Dataset Information

Coupled Downscaled Climate Models and Ecophysiological Metrics Forecast Habitat Compression for an Endangered Estuarine Fish.

ABSTRACT: Climate change is driving rapid changes in environmental conditions and affecting population and species' persistence across spatial and temporal scales. Integrating climate change assessments into biological resource management, such as conserving endangered species, is a substantial challenge, partly due to a mismatch between global climate forecasts and local or regional conservation planning. Here, we demonstrate how outputs of global climate change models can be downscaled to the watershed scale, and then coupled with ecophysiological metrics to assess climate change effects on organisms of conservation concern. We employed models to estimate future water temperatures (2010-2099) under several climate change scenarios within the large heterogeneous San Francisco Estuary. We then assessed the warming effects on the endangered, endemic Delta Smelt, Hypomesus transpacificus, by integrating localized projected water temperatures with thermal sensitivity metrics (tolerance, spawning and maturation windows, and sublethal stress thresholds) across life stages. Lethal temperatures occurred under several scenarios, but sublethal effects resulting from chronic stressful temperatures were more common across the estuary (median >60 days above threshold for >50% locations by the end of the century). Behavioral avoidance of such stressful temperatures would make a large portion of the potential range of Delta Smelt unavailable during the summer and fall. Since Delta Smelt are not likely to migrate to other estuaries, these changes are likely to result in substantial habitat compression. Additionally, the Delta Smelt maturation window was shortened by 18-85 days, revealing cumulative effects of stressful summer and fall temperatures with early initiation of spring spawning that may negatively impact fitness. Our findings highlight the value of integrating sublethal thresholds, life history, and in situ thermal heterogeneity into global change impact assessments. As downscaled climate models are becoming widely available, we conclude that similar assessments at management-relevant scales will improve the scientific basis for resource management decisions.

SUBMITTER: Brown LR

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4721863 | biostudies-literature | 2016

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Coupled Downscaled Climate Models and Ecophysiological Metrics Forecast Habitat Compression for an Endangered Estuarine Fish.

Brown Larry R LR Komoroske Lisa M LM Wagner R Wayne RW Morgan-King Tara T May Jason T JT Connon Richard E RE Fangue Nann A NA

PloS one 20160121 1

Climate change is driving rapid changes in environmental conditions and affecting population and species' persistence across spatial and temporal scales. Integrating climate change assessments into biological resource management, such as conserving endangered species, is a substantial challenge, partly due to a mismatch between global climate forecasts and local or regional conservation planning. Here, we demonstrate how outputs of global climate change models can be downscaled to the watershed ...[more]

PMID: 26796147

Similar Datasets

Project description:Diadromy affords fish access to productive ecosystems, increasing growth and ultimately fitness, but it is unclear whether these advantages persist for species migrating within highly altered habitat. Here, we compared the foraging success of wild Delta Smelt-an endangered, zooplanktivorous, annual, semi-anadromous fish that is endemic to the highly altered San Francisco Estuary (SFE)-collected from freshwater (<0.55 psu) and brackish habitat (≥0.55 psu). Stomach fullness, averaged across three generations of wild Delta Smelt sampled from juvenile through adult life stages (n = 1,318), was 1.5-fold higher in brackish than in freshwater habitat. However, salinity and season interacted, with higher fullness (1.7-fold) in freshwater than in brackish habitat in summer, but far higher fullness in brackish than freshwater habitat during fall/winter and winter/spring (1.8 and 2.0-fold, respectively). To examine potential causes of this interaction we compared mesozooplankton abundance, collected concurrently with the Delta Smelt, in freshwater and brackish habitat during summer and fall/winter, and the metabolic rate of sub-adult Delta Smelt acclimated to salinities of 0.4, 2.0, and 12.0 psu in a laboratory experiment. A seasonal peak in mesozooplankton density coincided with the summer peak in Delta Smelt foraging success in freshwater, and a pronounced decline in freshwater mesozooplankton abundance in the fall coincided with declining stomach fullness, which persisted for the remainder of the year (fall, winter and spring). In brackish habitat, greater foraging 'efficiency' (prey items in stomachs/mesozooplankton abundance) led to more prey items per fish and generally higher stomach fullness (i.e., a higher proportion of mesozooplankton detected in concurrent trawls were eaten by fish in brackish habitat). Delta Smelt exhibited no difference in metabolic rate across the three salinities, indicating that metabolic responses to salinity are unlikely to have caused the stomach fullness results. Adult migration and freshwater spawning therefore places young fish in a position to exploit higher densities of prey in freshwater in the late spring/summer, and subsequent movement downstream provides older fish more accessible prey in brackish habitat. Thus, despite endemism to a highly-altered estuary, semi-anadromy provided substantial foraging benefits to Delta Smelt, consistent with other temperate migratory fish.

