Dataset Information

Strategic planning for saving the lives of mothers, newborns and children and preventing stillbirths in KwaZulu-Natal province South Africa: modelling using the Lives Saved Tool (LiST).

ABSTRACT:

Background

KwaZulu-Natal province in South Africa has the largest population of children under the age of five and experiences the highest number of child births per annum in the country. Its population has also been ravaged by the dual epidemics of HIV and TB and it has struggled to meet targets for maternal and child mortality. In South Africa's federal system, provinces have decision-making power on the prioritization and allocation of resources within their jurisdiction. As part of strategic planning for 2015-2019, KwaZulu-Natal provincial authorities requested an assessment of current mortality levels in the province and identification and costing of priority interventions for saving additional maternal, newborn and child lives, as well as preventing stillbirths in the province.

Methods

The Lives Saved Tool (LiST) was used to determine the set of interventions, which could save the most additional maternal and child lives and prevent stillbirths from 2015-2019, and the costs of these. The impact of family planning was assessed using two scenarios by increasing baseline coverage of modern contraception by 0.5 percentage points or 1 percentage point per annum.

Results

A total of 7,043 additional child and 297 additional maternal lives could be saved, and 2,000 stillbirths could be prevented over five years. Seventeen interventions account for 75% of additional lives saved. Increasing family planning contributes to a further reduction of up to 137 maternal and 3,168 child deaths. The set of priority interventions scaled up to achievable levels, with no increase in contraception would require an additional US$91 million over five years or US$1.72 per capita population per year. By increasing contraceptive prevalence by one percentage point per year, overall costs to scale up to achievable coverage package, decrease by US$24 million over five years.

Conclusion

Focused attention on a set of key interventions could have a significant impact on averting stillbirths and maternal and neonatal mortality in KwaZulu-Natal. Concerted effort to prioritize family planning will save more lives overall and has the potential to decrease costs in other areas of maternal and child care.

SUBMITTER: McGee SA

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4719569 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Strategic planning for saving the lives of mothers, newborns and children and preventing stillbirths in KwaZulu-Natal province South Africa: modelling using the Lives Saved Tool (LiST).

McGee Shelley-Ann SA Chola Lumbwe L Tugendhaft Aviva A Mubaiwa Victoria V Moran Neil N McKerrow Neil N Kamugisha Leonard L Hofman Karen K

BMC public health 20160119

<h4>Background</h4>KwaZulu-Natal province in South Africa has the largest population of children under the age of five and experiences the highest number of child births per annum in the country. Its population has also been ravaged by the dual epidemics of HIV and TB and it has struggled to meet targets for maternal and child mortality. In South Africa's federal system, provinces have decision-making power on the prioritization and allocation of resources within their jurisdiction. As part of s ...[more]

PMID: 26786979

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Project description:BackgroundDiarrhea is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality among children under five years of age. The Lives Saved Tool (LiST) is a model used to calculate deaths averted or lives saved by past interventions and for the purposes of program planning when costly and time consuming impact studies are not possible.DiscussionLiST models the relationship between coverage of interventions and outputs, such as stunting, diarrhea incidence and diarrhea mortality. Each intervention directly prevents a proportion of diarrhea deaths such that the effect size of the intervention is multiplied by coverage to calculate lives saved. That is, the maximum effect size could be achieved at 100% coverage, but at 50% coverage only 50% of possible deaths are prevented. Diarrhea mortality is one of the most complex causes of death to be modeled. The complexity is driven by the combination of direct prevention and treatment interventions as well as interventions that operate indirectly via the reduction in risk factors, such as stunting and wasting. Published evidence is used to quantify the effect sizes for each direct and indirect relationship. Several studies have compared measured changes in mortality to LiST estimates of mortality change looking at different sets of interventions in different countries. While comparison work has generally found good agreement between the LiST estimates and measured mortality reduction, where data availability is weak, the model is less likely to produce accurate results. LiST can be used as a component of program evaluation, but should be coupled with more complete information on inputs, processes and outputs, not just outcomes and impact.SummaryLiST is an effective tool for modeling diarrhea mortality and can be a useful alternative to large and expensive mortality impact studies. Predicting the impact of interventions or comparing the impact of more than one intervention without having to wait for the results of large and expensive mortality studies is critical to keep programs focused and results oriented for continued reductions in diarrhea and all-cause mortality among children under five years of age.

Project description:Achieving the Sustainable Development Goals will require careful allocation of resources in order to achieve the highest impact. The Lives Saved Tool (LiST) has been used widely to calculate the impact of maternal, neonatal and child health (MNCH) interventions for program planning and multi-country estimation in several Lancet Series commissions. As use of the LiST model increases, many have expressed a desire to cost interventions within the model, in order to support budgeting and prioritization of interventions by countries. A limited LiST costing module was introduced several years ago, but with gaps in cost types. Updates to inputs have now been added to make the module fully functional for a range of uses.This paper builds on previous work that developed an initial version of the LiST costing module to provide costs for MNCH interventions using an ingredients-based costing approach. Here, we update in 2016 the previous econometric estimates from 2013 with newly-available data and also include above-facility level costs such as program management. The updated econometric estimates inform percentages of intervention-level costs for some direct costs and indirect costs. These estimates add to existing values for direct cost requirements for items such as drugs and supplies and required provider time which were already available in LiST Costing.Results generated by the LiST costing module include costs for each intervention, as well as disaggregated costs by intervention including drug and supply costs, labor costs, other recurrent costs, capital costs, and above-service delivery costs. These results can be combined with mortality estimates to support prioritization of interventions by countries.The LiST costing module provides an option for countries to identify resource requirements for scaling up a maternal, neonatal, and child health program, and to examine the financial impact of different resource allocation strategies. It can be a useful tool for countries as they seek to identify the best investments for scarce resources. The purpose of the LiST model is to provide a tool to make resource allocation decisions in a strategic planning process through prioritizing interventions based on resulting impact on maternal and child mortality and morbidity.

