Dataset Information

Model-Based Geostatistical Mapping of the Prevalence of Onchocerca volvulus in West Africa.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:The initial endemicity (pre-control prevalence) of onchocerciasis has been shown to be an important determinant of the feasibility of elimination by mass ivermectin distribution. We present the first geostatistical map of microfilarial prevalence in the former Onchocerciasis Control Programme in West Africa (OCP) before commencement of antivectorial and antiparasitic interventions. METHODS AND FINDINGS:Pre-control microfilarial prevalence data from 737 villages across the 11 constituent countries in the OCP epidemiological database were used as ground-truth data. These 737 data points, plus a set of statistically selected environmental covariates, were used in a Bayesian model-based geostatistical (B-MBG) approach to generate a continuous surface (at pixel resolution of 5 km x 5km) of microfilarial prevalence in West Africa prior to the commencement of the OCP. Uncertainty in model predictions was measured using a suite of validation statistics, performed on bootstrap samples of held-out validation data. The mean Pearson's correlation between observed and estimated prevalence at validation locations was 0.693; the mean prediction error (average difference between observed and estimated values) was 0.77%, and the mean absolute prediction error (average magnitude of difference between observed and estimated values) was 12.2%. Within OCP boundaries, 17.8 million people were deemed to have been at risk, 7.55 million to have been infected, and mean microfilarial prevalence to have been 45% (range: 2-90%) in 1975. CONCLUSIONS AND SIGNIFICANCE:This is the first map of initial onchocerciasis prevalence in West Africa using B-MBG. Important environmental predictors of infection prevalence were identified and used in a model out-performing those without spatial random effects or environmental covariates. Results may be compared with recent epidemiological mapping efforts to find areas of persisting transmission. These methods may be extended to areas where data are sparse, and may be used to help inform the feasibility of elimination with current and novel tools.

SUBMITTER: O'Hanlon SJ

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4714852 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Model-Based Geostatistical Mapping of the Prevalence of Onchocerca volvulus in West Africa.

O'Hanlon Simon J SJ Slater Hannah C HC Cheke Robert A RA Boatin Boakye A BA Coffeng Luc E LE Pion Sébastien D S SD Boussinesq Michel M Zouré Honorat G M HG Stolk Wilma A WA Basáñez María-Gloria MG

PLoS neglected tropical diseases 20160115 1

<h4>Background</h4>The initial endemicity (pre-control prevalence) of onchocerciasis has been shown to be an important determinant of the feasibility of elimination by mass ivermectin distribution. We present the first geostatistical map of microfilarial prevalence in the former Onchocerciasis Control Programme in West Africa (OCP) before commencement of antivectorial and antiparasitic interventions.<h4>Methods and findings</h4>Pre-control microfilarial prevalence data from 737 villages across t ...[more]

PMID: 26771545

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Project description:BackgroundSchistosomiasis is a water-based disease that is believed to affect over 200 million people with an estimated 97% of the infections concentrated in Africa. However, these statistics are largely based on population re-adjusted data originally published by Utroska and colleagues more than 20 years ago. Hence, these estimates are outdated due to large-scale preventive chemotherapy programs, improved sanitation, water resources development and management, among other reasons. For planning, coordination, and evaluation of control activities, it is essential to possess reliable schistosomiasis prevalence maps.MethodologyWe analyzed survey data compiled on a newly established open-access global neglected tropical diseases database (i) to create smooth empirical prevalence maps for Schistosoma mansoni and S. haematobium for individuals aged ? 20 years in West Africa, including Cameroon, and (ii) to derive country-specific prevalence estimates. We used Bayesian geostatistical models based on environmental predictors to take into account potential clustering due to common spatially structured exposures. Prediction at unobserved locations was facilitated by joint kriging.Principal findingsOur models revealed that 50.8 million individuals aged ? 20 years in West Africa are infected with either S. mansoni, or S. haematobium, or both species concurrently. The country prevalence estimates ranged between 0.5% (The Gambia) and 37.1% (Liberia) for S. mansoni, and between 17.6% (The Gambia) and 51.6% (Sierra Leone) for S. haematobium. We observed that the combined prevalence for both schistosome species is two-fold lower in Gambia than previously reported, while we found an almost two-fold higher estimate for Liberia (58.3%) than reported before (30.0%). Our predictions are likely to overestimate overall country prevalence, since modeling was based on children and adolescents up to the age of 20 years who are at highest risk of infection.Conclusion/significanceWe present the first empirical estimates for S. mansoni and S. haematobium prevalence at high spatial resolution throughout West Africa. Our prediction maps allow prioritizing of interventions in a spatially explicit manner, and will be useful for monitoring and evaluation of schistosomiasis control programs.

