Climate challenges, vulnerabilities, and food security.
Ontology highlight
ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Nelson MC
PROVIDER: S-EPMC4720298 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Jan
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Publications
Climate challenges, vulnerabilities, and food security.
Nelson Margaret C MC Ingram Scott E SE Dugmore Andrew J AJ Streeter Richard R Peeples Matthew A MA McGovern Thomas H TH Hegmon Michelle M Arneborg Jette J Kintigh Keith W KW Brewington Seth S Spielmann Katherine A KA Simpson Ian A IA Strawhacker Colleen C Comeau Laura E L LE Torvinen Andrea A Madsen Christian K CK Hambrecht George G Smiarowski Konrad K
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 20151228 2
This paper identifies rare climate challenges in the long-term history of seven areas, three in the subpolar North Atlantic Islands and four in the arid-to-semiarid deserts of the US Southwest. For each case, the vulnerability to food shortage before the climate challenge is quantified based on eight variables encompassing both environmental and social domains. These data are used to evaluate the relationship between the "weight" of vulnerability before a climate challenge and the nature of soci ...[more]
Similar Datasets
Project description:International policy is placing increasing emphasis on adaptation to climate change, including the allocation of new funds to assist adaptation efforts. Climate change adaptation funding may be most effective where it meets integrated goals, but global geographic priorities based on multiple development and ecological criteria are not well characterized. Here we show that human and natural adaptation needs related to maintaining agricultural productivity and ecosystem integrity intersect in ten major areas globally, providing a coherent set of international priorities for adaptation funding. An additional seven regional areas are identified as worthy of additional study. The priority areas are locations where changes in crop suitability affecting impoverished farmers intersect with changes in ranges of restricted-range species. Agreement among multiple climate models and emissions scenarios suggests that these priorities are robust. Adaptation funding directed to these areas could simultaneously address multiple international policy goals, including poverty reduction, protecting agricultural production and safeguarding ecosystem services.
| S-EPMC3749124 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Attempts to increase food crop yields by intensifying agricultural systems using high inputs of nonrenewable resources and chemicals frequently lead to de-gradation of natural resources, whereas most technological innovations are not accessible for smallholders that represent the majority of farmers world wide. Alternatively, cocultures consisting of assemblages of plant and animal species can support ecological processes of nutrient cycling and pest control, which may lead to increasing yields and declining susceptibility to extreme weather conditions with increasing complexity of the systems. Here we show that enhancing the complexity of a rice production system by adding combinations of compost, azolla, ducks, and fish resulted in strongly increased grain yields and revenues in a season with extremely adverse weather conditions on East Java, Indonesia. We found that azolla, duck, and fish increased plant nutrient content, tillering and leaf area expansion, and strongly reduced the density of six different pests. In the most complex system comprising all components the highest grain yield was obtained. The net revenues of this system from sales of rice grain, fish, and ducks, after correction for extra costs, were 114% higher than rice cultivation with only compost as fertilizer. These results provide more insight in the agro-ecological processes and demonstrate how complex agricultural systems can contribute to food security in a changing climate. If smallholders can be trained to manage these systems and are supported for initial investments by credits, their livelihoods can be improved while producing in an ecologically benign way.
| S-EPMC3434917 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Livestock production is an important contributor to sustainable food security for many nations, particularly in low-income areas and marginal habitats that are unsuitable for crop production. Animal products account for approximately one-third of global human protein consumption. Here, a range of indicators, derived from FAOSTAT and World Bank statistics, are used to model the relative vulnerability of nations at the global scale to predicted climate and population changes, which are likely to impact on their use of grazing livestock for food. Vulnerability analysis has been widely used in global change science to predict impacts on food security and famine. It is a tool that is useful to inform policy decision making and direct the targeting of interventions. The model developed shows that nations within sub-Saharan Africa, particularly in the Sahel region, and some Asian nations are likely to be the most vulnerable. Livestock-based food security is already compromised in many areas on these continents and suffers constraints from current climate in addition to the lack of economic and technical support allowing mitigation of predicted climate change impacts. Governance is shown to be a highly influential factor and, paradoxically, it is suggested that current self-sufficiency may increase future potential vulnerability because trade networks are poorly developed. This may be relieved through freer trade of food products, which is also associated with improved governance. Policy decisions, support and interventions will need to be targeted at the most vulnerable nations, but given the strong influence of governance, to be effective, any implementation will require considerable care in the management of underlying structural reform.
