Dataset Information

Weight-HbA1c-insulin-glucose model for describing disease progression of type 2 diabetes.

ABSTRACT: A previous semi-mechanistic model described changes in fasting serum insulin (FSI), fasting plasma glucose (FPG), and glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) in patients with type 2 diabetic mellitus (T2DM) by modeling insulin sensitivity and ?-cell function. It was later suggested that change in body weight could affect insulin sensitivity, which this study evaluated in a population model to describe the disease progression of T2DM. Nonlinear mixed effects modeling was performed on data from 181 obese patients with newly diagnosed T2DM managed with diet and exercise for 67 weeks. Baseline ?-cell function and insulin sensitivity were 61% and 25% of normal, respectively. Management with diet and exercise (mean change in body weight?=?-4.1 kg) was associated with an increase of insulin sensitivity (30.1%) at the end of the study. Changes in insulin sensitivity were associated with a decrease of FPG (range, 7.8-7.3 mmol/L) and HbA1c (6.7-6.4%). Weight change as an effector on insulin sensitivity was successfully evaluated in a semi-mechanistic population model.

SUBMITTER: Choy S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4728293 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Weight-HbA1c-insulin-glucose model for describing disease progression of type 2 diabetes.

Choy S S Kjellsson M C MC Karlsson M O MO de Winter W W

CPT: pharmacometrics & systems pharmacology 20151216 1

A previous semi-mechanistic model described changes in fasting serum insulin (FSI), fasting plasma glucose (FPG), and glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) in patients with type 2 diabetic mellitus (T2DM) by modeling insulin sensitivity and β-cell function. It was later suggested that change in body weight could affect insulin sensitivity, which this study evaluated in a population model to describe the disease progression of T2DM. Nonlinear mixed effects modeling was performed on data from 181 obese pati ...[more]

PMID: 26844011

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Project description:The nonsignificant reduction in macrovascular outcomes observed in Action to Control Cardiovascular Risk in Diabetes; Action in Diabetes and Vascular Disease: Preterax and Diamicron Modified Release Controlled Evaluation; and the Veterans Affairs Diabetes Trial have collectively created uncertainty with respect toward the proper extent of blood glucose reduction and also the optimal therapeutic choice to attain the reduction. In the article entitled "Glucose Supply and Insulin Demand Dynamics of Antidiabetic Agents" in this issue of Journal of Diabetes Science and Technology, we presented data for a pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic model that characterizes the effect of conventional antidiabetic therapies on the glucose supply and insulin demand dynamic. Here, it is our objective to test the hypothesis that, in conjunction with hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c), patients managed on the glucose supply side of the model would have fewer cardiovascular events versus those managed on the insulin demand side.To test this hypothesis, the electronic medical records of a group model health maintenance organization were queried to compile a population of patients meeting the following inclusion criteria: (1) type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), (2) known date of T2DM diagnosis; (3) ICD-9 or CPT code identification and chart review confirmation of a first major cardiovascular event (myocardial infarction, coronary artery bypass graft, or angioplasty),(4) five years of continuous eligibility, and (5) on antidiabetic therapy at the beginning of the 5-year observation period. These patients were subsequently matched (1:1) to T2DM patients meeting the same criteria who had not experienced an event and were analyzed for differences in glucose control (HbA1C), the glucose supply:insulin demand dynamic (SD ratio), and categorical combinations of both parameters.Fifty cardiovascular event patients met inclusion criteria and were matched to controls. No difference was observed for the average HbA1c or SD ratio between patients experiencing an event and controls (7.5 +/- 1.0% versus 7.3 +/- 0.9%, p = .275, and 1.2 +/- 0.3 versus 1.3 +/- 0.3, p = .205, respectively). Likewise, for categorical representations, there were no differences in event rate at the pre-identified breakpoints (HbA1c >or=7% versus <7%; 72% versus 64%, p = .391, and SD ratio >or=1 versus <1; 68% versus 76%, p = .373, >or=1.25 versus <1.25; 42% versus 56%, p = .161, >or=1.5 versus <1.5; 22% versus 30%, p = .362, respectively). Analyzing the combined effect of glucose control and the SD dynamic, patients managed at higher glucose values and on the insulin demand side of the model (HbA1c >or=7% and SD ratio <1.25) tended to have greater cardiovascular risk than those managed at an HbA1c <7%, or HbA1c >or=7% with an SD ratio >or=1.25 (61% versus 39%; p = .096).Independently, more aggressive HbA1c reduction and higher SD ratio values were not independently associated with a reduction in cardiovascular outcomes. Combining the parameters, it would appear that patients managed at higher glucose values and on the insulin demand side of the model may have increased cardiovascular risk. Based on these findings, it is pertinent to conduct subsequent works to refine SD ratio estimates and apply the model to larger, long-term T2DM cardiovascular outcome trials. J Diabetes Sci Technol 2010;4(2):382-390.

Project description:INTRODUCTION:Dapagliflozin is an orally active inhibitor of sodium-glucose co-transporter 2 (SGLT2) that is indicated for use in adults with type 1 diabetes (T1DM) (with a body mass index (BMI) of at least 27 kg/m2 in Europe, no such BMI limit in Japan), when insulin alone does not provide adequate glycaemic control. The aim of this study was to evaluate changes in glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c), body weight and insulin dose following discontinuation of dapagliflozin for the management of T1DM in the DEPICT clinical trial programme. METHODS:The interrelationship between treatment discontinuation, insulin requirement and outcomes post-discontinuation was evaluated using descriptive summary statistics and linear regression modelling. Data were analysed from individuals with T1DM discontinuing dapagliflozin in DEPICT-1 or DEPICT-2 (unplanned or end of study). HbA1c and body weight were measured over the 56-week study period (consisting of a 52-week treatment period and a 4-week follow-up period) at 4-8 weekly intervals. Following discontinuation of dapagliflozin, 1-year change in HbA1c (%) and weight (kg) following discontinuation of dapagliflozin was estimated; total daily insulin doses were descriptively summarised. RESULTS:Of the 1059 individuals that received dapagliflozin during the DEPICT trials 91 met the eligibility criteria and were included in the analyses of HbA1c and body weight. The mean duration of follow-up was 209 days in both analyses. Following dapagliflozin discontinuation, estimated annualised changes in HbA1c and body weight were + 0.99% (95% CI 0.39, 1.59) and + 3.75 kg (1.65, 5.86), respectively. An increase in insulin dose was observed around the time of discontinuation; insulin dose in the 2-week post-discontinuation was + 3.6 IU and + 4.4 IU higher with dapagliflozin 5 mg and 10 mg than 2 weeks pre-discontinuation, respectively. CONCLUSION:Discontinuation of dapagliflozin is predicted to lead to clinically meaningful increases in HbA1c and body weight, in addition to higher insulin doses. These findings are important in the management of people with T1DM among whom insulin is the only existing pharmacological treatment option.

Dataset Information

Weight-HbA1c-insulin-glucose model for describing disease progression of type 2 diabetes.

Publications

Weight-HbA1c-insulin-glucose model for describing disease progression of type 2 diabetes.

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