analyzed between the countries. The aim of this study was to compare the mortality and risk factors between China and the US.MethodsThe deaths, and mortality rates of asthma in China and the US during 1990-2019 were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. The age-period-cohort model was used to estimate these mortality rates based on a log-linear scale with additive age, period, and cohort effects. The population attributable fractions of risk factors for asthma were estimated.ResultsIn 1990-2019, the asthma mortality rate was higher in China than in the US. The crude and age-standardized asthma mortality rates trended downward in both China and the US from 1990 to 2019. The decline in mortality was more obvious in China. Mortality gap between the two countries was narrowing. A sex difference in asthma mortality was observed with higher mortality in males in China and females in the US. The age effects showed that mortality increased with age in adults older than 20 years, particularly in the elderly. Downward trends were generally observed in the period and cohort rate ratios in both countries, with China experiencing a more obvious decrease. Smoking and high body mass index (BMI) were the leading risk factors for asthma mortality in China and the US, respectively. Mortality attributable to occupational asthmagens and smoking decreased the most in China and the US, respectively.ConclusionsIn 1990-2019, the asthma mortality rate was higher in China than in the US; however, the mortality gap has narrowed. Mortality increased with age in adults. The improvements in asthma death risk with period and birth cohort were more obvious in China than in the US. Smoking, high BMI, and aging are major health problems associated with asthma control. The role of occupational asthmagens in asthma mortality underscores the importance of management and prevention of occupational asthma.
| S-EPMC10836907 | biostudies-literature
Project description:This study examines the roles of age, period, and cohort in influenza mortality trends over the years 1959-2016 in the United States. First, we use Lexis surfaces based on Serfling models to highlight influenza mortality patterns as well as to identify lingering effects of early-life exposure to specific influenza virus subtypes (e.g., H1N1, H3N2). Second, we use age-period-cohort (APC) methods to explore APC linear trends and identify changes in the slope of these trends (contrasts). Our analyses reveal a series of breakpoints where the magnitude and direction of birth cohort trends significantly change, mostly corresponding to years in which important antigenic drifts or shifts took place (i.e., 1947, 1957, 1968, and 1978). Whereas child, youth, and adult influenza mortality appear to be influenced by a combination of cohort- and period-specific factors, reflecting the interaction between the antigenic experience of the population and the evolution of the influenza virus itself, mortality patterns of the elderly appear to be molded by broader cohort factors. The latter would reflect the processes of physiological capital improvement in successive birth cohorts through secular changes in early-life conditions. Antigenic imprinting, cohort morbidity phenotype, and other mechanisms that can generate the observed cohort effects, including the baby boom, are discussed.
| S-EPMC6797638 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundDeath rates for the four major cancer sites (lung, breast, prostate, and colon and rectum) have declined steadily in the United States among persons aged 25-64 years since the early 1990s. We used national data to examine these trends in relation to educational attainment.MethodsWe calculated age-standardized death rates for each of the four cancers by level of education among 25- to 64-year-old non-Hispanic white and non-Hispanic black men and women for 1993 through 2001 using data on approximately 86% of US deaths from the National Center for Health Statistics, education level as recorded on the death certificate, and population data from the US Bureau of Census Current Population Survey. Annual percent changes in age-adjusted death rates were estimated using weighted log-linear regression models. All statistical tests were two-sided.ResultsDeath rates for each cancer decreased statistically significantly from 1993 to 2001 in people with at least 16 years of education in every sex and race stratum except lung cancer in black women, for whom death rates were stable. For example, colorectal cancer death rates among white men, black men, white women, and black women with at least 16 years of education decreased by 2.4% (P < .001), 4.8% (P = .011), 3.0% (P < .001), and 2.6% (P = .030) annually, respectively. By contrast, among people with less than 12 years of education, a statistically significant decrease in death rates from 1993 through 2001 was seen only for breast cancer in white women (1.4% per year; P = .029). Death rates among persons with less than 12 years of education over the same time interval increased for lung cancer in white women (2.4% per year; P < .001) and for colon cancer in black men (2.7% per year; P < .001) and were stable for the remaining race/sex/site strata. Temporal trends generally followed an educational gradient in which the slopes of the decreases in death rate became steeper with higher educational attainment.ConclusionThe recent declines in death rates from major cancers in the United States mainly reflect declines in more highly educated individuals.
| S-EPMC2467433 | biostudies-literature