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Are Clade Specific HIV Vaccines a Necessity? An Analysis Based on Mathematical Models.

ABSTRACT: As HIV-1 envelope immune responses are critical to vaccine related protection, most candidate HIV vaccines entering efficacy trials are based upon a clade specific design. This need for clade specific vaccine prototypes markedly reduces the implementation of potentially effective HIV vaccines. We utilized a mathematical model to determine the effectiveness of immediate roll-out of a non-clade matched vaccine with reduced efficacy compared to constructing clade specific vaccines, which would take considerable time to manufacture and test in safety and efficacy trials. We simulated the HIV epidemic in San Francisco (SF) and South Africa (SA) and projected effectiveness of three vaccination strategies: i) immediate intervention with a 20-40% vaccine efficacy (VE) non-matched vaccine, ii) delayed intervention by developing a 50% VE clade-specific vaccine, and iii) immediate intervention with a non-matched vaccine replaced by a clade-specific vaccine when developed. Immediate vaccination with a non-clade matched vaccine, even with reduced efficacy, would prevent thousands of new infections in SF and millions in SA over 30 years. Vaccination with 50% VE delayed for five years needs six and 12 years in SA to break-even with immediate 20 and 30% VE vaccination, respectively, while not able to surpass the impact of immediate 40% VE vaccination over 30 years. Replacing a 30% VE with a 50% VE vaccine after 5 years reduces the HIV acquisition by 5% compared to delayed vaccination. The immediate use of an HIV vaccine with reduced VE in high risk communities appears desirable over a short time line but higher VE should be the pursued to achieve strong long-term impact. Our analysis illustrates the importance of developing surrogate markers (correlates of protection) to allow bridging types of immunogenicity studies to support more rapid assessment of clade specific vaccines.

SUBMITTER: Dimitrov D

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4703729 | biostudies-literature | 2015 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Are Clade Specific HIV Vaccines a Necessity? An Analysis Based on Mathematical Models.

Dimitrov Dobromir D Kublin James G JG Ramsey Scott S Corey Lawrence L

EBioMedicine 20151105 12

As HIV-1 envelope immune responses are critical to vaccine related protection, most candidate HIV vaccines entering efficacy trials are based upon a clade specific design. This need for clade specific vaccine prototypes markedly reduces the implementation of potentially effective HIV vaccines. We utilized a mathematical model to determine the effectiveness of immediate roll-out of a non-clade matched vaccine with reduced efficacy compared to constructing clade specific vaccines, which would take ...[more]

PMID: 26844286

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Project description:Vaccines inducing pathogen-specific cell-mediated immunity are being developed using attenuated adenoviral (Ad) vectors. We report the results of two independent Phase I trials of similar replication-deficient Ad5 vaccines containing a near-consensus HIV-1 clade B gag transgene. Healthy HIV-uninfected adults were enrolled in two separate, multicenter, dose-escalating, blinded, placebo-controlled studies to assess the safety and immunogenicity of a three-dose homologous regimen of Ad5 and MRKAd5 HIV-1 gag vaccines given on day 1, week 4, and week 26. Adverse events were collected for 29 days following each intradeltoid injection. The primary immunogenicity endpoint was the proportion of subjects with a positive unfractionated Gag-specific IFN-gamma ELISPOT response measured 4 weeks after the last dose (week 30). Analyses were performed after combining data for each dose group from both protocols, stratifying by baseline Ad5 titers. Overall, 252 subjects were randomized to receive either vaccine or placebo, including 229 subjects (91%) who completed the study through week 30. Tolerability and immunogenicity did not appear to differ between the Ad5 and MRKAd5 vaccines. The frequency of injection-site reactions was dose dependent. Systemic adverse events were also dose dependent and more frequent in subjects with baseline Ad5 titers <200 versus > or =200, especially after the first dose. The percent of ELISPOT responders and the ELISPOT geometric means overall were significantly higher for all four vaccine doses studied compared to placebo, and were generally higher in vaccine recipients with baseline Ad5 titers <200 versus > or = 200. Ad5 titers increased after vaccination in a dose-dependent fashion. Both Ad5-vectored HIV-1 vaccines were generally well tolerated and induced cell-mediated immune responses against HIV Gag-peptides in the majority of healthy adults with baseline Ad5 titers <200. Preexistent and/or vaccine-induced immunity to the Ad5 vector may dampen the CMI response to HIV Gag.

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Are Clade Specific HIV Vaccines a Necessity? An Analysis Based on Mathematical Models.

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Are Clade Specific HIV Vaccines a Necessity? An Analysis Based on Mathematical Models.

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