Project description:Light detection and ranging (lidar) has emerged as a valuable tool for examining the fine-scale characteristics of vegetation. However, lidar is rarely used to examine coastal wetland vegetation or the habitat selection of small mammals. Extensive anthropogenic modification has threatened the endemic species in the estuarine wetlands of the California coast, such as the endangered salt marsh harvest mouse (Reithrodontomys raviventris; SMHM). A better understanding of SMHM habitat selection could help managers better protect this species. We assessed the ability of airborne topographic lidar imagery in measuring the vegetation structure of SMHM habitats in a coastal wetland with a narrow range of vegetation heights. We also aimed to better understand the role of vegetation structure in habitat selection at different spatial scales. Habitat selection was modeled from data compiled from 15 small mammal trapping grids collected in the highly urbanized San Francisco Estuary in California, USA. Analyses were conducted at three spatial scales: microhabitat (25 m2), mesohabitat (2025 m2), and macrohabitat (~10,000 m2). A suite of structural covariates was derived from raw lidar data to examine vegetation complexity. We found that adding structural covariates to conventional habitat selection variables significantly improved our models. At the microhabitat scale in managed wetlands, SMHM preferred areas with denser and shorter vegetation and selected for proximity to levees and taller vegetation in tidal wetlands. At the mesohabitat scale, SMHM were associated with a lower percentage of bare ground and with pickleweed (Salicornia pacifica) presence. All covariates were insignificant at the macrohabitat scale. Our results suggest that SMHM preferentially selected microhabitats with access to tidal refugia and mesohabitats with consistent food sources. Our findings showed that lidar can contribute to improving our understanding of habitat selection of wildlife in coastal wetlands and help to guide future conservation of an endangered species.

Project description:BackgroundThe application of otolith-based tools to inform the management and conservation of fishes first requires taxon- and stage-specific validation. The Delta Smelt (Hypomesus transpacificus), a critically endangered estuarine fish that is endemic to the upper San Francisco Estuary (SFE), California, United States, serves as a key indicator species in the SFE; thus, understanding this species' vital rates and population dynamics is valuable for assessing the overall health of the estuary. Otolith-based tools have been developed and applied across multiple life stages of Delta Smelt to reconstruct age structure, growth, phenology, and migration. However, key methodological assumptions have yet to be validated, thus limiting confidence in otolith-derived metrics that are important for informing major water management decisions in the SFE.MethodsUsing known-age cultured Delta Smelt and multiple independent otolith analysts, we examined otolith formation, otolith-somatic proportionality, aging accuracy and precision, left-right symmetry, and the effects of image magnification for larval, juvenile, and adult Delta Smelt.ResultsOverall, otolith size varied linearly with fish size (from 10-60 mm), explaining 99% of the variation in fish length, despite a unique slope for larvae < 10 mm. Otolith-somatic proportionality was similar among wild and cultured specimens. Aging precision among independent analysts was 98% and aging accuracy relative to known ages was 96%, with age estimates exhibiting negligible differences among left and right otoliths. Though error generally increased with age, percent error decreased from 0-30 days-post-hatch, with precision remaining relatively high (≥ 95%) thereafter. Increased magnification (400×) further improved aging accuracy for the oldest, slowest-growing individuals. Together, these results indicate that otolith-based techniques provide reliable age and growth reconstructions for larval, juvenile, and adult Delta Smelt. Such experimental assessments across multiple developmental stages are key steps toward assessing confidence in otolith-derived metrics that are often used to assess the dynamics of wild fish populations.

Project description:Genetic diversity underpins the ability of populations to persist and adapt to environmental changes. Substantial empirical data show that genetic diversity rapidly deteriorates in small and isolated populations due to genetic drift, leading to reduction in adaptive potential and fitness and increase in inbreeding. Assisted gene flow (e.g. via translocations) can reverse these trends, but lack of data on fitness loss and fear of impairing population "uniqueness" often prevents managers from acting. Here, we use population genetic and riverscape genetic analyses and simulations to explore the consequences of extensive habitat loss and fragmentation on population genetic diversity and future population trajectories of an endangered Australian freshwater fish, Macquarie perch Macquaria australasica. Using guidelines to assess the risk of outbreeding depression under admixture, we develop recommendations for population management, identify populations requiring genetic rescue and/or genetic restoration and potential donor sources. We found that most remaining populations of Macquarie perch have low genetic diversity, and effective population sizes below the threshold required to retain adaptive potential. Our simulations showed that under management inaction, smaller populations of Macquarie perch will face inbreeding depression within a few decades, but regular small-scale translocations will rapidly rescue populations from inbreeding depression and increase adaptive potential through genetic restoration. Despite the lack of data on fitness loss, based on our genetic data for Macquarie perch populations, simulations and empirical results from other systems, we recommend regular and frequent translocations among remnant populations within catchments. These translocations will emulate the effect of historical gene flow and improve population persistence through decrease in demographic and genetic stochasticity. Increasing population genetic connectivity within each catchment will help to maintain large effective population sizes and maximize species adaptive potential. The approach proposed here could be readily applicable to genetic management of other threatened species to improve their adaptive potential.

Dataset Information

Coupled Downscaled Climate Models and Ecophysiological Metrics Forecast Habitat Compression for an Endangered Estuarine Fish.

Publications

Coupled Downscaled Climate Models and Ecophysiological Metrics Forecast Habitat Compression for an Endangered Estuarine Fish.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets