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Objective Estimates Improve Risk Stratification for Primary Graft Dysfunction after Lung Transplantation.

ABSTRACT: Primary graft dysfunction (PGD) is a major cause of early mortality after lung transplant. We aimed to define objective estimates of PGD risk based on readily available clinical variables, using a prospective study of 11 centers in the Lung Transplant Outcomes Group (LTOG). Derivation included 1255 subjects from 2002 to 2010; with separate validation in 382 subjects accrued from 2011 to 2012. We used logistic regression to identify predictors of grade 3 PGD at 48/72?h, and decision curve methods to assess impact on clinical decisions. 211/1255 subjects in the derivation and 56/382 subjects in the validation developed PGD. We developed three prediction models, where low-risk recipients had a normal BMI (18.5-25?kg/m(2) ), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease/cystic fibrosis, and absent or mild pulmonary hypertension (mPAP<40?mmHg). All others were considered higher-risk. Low-risk recipients had a predicted PGD risk of 4-7%, and high-risk a predicted PGD risk of 15-18%. Adding a donor-smoking lung to a higher-risk recipient significantly increased PGD risk, although risk did not change in low-risk recipients. Validation demonstrated that probability estimates were generally accurate and that models worked best at baseline PGD incidences between 5% and 25%. We conclude that valid estimates of PGD risk can be produced using readily available clinical variables.

SUBMITTER: Shah RJ

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4721238 | biostudies-literature | 2015 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Objective Estimates Improve Risk Stratification for Primary Graft Dysfunction after Lung Transplantation.

Shah R J RJ Diamond J M JM Cantu E E Flesch J J Lee J C JC Lederer D J DJ Lama V N VN Orens J J Weinacker A A Wilkes D S DS Roe D D Bhorade S S Wille K M KM Ware L B LB Palmer S M SM Crespo M M Demissie E E Sonnet J J Shah A A Kawut S M SM Bellamy S L SL Localio A R AR Christie J D JD

American journal of transplantation : official journal of the American Society of Transplantation and the American Society of Transplant Surgeons 20150415 8

Primary graft dysfunction (PGD) is a major cause of early mortality after lung transplant. We aimed to define objective estimates of PGD risk based on readily available clinical variables, using a prospective study of 11 centers in the Lung Transplant Outcomes Group (LTOG). Derivation included 1255 subjects from 2002 to 2010; with separate validation in 382 subjects accrued from 2011 to 2012. We used logistic regression to identify predictors of grade 3 PGD at 48/72 h, and decision curve methods ...[more]

PMID: 25877792

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Project description:BACKGROUNDThe complement system plays a key role in host defense but is activated by ischemia/reperfusion injury (IRI). Primary graft dysfunction (PGD) is a form of acute lung injury occurring predominantly due to IRI, which worsens survival after lung transplantation (LTx). Local complement activation is associated with acute lung injury, but whether it is more reflective of allograft injury compared with systemic activation remains unclear. We proposed that local complement activation would help identify those who develop PGD after LTx. We also aimed to identify which complement activation pathways are associated with PGD.METHODSWe performed a multicenter cohort study at the University of Pennsylvania and Washington University School of Medicine. Bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL) and plasma specimens were obtained from recipients within 24 hours after LTx. PGD was scored based on the consensus definition. Complement activation products and components of each arm of the complement cascade were measured using ELISA.RESULTSIn both cohorts, sC4d and sC5b-9 levels were increased in BAL of subjects with PGD compared with those without PGD. Subjects with PGD also had higher C1q, C2, C4, and C4b, compared with subjects without PGD, suggesting classical and lectin pathway involvement. Ba levels were higher in subjects with PGD, suggesting alternative pathway activation. Among lectin pathway-specific components, MBL and FCN-3 had a moderate-to-strong correlation with the terminal complement complex in the BAL but not in the plasma.CONCLUSIONComplement activation fragments are detected in the BAL within 24 hours after LTx. Components of all 3 pathways are locally increased in subjects with PGD. Our findings create a precedent for investigating complement-targeted therapeutics to mitigate PGD.FUNDINGThis research was supported by the NIH, American Lung Association, Children's Discovery Institute, Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, Cystic Fibrosis Foundation, Barnes-Jewish Hospital Foundation, Danish Heart Foundation, Danish Research Foundation of Independent Research, Svend Andersen Research Foundation, and Novo Nordisk Research Foundation.

Dataset Information

Objective Estimates Improve Risk Stratification for Primary Graft Dysfunction after Lung Transplantation.

Publications

Objective Estimates Improve Risk Stratification for Primary Graft Dysfunction after Lung Transplantation.

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