Project description:There is increasing interest to control or eradicate the major neglected tropical diseases. Accurate modelling of the geographic distributions of parasitic infections will be crucial to this endeavour. We used 664 community level infection prevalence data collated from the published literature in conjunction with eight environmental variables, altitude and population density, and a multivariate Bayesian generalized linear spatial model that allows explicit accounting for spatial autocorrelation and incorporation of uncertainty in input data and model parameters, to construct the first spatially-explicit map describing LF prevalence distribution in Africa. We also ran the best-fit model against predictions made by the HADCM3 and CCCMA climate models for 2050 to predict the likely distributions of LF under future climate and population changes. We show that LF prevalence is strongly influenced by spatial autocorrelation between locations but is only weakly associated with environmental covariates. Infection prevalence, however, is found to be related to variations in population density. All associations with key environmental/demographic variables appear to be complex and non-linear. LF prevalence is predicted to be highly heterogenous across Africa, with high prevalences (>20%) estimated to occur primarily along coastal West and East Africa, and lowest prevalences predicted for the central part of the continent. Error maps, however, indicate a need for further surveys to overcome problems with data scarcity in the latter and other regions. Analysis of future changes in prevalence indicates that population growth rather than climate change per se will represent the dominant factor in the predicted increase/decrease and spread of LF on the continent. We indicate that these results could play an important role in aiding the development of strategies that are best able to achieve the goals of parasite elimination locally and globally in a manner that may also account for the effects of future climate change on parasitic infection.

Project description:BackgroundIvermectin (IVM) has been used in Ghana for over two decades for onchocerciasis control. In recent years there have been reports of persistent microfilaridermias despite multiple treatments. This has necessitated a reexamination of its microfilaricidal and suppressive effects on reproduction in the adult female Onchocerca volvulus. In an initial study, we demonstrated the continued potent microfilaricidal effect of IVM. However, we also found communities in which the skin microfilarial repopulation rates at days 90 and 180 were much higher than expected. In this follow up study we have investigated the reproductive response of female worms to multiple treatments with IVM.Methods and findingsThe parasitological responses to IVM in two hundred and sixty-eight microfilaridermic subjects from nine communities that had received 10 to 19 annual doses of IVM treatment and one pre-study IVM-naïve community were followed. Skin snips were taken 364 days after the initial IVM treatment during the study to determine the microfilaria (mf) recovery rate. Nodules were excised and skin snips taken 90 days following a second study IVM treatment. Nodule and worm density and the reproductive status of female worms were determined. On the basis of skin mf repopulation and skin mf recovery rates we defined three categories of response--good, intermediate and poor--and also determined that approximately 25% of subjects in the study carried adult female worms that responded suboptimally to IVM. Stratification of the female worms by morphological age and microfilarial content showed that almost 90% of the worms were older or middle aged and that most of the mf were produced by the middle aged and older worms previously exposed to multiple treatments with little contribution from young worms derived from ongoing transmission.ConclusionsThe results confirm that in some communities adult female worms were non-responsive or resistant to the anti-fecundity effects of multiple treatments with IVM. A scheme of the varied responses of the adult female worm to multiple treatments is proposed.

Dataset Information

Model-Based Geostatistical Mapping of the Prevalence of Onchocerca volvulus in West Africa.

Publications

Model-Based Geostatistical Mapping of the Prevalence of Onchocerca volvulus in West Africa.

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