| S-EPMC4282280 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Agriculture is the mainstay of Malawi's economy and maize is the most important crop for food security. As a Least Developed Country (LDC), adverse effects of climate change (CC) on agriculture in Malawi are expected to be significant. We examined the impacts of CC on maize production and food security in Malawi's dominant cereal producing region, Lilongwe District. We used five Global Circulation Models (GCMs) to make future (2011 to 2100) rainfall and temperature projections and simulated maize yields under these projections. Our future rainfall projections did not reveal a strong increasing or decreasing trend, but temperatures are expected to increase. Our crop modelling results, for the short-term future, suggest that maize farming might benefit from CC. However, faster crop growth could worsen Malawi's soil fertility problem. Increasing temperature could drive lower maize yields in the medium to long-term future. Consequently, up to 12% of the population in Lilongwe District might be vulnerable to food insecurity by the end of the century. Measures to increase soil fertility and moisture must be developed to build resilience into Malawi's agriculture sector.
| S-EPMC5099946 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic disrupted food systems and economies across the United States. Public health measures, including stay-at-home orders, led to employment disruptions and food system shocks that increased barriers to food access.ObjectivesWe aimed to examine food insecurity and food access challenges in New Mexico (NM) during the COVID-19 pandemic.MethodsA cross-sectional study using a validated survey was conducted in NM in May and June 2020. Adults 18 y and older were recruited through convenience sampling via email, websites, and targeted social media ads from major universities, nongovernmental organizations, state agencies, and media outlets. Survey questions assessed food insecurity and food-related challenges and worry. Bivariate and multivariate logistic regression examined relations between food insecurity and demographic characteristics. z Tests were used to compare the proportions of individuals who responded affirmatively to food challenge and worry questions between food-secure and food-insecure respondents.ResultsA total of 1487 residents participated in the study. Thirty percent of respondents reported experiencing food insecurity and 16% experienced very low food security since the pandemic started. Food insecurity was associated with each of 7 characteristics examined in bivariate logistic regression analyses. Multivariate logistic regression results showed that Hispanic (adjusted OR: 1.70; 95% CI: 1.18, 2.44) and female (adjusted OR: 1.78; 95% CI: 1.09, 2.90) respondents were more likely to experience food insecurity than non-Hispanic white and male respondents. Larger household sizes were associated with higher odds of food insecurity except for those in the lowest and highest income categories. z Tests showed that a higher proportion of food-insecure respondents experienced food-related challenges and worry than food-secure respondents.ConclusionsDisparities in food insecurity persisted during the COVID-19 pandemic and food-insecure individuals were more likely to report experiencing food-related challenges and worry. Researchers and policy makers in NM may consider continuing efforts to mitigate food access issues as the pandemic continues.
| S-EPMC8758401 | biostudies-literature
Project description:This paper brings advances in weather data collection and modeling, and developments in socioeconomic climate microsimulations to bear on the analysis of the implications of climate change (CC) in the design of public policies to combat food insecurity. It uses new downscaled predictions of future climate in 2050, derived from three Earth System Models calibrated with a new historical weather station dataset for Peru. This climate data is used in a three-stage socioeconomic microsimulation model that includes climate risk, and deals with the endogeneity of incomes and simultaneity of expected food consumption and its variability. We estimate the impact of CC on agricultural yields, and find results consistent and fully bounded within what the global simulations literature has found, with yields falling up to 13% in some regions. However, we show that these drops (and increases) in yields translate to much smaller changes in food consumption, and also surprisingly, to very minor impacts on vulnerability to food insecurity. The document explores what explains this surprising result, showing that in addition to characteristics that are specific to Peru, there are household and market mediating mechanisms that are available in all countries, which explain how changes in yields, and corresponding farm incomes have a reduced impact in vulnerability to food insecurity. Finally, in light of these findings, we explore which policies might have greater impact in reducing food insecurity in contexts of hunger prevalence.
| S-EPMC6764669 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Recent research has shed light on the cost-effective contribution that agriculture can make to global greenhouse gas abatement; however, the resulting impacts on agricultural production, producer livelihoods, and food security remain largely unexplored. This paper provides an integrated assessment of the linkages between land-based climate policies, development, and food security, with a particular emphasis on abatement opportunities and impacts in the livestock sector. Targeting Annex I countries and exempting non-Annex I countries from land-based carbon policies on equity or food security grounds may result in significant leakage rates for livestock production and agriculture as a whole. We find that such leakage can be eliminated by supplying forest carbon sequestration incentives to non-Annex I countries. Furthermore, substantial additional global agricultural abatement can be attained by extending a greenhouse gas emissions tax to non-Annex I agricultural producers, while compensating them for their additional tax expenses. Because of their relatively large emissions intensities and limited abatement possibilities, ruminant meat producers face the greatest market adjustments to land-based climate policies. We also evaluate the impacts of climate policies on livelihoods and food consumption in developing countries. In the absence of non-Annex I abatement policies, these impacts are modest. However, strong income and food consumption impacts surface because of higher food costs after forest carbon sequestration is promoted at a global scale. Food consumption among unskilled labor households falls but rises for the representative farm households, because global agricultural supplies are restricted and farm prices rise sharply in the face of inelastic food demands.
| S-EPMC3876243 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Climate change is likely to worsen the food security situation through its impact on food production, which may indirectly affect fertility behaviour. This study examines the direct and indirect effects of climate change (e.g., temperature and precipitation) via the production of major crops, as well as their short- and long-term effects on the total fertility rate (TFR) in Bangladesh. We used structural equation modelling (SEM) to perform path analysis and distinguish the direct influence of climate change on fertility and its indirect influence on fertility through food security. We also applied the error correction model (ECM) to analyze the time-series data on temperature and precipitation, crop production and fertility rate of Bangladesh from 1966 to 2015. The results show that maximum temperature has a direct effect and indirect negative effect-via crop production-on TFR, while crop production has a direct positive effect and indirect negative effect-via infant mortality-on TFR. In the short term, TFR responds negatively to the maximum temperature but positively in the long term. The effect of rainfall on TFR is found to be direct, positive, but mainly short-term. Although indicators of economic development play an important part in the fertility decline in Bangladesh, some climate change parameters and crop production are non-negligible factors.
| S-EPMC8530311 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The Caribbean region remains susceptible to an increasing frequency of natural disasters, rising international debt, out-migration, rapid urbanization, and high imports to meet basic needs. Food and nutrition insecurity persists in these small island states, with around 67.5% of the population living in moderate or severe food insecurity. Policy adjustments required to address the targets subsumed by the second sustainable development goal (SDG2 or Zero Hunger) are still at an infant stage. This research offers rigorous and up-to-date analyzes of the current status of Caribbean food policies and practices through a scoping review and expert interviews to answer the question, “What constraints and enablers impact the ability of small island states to achieve the Zero Hunger goal?”. A scoping review is performed following the relevant population, concept, and context (PCC) methodology by the Joanna Briggs Institute (JBI). Five major challenges and barriers are identified through the scoping review: (i) island geography, (ii) governance deficiencies, and (iii) institutional constraints, compounded by (iv) collaboration barriers, and (v) externally imposed impediments (including environmental and financial shocks). To address these challenges, synergistic linkages and restrictive connections have been recognized for SDG2 localization. It was concluded that three dimensions of food security (utilization, agency, and sustainability) are mainly overlooked, necessitating special attention and action. By identifying bridging institutions and engaging various actors in supporting shared rulemaking, power, conflict management, and knowledge-sharing among local, national, and regional policy actors, a polycentric governance system is recommended as a suitable mechanism to help islands move towards food security. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s44177-021-00008-8.
| S-EPMC8771656 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Food security is a global concern affecting even highly developed countries. Ongoing globalisation of food systems, characterised by trading interdependencies, means that agricultural production can be disrupted by climate change, affecting food availability. This study investigated Sweden's food security by identifying major food import categories and associated trade partners (using the World Integrated Trade System database) and vulnerability to frictions in trade deriving from climate change. Vulnerability was assessed through three indicators: exposure based on diversity of sources, dominance and direct trade from supplying countries; sensitivity, assessed using the Climate Risk Index, and adaptive capacity, assessed using the Fragile State Index. The results revealed that Sweden's grain imports may be most vulnerable, and animal products least vulnerable, to climate change. Management strategies based on this preliminary assessment can be developed by integrating climate vulnerability deriving from food trading into the 'Gravity' model, to improve prediction of trade flows.
| S-EPMC8847661 | biostudies-literature