Project description:Evidence has been accumulating that community health workers (CHWs) providing evidence-based interventions as part of community-based primary health care (CBPHC) can lead to reductions in maternal, neonatal and child mortality. However, investments to strengthen and scale-up CHW programs still remain modest.We used the Lives Saved Tool (LiST) to estimate the number of maternal, neonatal and child deaths and stillbirths that could be prevented if 73 countries effectively scaled up the population coverage of 30 evidence-based interventions that CHWs can deliver in these high-burden countries. We set population coverage targets at 50%, 70%, and 90% and summed the country-level results by region and by all 73 high-burden countries combined. We also estimated which specific interventions would save the most lives.LiST estimates that a total of 3.0 (sensitivity bounds 1.8-4.0), 4.9 (3.1-6.3) and 6.9 (3.7-8.7) million deaths would be prevented between 2016 and 2020 if CBPHC is gradually scaled up during this period and if coverage of key interventions reaches 50%, 70%, and 90% respectively. There would be 14%, 23%, and 32% fewer deaths in the final year compared to a scenario assuming no intervention coverage scale up. The Africa Region would receive the most benefit by far: 58% of the lives saved at 90% coverage would be in this region. The interventions contributing the greatest impact are nutritional interventions during pregnancy, treatment of malaria with artemisinin compounds, oral rehydration solution for childhood diarrhea, hand washing with soap, and oral antibiotics for pneumonia.Scaling up CHW programming to increase population-level coverage of life-saving interventions represents a very promising strategy to achieve universal health coverage and end preventable maternal and child deaths by 2030. Numerous practical challenges must be overcome, but there is no better alternative at present. Expanding the coverage of key interventions for maternal nutrition and treatment of childhood illnesses, in particular, may produce the greatest gains. Recognizing the millions of lives of mothers and their young offspring that could be achieved by expanding coverage of evidence-based interventions provided by CHWs and strengthening the CBPHC systems that support them underscores the pressing need for commitment from governments and donors over the next 15 years to prioritize funding, so that robust CHW platforms can be refined, strengthened, and expanded.

Project description:BackgroundStrengthening the capacity of midwives to deliver high-quality maternal and newborn health services has been highlighted as a priority by global health organisations. To support low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) in their decisions about investments in health, we aimed to estimate the potential impact of midwives on reducing maternal and neonatal deaths and stillbirths under several intervention coverage scenarios.MethodsFor this modelling study, we used the Lives Saved Tool to estimate the number of deaths that would be averted by 2035, if coverage of health interventions that can be delivered by professional midwives were scaled up in 88 countries that account for the vast majority of the world's maternal and neonatal deaths and stillbirths. We used four scenarios to assess the effects of increasing the coverage of midwife-delivered interventions by a modest amount (10% every 5 years), a substantial amount (25% every 5 years), and the amount needed to reach universal coverage of these interventions (ie, to 95%); and the effects of coverage attrition (a 2% decrease every 5 years). We grouped countries in three equal-sized groups according to their Human Development Index. Group A included the 30 countries with the lowest HDI, group B included 29 low-to-medium HDI countries, and group C included 29 medium-to-high HDI countries.FindingsWe estimated that, relative to current coverage, a substantial increase in coverage of midwife-delivered interventions could avert 41% of maternal deaths, 39% of neonatal deaths, and 26% of stillbirths, equating to 2·2 million deaths averted per year by 2035. Even a modest increase in coverage of midwife-delivered interventions could avert 22% of maternal deaths, 23% of neonatal deaths, and 14% of stillbirths, equating to 1·3 million deaths averted per year by 2035. Relative to current coverage, universal coverage of midwife-delivered interventions would avert 67% of maternal deaths, 64% of neonatal deaths, and 65% of stillbirths, allowing 4·3 million lives to be saved annually by 2035. These deaths averted would be particularly concentrated in the group B countries, which currently account for a large proportion of the world's population and have high mortality rates compared with group C.InterpretationMidwives can help to substantially reduce maternal and neonatal mortality and stillbirths in LMICs. However, to realise this potential, midwives need to have skills and competencies in line with recommendations from the International Confederation of Midwives, to be part of a team of sufficient size and skill, and to work in an enabling environment. Our study highlights the potential of midwives but there are many challenges to the achievement of this potential. If increased coverage of midwife-delivered interventions can be achieved, health systems will be better able to provide effective coverage of essential sexual, reproductive, maternal, newborn, and adolescent health interventions.FundingNew Venture Fund.

Dataset Information

Strategic planning for saving the lives of mothers, newborns and children and preventing stillbirths in KwaZulu-Natal province South Africa: modelling using the Lives Saved Tool (LiST).

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusion

Publications

Strategic planning for saving the lives of mothers, newborns and children and preventing stillbirths in KwaZulu-Natal province South Africa: modelling using the Lives Saved Tool (LiST).

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