Dataset Information

Model Comparison for Breast Cancer Prognosis Based on Clinical Data.

ABSTRACT: We compared the performance of several prediction techniques for breast cancer prognosis, based on AU-ROC performance (Area Under ROC) for different prognosis periods. The analyzed dataset contained 1,981 patients and from an initial 25 variables, the 11 most common clinical predictors were retained. We compared eight models from a wide spectrum of predictive models, namely; Generalized Linear Model (GLM), GLM-Net, Partial Least Square (PLS), Support Vector Machines (SVM), Random Forests (RF), Neural Networks, k-Nearest Neighbors (k-NN) and Boosted Trees. In order to compare these models, paired t-test was applied on the model performance differences obtained from data resampling. Random Forests, Boosted Trees, Partial Least Square and GLMNet have superior overall performance, however they are only slightly higher than the other models. The comparative analysis also allowed us to define a relative variable importance as the average of variable importance from the different models. Two sets of variables are identified from this analysis. The first includes number of positive lymph nodes, tumor size, cancer grade and estrogen receptor, all has an important influence on model predictability. The second set incudes variables related to histological parameters and treatment types. The short term vs long term contribution of the clinical variables are also analyzed from the comparative models. From the various cancer treatment plans, the combination of Chemo/Radio therapy leads to the largest impact on cancer prognosis.

SUBMITTER: Boughorbel S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4714871 | biostudies-literature | 2016

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Model Comparison for Breast Cancer Prognosis Based on Clinical Data.

Boughorbel Sabri S Al-Ali Rashid R Elkum Naser N

PloS one 20160115 1

We compared the performance of several prediction techniques for breast cancer prognosis, based on AU-ROC performance (Area Under ROC) for different prognosis periods. The analyzed dataset contained 1,981 patients and from an initial 25 variables, the 11 most common clinical predictors were retained. We compared eight models from a wide spectrum of predictive models, namely; Generalized Linear Model (GLM), GLM-Net, Partial Least Square (PLS), Support Vector Machines (SVM), Random Forests (RF), N ...[more]

PMID: 26771838

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Project description:ObjectiveTriple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) is aggressive cancer usually diagnosed in young women with no effective prognosis prediction model to use. The present study was performed to develop a useful prognostic model for predicting overall survival (OS) for TNBC patients.MethodsThe Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) and Molecular Taxonomy of Breast Cancer International Consortium (METABRIC) databases were used as training and validation data sets, respectively, in which the gene expression levels and clinical prognostic information of TNBC were collected. Differentially expressed genes (DEGs) between TNBC and non-TNBC (NTNBC) were identified with the thresholds of false discovery rate < 0.05 and |log2 Fold Change| > 1. DEGs in AmiGO2 and the Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG) databases were retained for further study. Univariate, multivariate Cox, and logistic regression analysis were conducted for detecting DEG signature with the threshold of log-rank P < 0.05. The prognosis models of mRNA signature, clinical factors were constructed and compared.ResultsOne five-DEG signature, including CHST4, COCH, CST9, SOX11, and TDGF1 was identified in DEG prognosis model. Stratified analysis showed that the patients aged over 60, with higher pathologic stage (III-IV) and recurrence induced a significantly lower survival rate than those aged below 60, lower pathologic stage and without recurrence. Compared with patients with low-risk scores, those presented high-risk scores demonstrated significantly lower survival rate in the subgroup aged over 60 [HR = 3.780 (1.801-7.933), P < 0.0001]. For patients who obtained a higher pathologic stage and recurrence, high-risk scores were correlated with a significantly lower survival rate than patients with low-risk scores. The five-mRNA signature combined with clinical model (AUC = 0.950) predicted better than single clinical model (AUC = 0.795) or five-mRNA signature model (AUC = 0.823).ConclusionOur present study identified a prognostic prediction model (combined with five-mRNA signature and clinical factors) for TNBC patients receiving immunotherapy, which will benefit future research and clinical therapies.

Project description:The potential of applying data analysis tools to microarray data for diagnosis and prognosis is illustrated on the recent breast cancer dataset of van 't Veer and coworkers. We re-examine that dataset using the novel technique of logical analysis of data (LAD), with the double objective of discovering patterns characteristic for cases with good or poor outcome, using them for accurate and justifiable predictions; and deriving novel information about the role of genes, the existence of special classes of cases, and other factors.Data were analyzed using the combinatorics and optimization-based method of LAD, recently shown to provide highly accurate diagnostic and prognostic systems in cardiology, cancer proteomics, hematology, pulmonology, and other disciplines.LAD identified a subset of 17 of the 25,000 genes, capable of fully distinguishing between patients with poor, respectively good prognoses. An extensive list of 'patterns' or 'combinatorial biomarkers' (that is, combinations of genes and limitations on their expression levels) was generated, and 40 patterns were used to create a prognostic system, shown to have 100% and 92.9% weighted accuracy on the training and test sets, respectively. The prognostic system uses fewer genes than other methods, and has similar or better accuracy than those reported in other studies. Out of the 17 genes identified by LAD, three (respectively, five) were shown to play a significant role in determining poor (respectively, good) prognosis. Two new classes of patients (described by similar sets of covering patterns, gene expression ranges, and clinical features) were discovered. As a by-product of the study, it is shown that the training and the test sets of van 't Veer have differing characteristics.The study shows that LAD provides an accurate and fully explanatory prognostic system for breast cancer using genomic data (that is, a system that, in addition to predicting good or poor prognosis, provides an individualized explanation of the reasons for that prognosis for each patient). Moreover, the LAD model provides valuable insights into the roles of individual and combinatorial biomarkers, allows the discovery of new classes of patients, and generates a vast library of biomedical research hypotheses.

Dataset Information

Model Comparison for Breast Cancer Prognosis Based on Clinical Data.

Publications

Model Comparison for Breast Cancer Prognosis Based on Clinical Data.

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